Crystal Ball Gazing - Share Price

[Donald D Duck]

Does anyone have a crystal ball they could lend me?

I know there are mixed views of buying extra shares to stay in the club, but I have pretty much decided to do it. Without getting into a lengthy pros and cons I don't see it as a cost as I will always have the shares and could sell them one day.

The only real question is making sure I buy them at the 'right' price. Obviously they are still up a bit from all the WDC buyout rumours so what I need the crystal ball for is to find out if and when they will drop back down. I've been keeping an eye over the last few weeks and each time they gradually drop over a few days they then rebound with a one off big(ish) increase.

So I still have the best part of 18 months or so before renewal and therefore needing the shares, so I have time, but my other concern was what if the exchange rate dipped in that time.

Very roughly speaking on the maths (stick with me!) to buy the 80 shares today would cost roughly £325. Let's say I wait for the price to go down but in that time the exchange rate also goes down to say £1 = €1.12 (not inconceivable) then the shares would have to down to at least €4.55 to still cost me £325.

If in that time the exchange rate went down and the shares stayed level then they will cost an extra £30, hardly life or death, but while I have definitely decided to buy the extra 80 and I want to try and make sure I get them at the best price!

I couldn't find a suitable nerd smiley so this one will do

 

[Carrie_Cat]

Why not buy them little bit by little bit as lots of people are doing on the French forums ? A few every month and you wouldn't notice the cost

 

[DLPdaft]

Why not buy them little bit by little bit as lots of people are doing on the French forums ? A few every month and you wouldn't notice the cost

do you not have buying fees everytime you buy shares in France Carrie? Here its usually around £12, sometimes even more, every time you buy some shares. So buying in dribs and drabs compared to buying all at once could really stack up the buying fee costs.

 

[Gwendolen]

I would be susprised if they go much below €5 and with a good exchange rate on sterling I would go for it, I bought 120 a few months ago before the amount went up and plan to sit on them for a few years If Disney buy back all shares hopefully we will get more than a fiver per share

 

[Donald D Duck]

I would be susprised if they go much below €5 and with a good exchange rate on sterling I would go for it, I bought 120 a few months ago before the amount went up and plan to sit on them for a few years If Disney buy back all shares hopefully we will get more than a fiver per share

See I only bought my 20 shares in the summer so saw around the ¬4 mark to be the norm, but if ¬5 seems about right I'll go for it when I can. As I said I plan to hang on to them anyway, it is different to when I bought my 20 as then I wanted to be sure it was a good price as if we hadn't enjoyed our trip as much as we had then there might not have been more opportunities to use the discount.

I just need to work on saving some money now as I have already applied the same theory on the exchange rate to get some euros now rather than waiting. I could quite happily go knowing that had I waited I might have ¬10 extra euros in my pocket, but would hate it if it went majorly in the other direction. I'd be really bitter about buying food and souvenirs then!

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[netimka]

we also want to buy some more shares in the next 18 months and I', just waiting for a no fee/discount fee day on halifax and will be probably buy some in bits...will keep an eye on this thread maybe someone got this crystal ball and will share with us

 

[DLPDreams]

We are waiting until after our next trip in November to make a final decision, but we too are almost 100% on buying the 80.

I thought of doing it like Carrie says - little at a time, but the fees prohibit that.

Netimka - are you saying you can buy shares without a brokerage fee? I seem to recall you could open a Halifax share account and it could be fee free (mine wasn't but obviously it is now open, so no fee there to charge). But I didn't know it included waiving the share transaction fee too...? If that is the case, then that would be the best way to do it I guess - if the share price isn't too high on the day as well of course.

The exchange rate seems to be waivering at the moment - went into the PO today and unless you are buying £500+ of euros they are offering 1.12 . That is a shocking rate when local travel agents are offering 1.20/1.21 for under £500 worth - slightly more if you get over £500. I need to buy some currency for November but keep putting it off as I'm wanting to buy a few Christmas presents next week, so need to wait until pay day again before I can get currency!

 

[Donald D Duck]

We are waiting until after our next trip in November to make a final decision, but we too are almost 100% on buying the 80.

I thought of doing it like Carrie says - little at a time, but the fees prohibit that.

Netimka - are you saying you can buy shares without a brokerage fee? I seem to recall you could open a Halifax share account and it could be fee free (mine wasn't but obviously it is now open, so no fee there to charge). But I didn't know it included waiving the share transaction fee too...? If that is the case, then that would be the best way to do it I guess - if the share price isn't too high on the day as well of course.

