Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[skippytx]

From CM friends close to the unions
The union is at the table with disney. My guess is that they were waiting for the stimulus package with the payroll tax portion. That's what Disney had asked for, a relief of payroll taxes. Not sure if a deferment of tax is enough to push them to pay the cast

I think this is one of the big things delaying the announcement, if they keep paying CM's or not. The other is the stock price. Shares are way up the last week from a record low, I'm going to wager they announce things Friday after the markets close. If this is a big part of it, it's a disservice to folks with reservations and planned trips. They've had to have known for a while now, and they're sandbagging the announcement isn't doing anyone any favors.

 

[OnceUponATime15]

Here's my prediction: Disney will reopen for Memorial Day and will be reopened for good.

Bill Gates said China's timeline was 8 weeks. He also said that we should start seeing progress in about 20 days. I think that might be a tad premature, but here in NJ that progress should start the 1st or 2nd week of April.

What he didn't say in the article is the curve remains flat! I know China is still slow to get back to normal, but this is a very positive sign.

Not sure that this is a realistic comparison by Mr Gates. It’s apples and oranges.

The difference in the spread of the virus in China as opposed to the spread in the US - is the quick and complete handling of the crisis in China once it was realized what was happening. It was a full and complete shut down, not piece meal. Everything at the epicenter of Wuhan province was completely & immediately closed from businesses and schools to public transit and Lunar New Years social gatherings. The full closure of the country came very quickly after that. The World Health Organization had the highest praise for how things were done - holding them up as a model to be emulated.

A lack of national leadership combined with a State by State handling of this crisis in often times slow and incomplete responses and a scary lack of resources could mean a very different outcome in terms of timeline and length. There are still those who hold the power who believe that this is a gross over reaction.. just last night one State Governor overturned the counties in his state who had enacted their own shelter in place or social distancing requirements. Not helpful and from what we know works - it’s ill advised.

Strong clear limits hopefully in the short term is what will get things returning to normal quicker.. what the new normal is remains to be seen.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The US has now passed the cases in Spain, is less then 500 cases from those in Italy.. and at this rate will surpass China in the next few days.

A frightening reality check

 

[Brianstl]

I don’t think the stock price is a worry on the announcement. The market doesn’t think the Disney parks are opening soon.

 

[xuxa777]

I don’t think the stock price is a worry on the announcement. The market doesn’t think the Disney parks are opening soon.

Totally agree, Disney stock is moving on much much larger issues and news and is not going to move on delay in an annoucement or payroll taxes. The market has already priced in a delay of a closure of at least 3-4 months and loses in the 10s of billions.

Bet they are glad they got Disney+ running before all this

 

[mshanson3121]

If the Sentinel is already reporting, then Disney better hurry up. No excuse anymore.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/cor...0200326-zth6hapgp5cg5aywamfhaki7rq-story.html

 

[mattpeto]

Not sure that this is a realistic comparison by Mr Gates. It’s apples and oranges.

The difference in the spread of the virus in China as opposed to the spread in the US - is the quick and complete handling of the crisis in China once it was realized what was happening. It was a full and complete shut down, not piece meal. Everything at the epicenter of Wuhan province was completely & immediately closed from businesses and schools to public transit and Lunar New Years social gatherings. The full closure of the country came very quickly after that. The World Health Organization had the highest praise for how things were done - holding them up as a model to be emulated.

A lack of national leadership combined with a State by State handling of this crisis in often times slow and incomplete responses and a scary lack of resources could mean a very different outcome in terms of timeline and length. There are still those who hold the power who believe that this is a gross over reaction.. just last night one State Governor overturned the counties in his state who had enacted their own shelter in place or social distancing requirements. Not helpful and from what we know works - it’s ill advised.

Strong clear limits hopefully in the short term is what will get things returning to normal quicker.. what the new normal is remains to be seen.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The US has now passed the cases in Spain, is less then 500 cases from those in Italy.. and at this rate will surpass China in the next few days.

A frightening reality check

If our lockdown is behind what China did, things still should to stabilize at some point in April.

 

[MickeyWaffles]

I’m surprised they haven’t announced anything yet, but I’m also guessing this is pretty complicated internally. There could
be a messaging dispute - disagreements on setting another unrealistic date, etc. They wouldn’t necessarily want to say closed until further notice either. And they don’t want to overshoot and stay closed later than they need to be.

My very personal opinion without anything to back it up is that there is an internal disagreement here on how to proceed.

 

[xuxa777]

I am not suprised, they still have another week. Also there isn't an internal struggle, Disney knows they won't be open until late may at the earliest. Any delay is just to handle the customer service issues. Once they postpone officially, call volume will skyrocket and make many many more customers angry they can't get anyone on the phone. Just look back at all the panic threads where people did just that the last time,this time will be worse.

Their staff is working from home and it going to be much more of an issue. Let them get their systems in place, they have another week to do that. I imagine just figuring out how to route the phone calls to their staff's home/cell phones are just one of many nightmares.

