Current Owners: Would you Buy At 2021 prices?

[Marionnette]

I think DVC, and Disney in general, will see major changes in the coming post-COVID years.The question remains as to whether those changes would excite me enough to buy in. If I were not an owner already, I would hit the pause button on purchasing until I saw what direction DVC and Disney Parks takes in the near future. The last thing that I would want to do is commit to annual or semi-annual vacations at a place that I had lukewarm feelings about. There’s a lot of choices that the Parks Division has made that I am less than thrilled about. And their direction under Chapek has been a series of cuts and additional overpriced experiences over his tenure.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I think DVC, and Disney in general, will see major changes in the coming post-COVID years.The question remains as to whether those changes would excite me enough to buy in. If I were not an owner already, I would hit the pause button on purchasing until I saw what direction DVC and Disney Parks takes in the near future. The last thing that I would want to do is commit to annual or semi-annual vacations at a place that I had lukewarm feelings about. There’s a lot of choices that the Parks Division has made that I am less than thrilled about. And their direction under Chapek has been a series of cuts and additional overpriced experiences over his tenure.

We have pushed pause on an add-on as well. If resale had dropped we would have bought more points despite our concerns.

I feel confident enough experiences will come back to enjoy and we will likely (eventually) get over disappointments like ME being cut. The real deal-breaker for us is the AP. I would not pay for 2 sets (or more) of park tickets every year. I'm struggling to swallow the ticket prices for 1 trip. So, we will go every other year unless we have APs.

I have always had the buy small and add-on / sell off as you go mindset despite larger contracts being a better price per point. I am definitely glad we bought the bare minimum and although our goal (was?) to own about 350 points, I don't think we will ever own a single contract over 75 points.

 

[fumanchu2488]

I think DVC, and Disney in general, will see major changes in the coming post-COVID years.The question remains as to whether those changes would excite me enough to buy in. If I were not an owner already, I would hit the pause button on purchasing until I saw what direction DVC and Disney Parks takes in the near future. The last thing that I would want to do is commit to annual or semi-annual vacations at a place that I had lukewarm feelings about. There’s a lot of choices that the Parks Division has made that I am less than thrilled about. And their direction under Chapek has been a series of cuts and additional overpriced experiences over his tenure.

I bought 2 years ago direct for 100 points and wish I bought more. We were thinking studios every other year but now want 1 BR and are looking at another 50-75 points. Your point about the changes is what is delaying me since I have our trip planned with enough points for the next year to year and a half. However I have a feeling they may be skewing these vacations towards higher end.

The prices now are high, but you shouldn’t compare the price of DVC now to the price of DVC then. You should compare the cost of DVC to the cash stay now and then. For example, if people were paying $50 per point in 1998 but a hotel night was only $175 per night that is the comparison. Now, a studio at RIV is over $700 per night without discount. Maybe $450 with a discount. I think the general cost of DVC is always going to track the same as hotels. The thing every buyer needs to compare is if they value deluxe accommodations. We are locking into the current cost of deluxe rooms. In ten years, a studio at RIV or VGF could be over $1000 per night. People will say the same thing. However, if in 5 years COVID and Chapek have a big impact on WDW and prices of rooms go down, then we lose out.

 

[DVCSunDevil]

I started seriously looking at DVC in 2016. It's been the same ole story around here since then. Always people wondering if current pricing is worth it, etc.

At that time, the whole blue card / white card became a thing. People found the 25 point "loophole" until DVC started gradually raising the minimum. So many people (often those who already have a blue card) saying they'd never buy XX points for the blue card. There was number crunching in every thread.

How about RIV.......NOBODY was going to buy that!!!!! Especially not when the restrictions were announced. lol

I ended up buying BWV at $165 / pt direct in 2017 which meant I was crazy. Ha ha. Yes, I know this one has some genuine concern. I will not be selling in 15 years for a big profit, but it won't be worthless either. I actually hope to use up every last point in 2041 and never make a penny back. That would be fine by me! But the last few months I've seen small BWV contracts (which is what I have) go for $145+ per point. So, I'm not going to take a huge hit even if I need to sell tomorrow.

