Crowd predictors and planning

[Helen Gregson]

I'm in the process of mapping out our 11/1-11/6 trip. How much should I let the park crowd predictors influence my plans? Especially when the different sites are completely conflicting?

Do I just ignore everything, and do what works best for us?

 

[dolewhipdreams]

Which sites have you been using?

One thing to note for any AK crowd predictions is that everyone is speculating on how Pandora will shift those so be sure to take any AK crowds with a grain of salt.

 

[Helen Gregson]

I'm using Kenny the Pirate and Undercover Tourist.

 

[dolewhipdreams]

Those aren't bad but you're correct, they do tend to contradict.

I subscribe to Touring Plans (it's less than $15/year) and they have crowd predictions based on hard core data and statistical analysis. They are the most accurate, plus they include expected wait times which is very helpful in setting up plans for your days. Not only that but the actual touring plan set up is great for those like myself who go crazy about planning every detail.

 

[Helen Gregson]

Great, thanks. That sounds helpful.

 

[dolewhipdreams]

A general rule of thumb is try to stay away from Epcot during the weekend if you can as it will be packed for F&W and the race events.

 

[MooseBucks]

I only used Touring Plans for the first time on my last trip and found their estimated wait times plus crowd levels to be inaccurate.

 

[Praying Colonel]

I may use crowd level predictors to help me choose when to go to WDW, but I rarely use it to influence my plans after that. I'm more interested in EMHs, park hours and what parks are having special events on which days. If I know those things and have a decent plan in place, I figure I'm OK.

 

[dolewhipdreams]

I only used Touring Plans for the first time on my last trip and found their estimated wait times plus crowd levels to be inaccurate.

Not certain when your trip was but I know they very recently redid their algorithm based on some shifting trends and mentioned that they had been a little less than accurate recently. I can only judge from my couple of trips since using them but it's seemed pretty close to me.

But as with all estimation software, it is just an estimation and sometimes humans do wacky things that robots can't predict! @Praying Colonel has a good point of not getting too tied up in the crowd predictions for a certain day and go where you believe is the best for your plan

 

[JodyLynC]

I am reluctant to spend money on Touring Plans myself since their reviews on these boards are quite mixed. Undercover Tourist seems to be the exact opposite of Kenny the Pirate and Easy WDW. Easy WDW doesn't put their calendars out in advance so you have to view last year's and hope it applies to the current year.

 

[dkrauss]

I've been using Kenny the Pirate (even tho I do have TP). I generally go with his GREEN parks.........and I try to stay true to No MK on Mondays.........and avoid Epcot on weekends. Interestingly.......during our upcoming November Jersey Week trip our plan completely goes against that.....................I'm travelling with first timers ............ We'll see I guess.

Doug

 

[unrequited23]

The customizable (make your own) touring plans with estimated walk times and wait times figured in, as well as, attractions numbered and labeled on a map made Touring Plans worth it to me not the crowd predictors. Then again, we are taking two sets of grandparents and two kids with us this time.

 

[MooseBucks]

The customizable (make your own) touring plans with estimated walk times and wait times figured in, as well as, attractions numbered and labeled on a map made Touring Plans worth it to me not the crowd predictors. Then again, we are taking two sets of grandparents and two kids with us this time.

I think YMMV for those. If you're familiar with the parks and what times are best for certain attractions the plans aren't that good. They have a ton of data around FP+ availability yet they will tell you to wait for something that you could easily get a FP+ for later in the day.

The main upside to TP is their reservation finder.

 

[jerseyjersey]

We're going around the same time (arriving 11/3) and the crowd calendars for early November are definitely all over the place!

I'm tending to think it will be on the more crowded side, since that's Wine and Dine race weekend and leading into Jersey Week, which I heard from several Disney fanatic friends was a crowded time last year (which the historical crowd info seems to support). We are trying to plan for the worst and hope for the best, as far as crowds!

 

[Hopefully]

I did a quick search on TP for the predictions for your dates. Here's the crowd level out of 10 for each park.

A general rule of thumb is try to stay away from Epcot during the weekend if you can as it will be packed for F&W and the race events.

Touring Plans is a business that sells subscriptions to this data. I do not believe you can repost it here

 

[dolewhipdreams]

Touring Plans is a business that sells subscriptions to this data. I do not believe you can repost it here

My bad- I've removed it!!

 

[Grace&Carolinesmom]

We have used Josh's crowd calendars at easywdw for years. It has always been very accurate for our trips. Although he isn't doing them far in advance as in previous years, for our upcoming August trip, I printed last year's August calendar. I am assessing his strategy in general for the month and days of the week, adjusting it for this year's calendar, and tweeking it around what I am predicting will be heavier crowds for AK on Fri, Sat, and Sun given weekenders and locals wanting to experience the new Pandora.

We are a rope drop family that avoids parks with early EMH, takes mid-day breaks, and returns to a different park in the evening. For families with a different touring style, YMMV.

 

[LucyBC80]

I've been using Kenny the Pirate (even tho I do have TP). I generally go with his GREEN parks.........and I try to stay true to No MK on Mondays.........and avoid Epcot on weekends. Interestingly.......during our upcoming November Jersey Week trip our plan completely goes against that.....................I'm travelling with first timers ............ We'll see I guess.

Doug

No MK on Monday's used to be the base of all my plans! AVOID MK ON SATURDAYS AND MONDAYS was written right on the first line of my spreadsheet. Now I look at my December plans and I'm going to MK every freaking Monday of our 3 week vacation. Doing Morning EMH and hopping to another park in the afternoon. Let's see how that's gonna work!

 

[VikingInMouseEars]

We have always found Touring Plans to be as accurate as any of them. They have a phone app tht makes checking wait times while you are in the park very convienant. One thing to keep in mind is that people have different ideas on whats crowded which leads to a lot of the inaccuracy complaints. I may walk into a room that has 10 poeple in it and feel the need to escape and you walk into the same room with 20 poeple and feel totally uncrowded. They say that most people naturally go a certain direction when they enter the park (I think it was counter clockwise) so if you stay with the crowd your crowd level experience will be vastly different than if you broke off and went the opposite direction, at least until later when the crowds tend to spread out. Plus there really aren't any super slow days anymore, at least that I have been lucky enough to experience, so what 10 years ago might have been a moderate day or 4 or 5/10, or yellow or what ever that particular crowd calendar called it, today that might be the blue or green or 2/10 rating. Anyway, food for thought.

 

[dkrauss]

@LucyBC80 I know what you mean Our November trip last year we had a MK Monday............and AGIAN for our Nov trip this year we've planned a MK Monday! We're traveling with family who don't do Disney at all............we arrive on Sunday..........and of course the first park they want to go to is the MK. Your plan of arriving early and hopping in the afternoon.....is a great idea. In the end you do the best you can with it all...........sometimes you just can't get around timing .

Have a great trip!

Doug