It would be a customer service nightmare to announce to soon. No one is being hurt by the delay, everyone is getting their money back etc etc.

 

[jarestel]

Anyone who knows isn't saying and those who are saying don't know. So at the risk of stating the obvious, each speculative post comes with an implicit IMO. So IMO, Disney isn't up to anything nefarious by not announcing their post April 1 plans, they just haven't announced them yet. But at least it gives us something to do in the meanwhile!

 

[MickeyWaffles]

Their isn't an internal struggle, Disney knows they won't be open until late may at the earliest.

I agree, they know they are not opening for a long time. I do think there could be disagreements on what they’re going to say next and when they’re going to do it based on a number of factors since this is unprecedented. And of course, just my opinion

 

[mshanson3121]

It would be a customer service nightmare to announce to soon. No one is being hurt by the delay, everyone is getting their money back etc etc.

Actually many people who booked outside of Disney can't get their money back until Disney cancels.

 

[OnceUponATime15]

If our lockdown is behind what China did, things still should to stabilize at some point in April.

The problem is that there is no constant national lockdown. People are still moving freely and there are no mandatory 14 day isolation periods for those traveling from deeply infected areas to other parts of the country. Except in the case of those traveling from the NY state airports to Florida- where they must self isolate for 14 days. (and there are those already figuring out how to circumvent that requirement by driving to another state & flying out from there.)
In China there was no movement around the country at all.

Without lockdowns of all persons, with the few exceptions of essential service providers.. the virus will be a challenge to contain enough to “flatten the curve” The other challenge is that without complete self isolation, those who are asymptomatic and very, very contagious- are out there at large unknowingly infecting those they come in contact with.

Disney has not announced a plan to re open because the virus is still on the uptick. Once cases and deaths stop climbing, flatten out and begin a daily decline in numbers.. an educated decision made with the safety of their guests first & foremost in mind will be made and announced.

Given what the current data shows.. mid April is likely too optimistic. Mid June could happen - depending on how this all plays out over the next month to six weeks.

I get the desire to get things going.. we canceled our May 30th to June 6th trip too. It was heartbreaking. But as most things in life - wishing doesn’t make it so

 

[hertamaniac]

The market has already priced in a delay of a closure of at least 3-4 months and loses in the 10s of billions.

I don't see it that way at all. Once the realization of lost revenue comes to fruition on the quartlery P&L statements, that's when the stock price will reflect it's value.

 

[fsjking]

Not sure that this is a realistic comparison by Mr Gates. It’s apples and oranges.

The difference in the spread of the virus in China as opposed to the spread in the US - is the quick and complete handling of the crisis in China once it was realized what was happening. It was a full and complete shut down, not piece meal. Everything at the epicenter of Wuhan province was completely & immediately closed from businesses and schools to public transit and Lunar New Years social gatherings. The full closure of the country came very quickly after that. The World Health Organization had the highest praise for how things were done - holding them up as a model to be emulated.

A lack of national leadership combined with a State by State handling of this crisis in often times slow and incomplete responses and a scary lack of resources could mean a very different outcome in terms of timeline and length. There are still those who hold the power who believe that this is a gross over reaction.. just last night one State Governor overturned the counties in his state who had enacted their own shelter in place or social distancing requirements. Not helpful and from what we know works - it’s ill advised.

Strong clear limits hopefully in the short term is what will get things returning to normal quicker.. what the new normal is remains to be seen.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The US has now passed the cases in Spain, is less then 500 cases from those in Italy.. and at this rate will surpass China in the next few days.

A frightening reality check

The official Chinese numbers maybe, but those aren't the real numbers. Too much info came out before they locked everyone down. DO some digging. The numbers are a lot scarier than what they appear on the surface.

 

[Sakiki]

I agree it is a cynical view to think "they are holding onto our money" reasoning. Yes Disney is in business to make money and their prices are crazy on some things, but at this time any delay is purely operational in nature. The short term losses of cancellations of trips in April/May is just a drop in the bucket compared to the long term hit Disney is going to take, with fear of traveling, global recession, is going to hurt the bottom line much more.

You’re not wrong. Our next planned trip to WDW is for December 2021; hopefully we shall see that happen. So much will depend though on the state of the global economy and as we’re in the UK particularly on the state of the airline industry...

 

[xuxa777]

Actually many people who booked outside of Disney can't get their money back until Disney cancels.

Correct, but the point is Disney is going to cancel and they will get their money back

 

[xuxa777]

I don't see it that way at all. Once the realization of lost revenue comes to fruition on the quartlery P&L statements, that's when the stock price will reflect it's value.

Any investor that hasn't already realized the P&L is shot for the next year isn't paying attention

 

[hertamaniac]

Any investor that hasn't already realized the P&L is shot for the next year isn't paying attention

Depends on the industry/sector.

 

[xuxa777]

 

[J-BOY]

Actually many people who booked outside of Disney can't get their money back until Disney cancels.

That's not Disney's responsibility, though. Sounds like it's the fault of whatever company/individual is responsible for the booking.