Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[Mit88]

All I’ll say is consider the source.

This is the same source said that when the parks reopened only the MK resorts would be open. So they’re doubling down on that “rumor” hoping that eventually it pays of in their “I told you so” bingo game.

 

[osufeth24]

This is the same source said that when the parks reopened only the MK resorts would be open. So they’re doubling down on that “rumor” hoping that eventually it pays of in their “I told you so” bingo game.

Sounds like people on this board in regards with another certain global event going on

 

[SaintsManiac]

I'm not discounting the veracity of what you've written but i would argue that the people most affected by this economic downturn are not the percentage that typically spends money on Disney vacations.

As far as the bolded portion - yeah - a lot of people aren't comfortable flying. That's part of it I'm sure.

Yep. My household hasn’t been affected financially, but I do not want to travel right now.

 

[Mit88]

I think it's all in play. Would be surprised if they cut back super hard, but Len Testa said on his podcast this week that they're getting like 4000-6000 guests a day in MK right now. September is coming and once kids are back in school, who knows what attendance will become. I'd be surprised if they close DHS though as it seems to be doing fine, as best as i can tell from Ohio.

Maybe its changed, but from vlogs, and even mentions by podcasters/vloggers it sounds like there havent been many kids in the parks anyway. Maybe thats just little children with the vast difference in pre covid and current times of how the stroller “lots” look, and not necessarily kids that are school age. But if families with children aren’t going, and its mainly just “childless millennials”, then I’m not sure September/October look much different than what it looks like now

 

[Brianstl]

They gotta get back the locals. That's their only ticket right now and fill up Epcot World Showcase.

Many of the locals won't be coming back as often and spending money until tourism picks up. They just don't have the income or they don't feel secure enough about their immediate financial future to spend what they have on entertainment.

 

[nkosiek]

I'm not discounting the veracity of what you've written but i would argue that the people most affected by this economic downturn are not the percentage that typically spends money on Disney vacations.

Yeah, but then there are a whole lot of people who may get furloughed laid off depending upon what happens in the next few weeks with regards to schools and universities. My wife was given a head's up that if they don't get students back on campus she'll probably be furloughed totally for the semester. That's a HUGE hit for us. We were talking about going back during the Fall (we liked the protocols when we were there 2 weeks ago) but now, after that head's up, sorrrryyyyy.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I actually disagree. There are multiple factors and that’s not the top one. The top one is the economy.

1. Consumer spending on non essentials has cratered. It’s terrible. Period. And it’s not recovering anytime soon. This is not a temporary blip.
2. Around 50million people have filed for unemployment since we began this mess. Over 30million are currently collecting benefits. They expect 10-15million of those job losses to be permanent. Currently about 1/3 of mortgages aren’t being paid and about 20million rentals are behind on rent. They expect over 10million evictions to occur in the next couple months.
3. Polling suggest the vast majority of people aren’t willing to fly right now. Most people are staying close to home and driving. And when they are vacationing they are doing so on the cheap.

I wonder how many of those first two relate to people that would travel to WDW. I mean, a trip to Disney is already expensive so a lot of people with lower income jobs that were impacted weren't going anyway

I think #3 is very relevant - I know a lot of people that are wanting to do something for summer vacation but aren't willing to fly there so looking for things closer to hime (either in same state or neighboring one). I have a friend with a rental property outside of Disney and she had a ton of cancellations and my understanding it is more that they don't want to travel (at all or specifically to Florida) more than that they can now not afford it

 

[Farro]

Yeah, but then there are a whole lot of people who may get furloughed laid off depending upon what happens in the next few weeks with regards to schools and universities. My wife was given a head's up that if they don't get students back on campus she'll probably be furloughed totally for the semester. That's a HUGE hit for us. We were talking about going back during the Fall (we liked the protocols when we were there 2 weeks ago) but now, after that head's up, sorrrryyyyy.

Yes. If this keeps going the way it is, almost everyone is going to be hurt by this economically.

Maybe it's my field and also my friends line of work, but so many of us have been hurt financially. Tattoo artists shops closed, my bartender friends (who made a heck a lot of money!) - pfft, chefs, nurses, office staff - jobs lost or furloughed.
It's not just lower-income anymore, they just unfortunately felt it hard and fast.

God, not to mention the music and theatre industry.

 

[Wreckem]

Everyone keeps saying that, but it's just not the truth. I know many people (myself included) who have had 10% or more pay-cuts. Mine is in effect until November, others until end of year and others until "the economy comes back". Not to mention furloughs, loss of PTO time.

Everyone is affected and it's hit our vacation/non-essential budget.

Yeah I’m not sure where she was going with that.