The exchange rate seems to be waivering at the moment - went into the PO today and unless you are buying £500+ of euros they are offering 1.12 . That is a shocking rate when local travel agents are offering 1.20/1.21 for under £500 worth - slightly more if you get over £500. I need to buy some currency for November but keep putting it off as I'm wanting to buy a few Christmas presents next week, so need to wait until pay day again before I can get currency!

You get emails from Halifax every so often, I can't remember the last time I saw a fee free day, but I've seen quite a few where the fee has been reduced to £3.95 I think

€1.12 to the £ is shocking. I actually bit the bullet and ordered some currency online last night and got it at €1.2085, I just couldn't bear the thought of it going down

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[Carrie_Cat]

do you not have buying fees everytime you buy shares in France Carrie? Here its usually around £12, sometimes even more, every time you buy some shares. So buying in dribs and drabs compared to buying all at once could really stack up the buying fee costs.

Not like that no... depending on the broker and the type of shares it's either a % or a fixed amount from 0-x number and so on, it goes up in stages.

If you look at http://www.lobourse.com/choix-du-courtier/comparatif-courtier-petits-ordres.php it for an amount of less than 1000€ spent you can pay between 0,99€ and 5,50€ depending on which broker you choose.

 

[DLPDreams]

You get emails from Halifax every so often, I can't remember the last time I saw a fee free day, but I've seen quite a few where the fee has been reduced to £3.95 I think

€1.12 to the £ is shocking. I actually bit the bullet and ordered some currency online last night and got it at €1.2085, I just couldn't bear the thought of it going down

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Thanks you for that - will keep an eye out - I normally delete the emails without reading them .

I have the money put aside but was thinking of using it towards Christmas presents and replacing next year when we know what we are doing with regard to buying shares .

 

[Ruddles]

Hi All

Halifax have a £3.95 share dealing offer on the 30th October which includes buying and selling international shares from 8am to 9pm. The normal price is £11.95.

However, a word of warning, it says that the share trade needs to execute within those times, and I think that means the French market must be open. So you won't have till 9pm, best to do it in the morning so make sure Halifax completes the trade before the French market shuts (I guess around 4pm UK time.)

Hope that helps someone.

Frank.

 

[Carrie_Cat]

French markets are open from 9.00 - 17.30 FR time so 8.00 - 4.30pm with you

 

[Donald D Duck]

Typical, yesterday they had just dropped below 5 euros, today they have jumped to nearly 6!

At this rate I'll certainly be holding fire until the next Halifax deal day

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[Jonjo]

We have just renewed so have another two years to buy the extra 80 shares. That we are going to do is put some money into our Halifax Share Dealing account every month and keep any eye in the share price and buy them as and when the price is good.

DW had set up a tracker on the Halifax account which will alert her to the share price and trends.

 

[Ware Bears]

Ooh, didn't know you could set a tracker so thank you!

I think that is what we are going to do, put a little aside each month so we have the money ready when the price (*fingers crossed*) is right. Also, you don't miss it as much when you don't have to find it in one fell swoop. DH is going to transfer his into my name which doesn't cost anything so then we only have 50 to buy.

My DD wants to keep her holding so we're going to give her some money each birthday and Christmas which she can then put towards buying more.

Well done Gwendolen on buying so many shares beforehand.

I wonder how many people are actually going to be selling their shares? Many people seem to be either increasing their holding or planning on doing nothing - perhaps not the outcome Disney hoped for???

 

[netimka]

just to bounce with a reminder todays is a £3.95 fee day on Halifax... just got another 20 shares... so 60 more for us and still lots of time...

 

[Donald D Duck]

just to bounce with a reminder todays is a £3.95 fee day on Halifax... just got another 20 shares... so 60 more for us and still lots of time...

Got my shares today, was sitting on the fence about it up to lunchtime waiting for the price to go down a bit but in the end decided to go for it

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[MazdaUK]

I only got mine this year, so if i'm not planning on going again should I keep them or sell them? Dh is for selling as we had to buy a new boiler I'm not so sure..... As my shareholders card remains valid is there any point in keeping them though? Doubt we'll go again in the near future, when our endowment matures mrle likey to go Disney California

 

[netimka]

if you are planing to buy some shares they are now under E5 and on Wednesday 21st November between to trade shares online for only £3.95 commission with Halifax...wish it was after a pay day as would buy some more again... its looks like they are slowly going down with the price...