Long post alert.
I think we on this thread can get tunnel-vision sometimes and forget about the larger picture in regard to WDW's reopening. Based on everything I've been told and heard, it's clear to me that Disney is playing the long game here, not the July 11 game here, and they're designing the park reservation system with that in mind. If you think that when the first batch of park reservations are released there isn't going to be massive delays, system errors, and headaches, then you're fooling yourself. Just look at any
shopDisney limited release, VIPASSHOLDER Night release, Moonlight Magic release, etc. They're not building the reservation system to accommodate the massive wave of requests that will surely hit it on Day 1; they're building it to sustain the more moderate demand it will see as the year progresses. It will also be tweaked and changed along the way.
The Shanghai
Disneyland reservation system initially used an algorithm similar to the ones used to sell special event/Disney After Hours tickets online. Essentially, Disney took their desired capacity limit, subtracted a number of tickets to account for APs, then sold that number of tickets through the online portal. They used a separate system or algorithm to allow APs to reserve their spot online. The idea here being that new ticket holders and APs didn't pull from the same pool of reservations. It would theoretically be possible that all AP spots were taken, while new tickets were still available. This is why it took more than three weeks for them to introduce a new algorithm for General Admission ticket holders to be able to use an existing ticket to make a reservation.
This type of system can work in parks like Shanghai and Hong Kong where their audience is more localized and doesn't plan/purchase tickets nearly as far in advance as WDW guests do. They also don't have dated tickets, Park Hopper, wide use of multi-day tickets, or 30,000 hotel rooms to consider. That same set of algorithms would introduce a ridiculous amount of headaches (and potentially shut people out), so they have to build a whole system from the ground up, one that ideally pulls from the same pool rather than Disney creating several pools of reservations. There are still details that need to be worked out, and I'd imagine will hear an update regarding resorts before we see the reservation system roll out, even if that update is "DVC and FW only for the time being."
That's already a complicated situation, but then add the recent uptick in cases around most of the country and the situation becomes even more difficult. In South Florida, which has seen a far greater number of cases than Central Florida, county officials have not attributed the current trends to reopening (some of which start more than a month ago) but rather noncompliance with face masks and social distancing. As someone who has been out and about in the South Florida for the last week or so, I believe they are very much correct. A number of bloggers and vloggers have also reported this in Central Florida, particularly outside of the parks. Why does what happens outside of the parks matter? Because that's where the CMs are when they're not working. Because there are many locals who spend time outside of the parks who then go into the parks. So what does this actually mean for the parks? I think it's likely that they are even more careful and measured with capacity and other restrictions. Any sort of "relaxing" of the stated restrictions gets pushed off further and further as these trends continue (I'm looking at you, September and October people). It also means firmer enforcement than we've seen from Disney before. That's my assessment; you can disagree but I'm not arguing about it, so please don't quote this post if you're going to argue about it. This isn't the place for it.
Disney has always been very cautious, and this situation will be no different. Just a few days ago WESH-TV (the local NBC affiliate for Central Florida) ran a story about if the Central Florida parks reopened too early. You can argue about the merits of that story (but please don't with me, I've had enough with the off topic media-bashing in this thread), but the reality is that stories like that drive a narrative, a narrative Disney absolutely wants no part of. Even if cases persist with this trend a month from now (who knows?), Disney will point to the extensive measures they're taking as evidence of the safety of WDW, and if those local officials are to be believed, theoretically Disney would curtail big waves of new cases by firmly enforcing face masks and social distancing.
As Remy and others have said, it is apparent to me that Disney is preparing a solution as closure-proof as possible. That may seem excessive to some. It may "ruin" the magic. That's okay, but Disney has been very honest with everyone (more so than they usually are). Disney has provided a comprehensive list of what restaurants will and will not be open on June 22. They've even given a glimpse at what the menus will look like. They've provided a detailed list of amenities and services that will and will not be available. I don't want to get into the WDW vs. UOR debate (love them both), but I still couldn't tell you which restaurants at the UOR Loews Hotels are operating. There is certainly a lot more to be released but Disney has also advised that right now may not be the right time for everyone to visit WDW. If you're not okay with that uncertainty, (and I don't say this in a mean-spirited way at all) I'd advise you to cancel. I'm amazed by how many posters here have drawn lines in the sand only for Disney to then cross those lines and then the posters move those lines to something else. Again, now may not be the right time for you to visit WDW.
I want answers just as much as everyone else here, and I've done whatever I can to try to get them, but even folks inside Disney don't seem to have the answers yet. That should tell you a lot about where things stand. I'm far from a Disney apologist (I criticized them for raising the prices at Topolino's yesterday lol), but I also recognize the operational nightmare that is reopening a resort as large as WDW (with so many moving parts) in the middle of a pandemic. More to the point, one thing I've learned from ticket price increases is that my wallet speaks more than my mouth does. I can get worked up on here about how ridiculously expensive my AP is each year, but I'm still renewing anyways. The only message that sends to Disney is that I'm okay with the increases. If you're really upset about this, then again, I'd advise you to cancel. At the very least, you'd be giving yourself a rest and it might make your next trip that much better or more special, but arguing on here is going to get you nowhere.
I would love to stay at the Royal Pacific, looks gorgeous!