I was on waitlist for BLT when it was around $190 / pt and remember being so unsure about paying that much. And then it went up to $220 or $225 overnight and I was so mad I didn't get on that list sooner. Suddenly, I would have gladly paid $190 / pt.

So, what's my point? If you want to buy and can afford it, just do it. I've been staying in BWV studios for $140/night or less with the horrible deal I got! Did some people get a better deal? Yup! But it's still better than cash rates and I'll just be happy to be there!

The amount of number crunching that is presented in these discussions is mind boggling. Yet the ironic thing is that a DVC decision doesn't just come down to numbers, there is also the emotion of the Disney bubble and guaranteed vacations/memories into the future. I ran the numbers just like everyone else before I bought into DVC. It comes down to two questions:
1. Do you want to continue visiting WDW into the future?
2. Do you prefer staying in deluxe resorts?
If the answer to both those questions is yes for someone who has been considering DVC, then they should take the plunge. The amount saved on rooms by buying into DVC is unquestionable. So put the long spreadsheets away that try to break down the value of DVC and "Just Do It"! We bought into DVC last year and haven't had one iota of regret.

 

[DVCSunDevil]

That is really interesting. So you could sell those somewhere around $100 per point today - say 3% annual return (on a timeshare!). The price of direct has increased about 5% annual if you think about buying $165 per point direct. If the pace on both of those continue similar to historical - not a bad timeshare to buy in todays dollars either. Who knows if that track record will continue though.

The one thing to remember is that the value of a DVC contract is more likely to be a bell shaped curve. There will be a year when the 2042 resorts start to see the price of what those contracts can fetch on the resale market diminishing. Those 2042 resorts are still going up in price now, but eventually there won't be a "break even" due to the limited amount of years on those contracts and the resale price of those contracts will consequently start going down. Of course, this is all moot if someone doesn't plan on selling their contract (like me). Personally, I think looking at a DVC membership as an investment isn't the smartest way to go about things. It's a luxury spend...you are prepaying for years of deluxe rooms and in exchange you are getting those rooms at an incredible discount. That's the way I looked at it and, as a result, I won't be disappointed later if the resale prices don't hold steady.

 

[fumanchu2488]

The amount of number crunching that is presented in these discussions is mind boggling. Yet the ironic thing is that a DVC decision doesn't just come down to numbers, there is also the emotion of the Disney bubble and guaranteed vacations/memories into the future. I ran the numbers just like everyone else before I bought into DVC. It comes down to two questions:
1. Do you want to continue visiting WDW into the future?
2. Do you prefer staying in deluxe resorts?
If the answer to both those questions is yes for someone who has been considering DVC, then they should take the plunge. The amount saved on rooms by buying into DVC is unquestionable. So put the long spreadsheets away that try to break down the value of DVC and "Just Do It"! We bought into DVC last year and haven't had one iota of regret.

10000% agree. Those are the only 2 criteria that really matter. Think about it from Disney’s perspective. They are willing to give discounted deluxe accommodations IF you are willing to sign on the dotted line that you will come for 50 years. I believe that whatever the current pricing is will always be better than staying cash. Resale better than direct potentially.

Regret will come if you start to lose interest or value in WDW. It will not come from the cost of the membership.

 

[bobbiwoz]

We added on, just 25, VGF direct for Christmas, so, yes we would.

 

[RaymOOOnd]

To all current DVC owners who bought in awhile back.... would you do so again?

just went to DVC website to look at direct Disney costs: I was SHOCKED.

For 5 days a year. Family of 4.
150 points recommended.

$30,000!!!

When I talk to folks who bought in 10 years ago+, they got a steal.
I am asking non-Florida residents.

when you take into Costs of travel, tickets, etc., does it make sense to still purchase today?

RESALE market hasn’t softened much at all..

A previous DIS poster mentioned their all-in costs was equivalent to paying cash for their current home.