The reality is plenty of those making 6 figures have become unemployed. It seems she believe this has only hit the lower end of the economic spectrum. That’s not accurate at all. Many middle and upper middle class households lost one or both their incomes. Which is obvious by the rate of non payment of mortgages.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Maybe its changed, but from vlogs, and even mentions by podcasters/vloggers it sounds like there havent been many kids in the parks anyway. Maybe thats just little children with the vast difference in pre covid and current times of how the stroller “lots” look, and not necessarily kids that are school age. But if families with children aren’t going, and its mainly just “childless millennials”, then I’m not sure September/October look much different than what it looks like now

obviously just the totals are down so if you cut the total attendance to 25% of total then even if ratio stays the same your strollers are cut to only 25% but your stroller parking areas are the same so will look pretty empty

BUT I do think families are just not willing to travel as much as adults only would - just for fear of what if you get sick there, what if you get stuck and they change the access back to your state or ground all the planes or whatever, just a lot of "ifs"

So if I didn't have kids I think I would be more willing to go somewhere with just my wife and figure we can more easily adapt/deal with things than get stuck somewhere with 3 little kids

 

[osufeth24]

They climbed up from the depths of the community boards to use their last gasp of air to say “doom is coming, and I just needed to tell you....I just need to tell you...I TOLD YOU SO!”

just wait 2 more weeks...

 

[birostick]

Rise 2.50pm @ BG 29.. still a bad day. Been down quite a lot

 

[dlavender]

They climbed up from the depths of the community boards to use their last gasp of air to say “doom is coming, and I just needed to tell you....I just need to tell you...I TOLD YOU SO!”

It's ok to be wrong..

Gotta lay off the salt

 

[Wreckem]

I wonder how many of those first two relate to people that would travel to WDW. I mean, a trip to Disney is already expensive so a lot of people with lower income jobs that were impacted weren't going anyway

I think #3 is very relevant - I know a lot of people that are wanting to do something for summer vacation but aren't willing to fly there so looking for things closer to hime (either in same state or neighboring one). I have a friend with a rental property outside of Disney and she had a ton of cancellations and my understanding it is more that they don't want to travel (at all or specifically to Florida) more than that they can now not afford it

I guess only the wealthy and 10% go to Disney?

There are articles after articles about how the Covid economic crisis is ravaging the middle class right now.

And we haven’t even got to the public sector layoffs yet. They lag 6-18 months behind in general depending on what type of public agency involved. I know of an extremely large school district in Texas that is preparing for a 25% RIF for the 2021-2022 school year. Public sector jobs of all stripes will be decimated over the next year and a half. Two to three times the rate of the Great Recession.

 

[Mit88]

obviously just the totals are down so if you cut the total attendance to 25% of total then even if ratio stays the same your strollers are cut to only 25% but your stroller parking areas are the same so will look pretty empty

BUT I do think families are just not willing to travel as much as adults only would - just for fear of what if you get sick there, what if you get stuck and they change the access back to your state or ground all the planes or whatever, just a lot of "ifs"

So if I didn't have kids I think I would be more willing to go somewhere with just my wife and figure we can more easily adapt/deal with things than get stuck somewhere with 3 little kids

That’s the thing, I don’t have children so anything I would have to say in this regard would be completely opinion based on my end, and very likely ignorant. I wouldn’t judge anyone for bringing their kids if they knew the situation well enough that they could do so as safe as possible, but its obviously just safer for them to just put their trips on hold until its safe enough that they don’t have to make plans to get out of possibly dangerous situations.

But as you said, there are a lot of “ifs” that will impact travel in the fall. Schools opening up. But will they be virtual? Will they be virtual first and then in school later on? These are questions that may be “clearer” in a few weeks, but definitely not sure things, they could change at any minute. If a state suddenly becomes a hot spot but were planning on in person schooling, all of a sudden they have to call an audible and revert back to virtual. And because everything could change so quickly, it makes planning a trip to Florida impossible, and irresponsible.

 

[NoTime42]

Would it really be a net add to revenue though? Having people park hop to Epcot to eat really just shifts dining revenue from the other parks to Epcot.

I think it would. The Kiosks aren’t great values. If the festivals weren’t good, they wouldn’t keep adding festivals.

 

[Wreckem]

I think it would. The Kiosks aren’t great values. If the festivals weren’t good, they wouldn’t keep adding festivals.

In normal times I would agree but with the current attendance numbers does it really?

 

[NoTime42]

Just got a Required MDE update. My virtual queue now shows they are boarding groups 26-30.

 

[Farro]

I think it would. The Kiosks aren’t great values. If the festivals weren’t good, they wouldn’t keep adding festivals.

I definitely spend the most on booze at Epcot than I do any other park.

 

[anthony2k7]

Regarding Park Hopping: I don’t think they’d limit it to Epoct. When it comes back (that’s a when, not an if), expect it to look like getting a fourth FP+ in a different park. That said, I wouldn’t expect that to come back right now.

While anything is on the table at the moment, I’ve also been told that none of the attendance numbers floating around message boards and podcasts are not accurate. There are very few people who could give you those hard numbers right now, and they’re not sharing them with CMs.

Isn't there an financial update call next week? Should we be expecting some substantial operational changes from that?

I'm guessing those rumours Farro posted are based around them currently not meeting that target of "positive contribution". If they have to reveal that they have missed that target on the call then presumably investors would be expecting some kind of action rather than more of the same?