LOL no

 

[DCLDVC1]

I'd consider buying resale but not direct.

 

[RoseGold]

There will be a year when the 2042 resorts start to see the price of what those contracts can fetch on the resale market diminishing. Those 2042 resorts are still going up in price now, but eventually there won't be a "break even" due to the limited amount of years on those contracts and the resale price of those contracts will consequently start going down.

There will still be a "break even." The 2042 resorts still have value against cash bookings, and that has still more than held up, even at the insane pricing. That's why BRV is so cheap and BCV is so expensive. It's still WAY cheaper to buy BCV points than pay cash at Yacht Club. But I agree, I would't buy 2042 right now, unless I planned to run out the clock. I can imagine a price at which an expiring BRV contract is worth it just for SAP for 10 years.

The 2042 resorts expiring, and the gigantic SSR/OKW expiring in 2057 will take a huge amount of points out of the system. IMO, that will make remaining resale worth more, as it still has value against those cash rooms, and the resorts of last resort aren't even in the mix anymore.

BLT's chart already looks quaint compared to RIV's, which I view as significantly worse location. I would expect whatever the new, mediocre location DVC is, it will have a chart that exceeds VGF. Assuming point escalation continues, the post-2057, pre-RIV resorts will have charts that look better and better, and their resale should reflect that, like BCV/BWV right now. I bought VGF with this timeframe in mind, and SSR with a shorter timeframe in mind.

 

[DVCSunDevil]

But I agree, I would't buy 2042 right now, unless I planned to run out the clock. I can imagine a price at which an expiring BRV contract is worth it just for SAP for 10 years.

Funny enough, we considered the BCV contract expiring in 2042 as a benefit to buying at one of those resorts right now. We are in our 40s and have kids in their teens. We bought BCV resale last February (saved $100/pt versus direct) and really liked the idea of "only" having 22 years of enjoyment before the contract expires. We will be in our late 60s when our contract expires and our kids will be in their mid/late 30s. That's the perfect age to have our DVC membership conclude. And we will have gotten a solid 22 years of enjoyment out of our DVC membership. We looked at Riviera, but do we really want to be locked into DVC until we are almost 100 years old? And yes, I know we could always hand it down to our kids. But there is no guarantee our kids would want to take over the contract at that point, there is no guarantee that DVC will still be attractive at that point, and our hope is that or kids will be financially secure enough to buy into DVC on their own if they want to continue this "tradition". That's just my $0.02 on our thought process...each person and situation is different.

 

[DVCSunDevil]

There will still be a "break even." The 2042 resorts still have value against cash bookings, and that has still more than held up, even at the insane pricing.

Sorry for the 2nd reply...I somehow missed these opening two lines. I didn't have my morning coffee yet
You are correct there will still be a break even involved with owning a DVC contract, but that is only true if the contract prices start plummeting as 2042 get closer. That's why the resale prices will be more of a bell shaped curve, as I said in my earlier post. For example, in 2032 resale prices won't be able to be what they are now. If they were, then that contract purchase price will only be able to be spread out over 10 years. So a $30,000 200 point BCV resale purchase would cost $3,000 per year. Tack on the estimated MFs of $1,892 and the yearly cost is now $4,900. Depending on what time of year the contract holder takes their vacation, that amount is actually more expensive than cash bookings. There would be no break even in that situation. Add in the hassle and time of a resale purchase and it wouldn't make sense at any level to buy a resale contract in that situation. Now instead of that 2032 example, imagine the year is 2037 and there is only 5 years remaining on the contract. No one would be paying today's resale prices for a 5 year contract...it would be a massive losing situation. However, if resale prices follow that "bell shaped curve" model then the prices will start coming down commensurate with the amount required to keep the savings experienced well above that break even point. I haven't run the numbers to see when those contract price drops will likely start occurring, but that time will come.

 

[Yinn]

To all current DVC owners who bought in awhile back.... would you do so again?

just went to DVC website to look at direct Disney costs: I was SHOCKED.

For 5 days a year. Family of 4.
150 points recommended.

$30,000!!!

When I talk to folks who bought in 10 years ago+, they got a steal.
I am asking non-Florida residents.

when you take into Costs of travel, tickets, etc., does it make sense to still purchase today?

RESALE market hasn’t softened much at all..

A previous DIS poster mentioned their all-in costs was equivalent to paying cash for their current home.

2 years ago, I thought the same thing. Then direct prices went up. 1 Year ago, I thought the same thing, then resale prices creeped up.

I'm sure every new year folks look at it and go - wow, look how much it went up...and it goes up. It's a little bit like today's stock market. Is it sky high? Absolutely. Could it go down? Yes Sir. Might it keep going up? Sure.

If it goes up, would a year ago been a good time to buy?

 

[BlackTea]

So a $30,000 200 point BCV resale purchase would cost $3,000 per year. Tack on the estimated MFs of $1,892 and the yearly cost is now $4,900. Depending on what time of year the contract holder takes their vacation, that amount is actually more expensive than cash bookings.

That is 11 years from now, cash booking for a similar room could cost 8k, then 4900 will be very attractive.
My opinion, price of cash booking is another key factor deciding resale price, if the contract provides an opportunity to save >30% off rack rates, there will be buyers. An extreme example, if one 16 points per night studio asks for 3k cash at BCV in 2041, then it is reasonable for a contract to sell at 140 per point, just like today.

 

[upritbass]

We will be in our late 60s when our contract expires and our kids will be in their mid/late 30s. That's the perfect age to have our DVC membership conclude.

Ah, the exuberance of youth. I hate to break it to you, but you will reach your late 60s in the blink of an eye. And you may find that the Disney experience is better than it was in your 40s.

But you are a Sun Devil, not a Wildcat, so who knows...

 

[CarolMN]

Ah, the exuberance of youth. I hate to break it to you, but you will reach your late 60s in the blink of an eye. And you may find that the Disney experience is better than it was in your 40s.

But you are a Sun Devil, not a Wildcat, so who knows...

This Gopher agrees with you.

 

[danissmart]

People will buy. Would I? No chance. I wouldn't buy in for half of what they are asking. I have 170 points. 100 of which are going to expire this year. 170 from this year are banked into next year. I have no desire to go to WDW and I fear that the Covid theater will never end.

 

[scbruno]

Even as a long time member who bought a long time ago and where my direct purchase price is well under current rescale prices I may buy a small add on contact direct only for the ease of adding on. Anything over 100 points I would buy resale.

 

[DVCSunDevil]

That is 11 years from now, cash booking for a similar room could cost 8k, then 4900 will be very attractive.
My opinion, price of cash booking is another key factor deciding resale price, if the contract provides an opportunity to save >30% off rack rates, there will be buyers. An extreme example, if one 16 points per night studio asks for 3k cash at BCV in 2041, then it is reasonable for a contract to sell at 140 per point, just like today.

Yes, but that's my point. The contract resale prices will go down once 2042 gets closer and closer. In your example, $3k is a heck of a lot less than today's resale prices $28k-$30k for that imaginary 200 point resale contract. Absolutely someone will still be able to sell their contract, even up to 2041. But the resale price will have to drop. It's economics 101. Also, would a buyer be willing to go through the resale process for one years worth of points? Why not just rent?

 

[DVCSunDevil]

Ah, the exuberance of youth. I hate to break it to you, but you will reach your late 60s in the blink of an eye. And you may find that the Disney experience is better than it was in your 40s.

But you are a Sun Devil, not a Wildcat, so who knows...

LOL, how true. And don't forget that youth is wasted on the young, so I will probably be wanting to extend my DVC experience when I am in my late 60s

Seriously though, if in my late 50s or early 60s I come to the realization that I want to keep the DVC experience going I will probably look into another contract at one of the other resorts (Riviera or whatever new resort comes along by then). Knowing our vacation habits, I don't think that will be the case...but you never know!

And I will take your last comment to mean that being a Sun Devil means being smarter