Crowd predictions vs actual?

[a*lil*bit*goofy]

hello!
Looking at this past January crowds etc to see what to expect this coming Jan. I notice on Josh's crowd calendar that Jan 3rd-ish on is level 4 on average. Race weekend goes up a bit.

Is this accurate? I was expecting to see crowds higher, rated 7/8/9?

Curious to thoughts and maybe experiences of those who were there this past jan?

We are travelling Dec 30-jan9 2018. We know those first few days are busy. Lol.

 

[BigredNole]

It all depends on what they measure the crowd calendar against. Slam packed, melt your face off crowded is now a 5. 5 years ago, that was a 10.

 

[Amelia :)]

If the schools are out, it's busy.

 

[Mom2Stitch]

After what was suppose to be a low crowd time in September a couple of years ago I learned my lesson. Plan for 10's no matter what the crowd calendars say and if they are less than that be happy and pat yourself on the back for being prepared. If you get up early, have patience, and a Mickey shaped treat of some variety you will have a wonderful time .

 

[Klayfish]

It's completely subjective. I'm not a fan at all of the "crowd calendars". What you judge the crowd on using a 1-10 scale depends on how you interpret it. I have no clue what a 5 is vs a 10 vs a 2. All I can tell you is if you took 10 people into WDW on the same day and asked them to rate the crowd level, you'd likely get 7 or 8 different answers. Personally, if MK on Xmas Day is a 10, an "average" day is a 3 or a 4, it's not that big of a deal to me. To others, it is. Doesn't make anyone wrong or right.

WDW is crowded, always will be. Holidays are more crowded than non-holidays/special events. Pretty simple.

 

[mountdew1]

That time of year can vary wildly, really dependent upon when the holidays exactly fall and correspondingly, when schools are on vacation. If NYE is on say a Weds or Thursday, then schools may still have that whole week off, making 1/2, 3 and 4 busier. But if NYE falls on say a Sat - Mon, most schools will be back in session the tail end of that week for 1/2-1/4 could be pretty slow.

 

[Gehrig1B]

We were there January 1-7 this year. The only day the parks were not extremely crowded was the day it rained and got cold as a front came through. Wait times for most E-ticket rides were 60+ minutes every day after 11:00 am. I would expect crowds every day first week in January. Get to the parks early, get your FP+'s set up for late morning, early afternoon, then go for extra FP's later. If you are thinking about standby lines they will be long for most rides.

New Year's Day is a Monday so I would not expect many students to return to school any earlier than Wednesday, some may have the entire week off.

 

[Traver Freeman]

If you get up early, have patience, and a Mickey shaped treat of some variety you will have a wonderful time .

This ^^^^^

 

[Oswin]

I don't put a lot of stock into crowd calendars after the past few years of crowd trends. There really are only two kind of crowds at wdw now: packed and insanely packed.

 

[icc2515]

It's always crowded these days. Very crowded. But one thing is for sure. Very crowded and 70 degrees in Jan is a lot better than very crowded and 100 degrees in July.

 

[memo10]

Schools went back late this January and probably will next January as well. That said, after the NYE crowd leaves I find January to be very pleasant. We went around that time over Christmas break and it was pretty average.

 

[bramble4]

We were there January 1-7 this year. The only day the parks were not extremely crowded was the day it rained and got cold as a front came through. Wait times for most E-ticket rides were 60+ minutes every day after 11:00 am. I would expect crowds every day first week in January. Get to the parks early, get your FP+'s set up for late morning, early afternoon, then go for extra FP's later. If you are thinking about standby lines they will be long for most rides.

New Year's Day is a Monday so I would not expect many students to return to school any earlier than Wednesday, some may have the entire week off.

I second this! We were there the same dates and didn't expect it to be so packed. Of all the times of year we've visited, early January was definitely the most busy other than June, but it really wasn't even that much better than summer crowds. Transportation ended up being a problem on race day as well, so I would recommend planning ahead for that. Road closures left us stuck on the bus for nearly two hours.

 

[Timothy02359]

To quote a cast member: "It`s always crowded these days"

 

[DISNEY1975]

I was there 03/24 - 04/03. Crowd calendars showed 8's. It felt more like 4's. I was there September 2015. Crowd calendars showed 2's MK felt like 10s most days, other parks around 7s. I dont trust them at all anymore. I really think people go/avoid the parks looking at these, which turn them into the opposite of what it shows.

 

[igrsod]

To quote a cast member: "It`s always crowded these days"

This is so true. We have gone many times, at various times of the year, and the last few years it is always busy. If you are organized, relaxed and just enjoy while you are there, understand that you will not necessarily do everything and only wait in lines if you REALLY want to do an attraction, or better yet FP it, you will enjoy every minute. If you stress, get angry and complain, then it will be less than magical. It's all in your attitude.
I figure if we can survive, Presidents Day weekend mixed with Valentine's Day and a Marathon weekend, and 4th of July weekend, we can survive anything.
We are leaving tomorrow for our first Easter weekend trip, and I've told my daughter we do what we do.... and enjoy our time just being there.

 

[willmccready]

I always refer to the historical crowd calendars at Touring Plans. You can select any day and they will show you what they predicted and what they saw, so you can see for yourself what crowds have been like on those days in years past and how accurate they were at projecting.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

That time of year can vary wildly, really dependent upon when the holidays exactly fall and correspondingly, when schools are on vacation. If NYE is on say a Weds or Thursday, then schools may still have that whole week off, making 1/2, 3 and 4 busier. But if NYE falls on say a Sat - Mon, most schools will be back in session the tail end of that week for 1/2-1/4 could be pretty slow.

This is true. You essentially have heavy crowds through the weekend following new years day. In 2018, Jan 1st lands on a Monday. Many schools around the country have the entire first week of the year off as part of their winter break. So crowds will be very heavy through the 8th. The best possible scenario for low crowds the first week of the year is when new years day lands on a Friday. Crowds clear out on the 3rd and don't pick up again until MLK weekend. We won't see that again until 2021.

Those who say that it is always crowded lack perspective, IMO. For instance - the day after labor day - are the parks as empty as they were 10 years ago on the date? No. But they are far, far, far, far, far from crowded.

 

[GovieMom]

Josh's predictions have been soooo off-base for us that we switched to using Touring Plans instead. He ranked January 3rd of this year as a crowd level 4. Ridiculous. TP predicted a 10, and it was in fact a 10. When New Years Day falls during the week, even on a Monday, many schools will have that entire week off. Better plan on seeing huge crowds that week next year.

 

[a*lil*bit*goofy]

I second this! Transportation ended up being a problem on race day as well, so I would recommend planning ahead for that. Road closures left us stuck on the bus for nearly two hours.

How does that all work? Race is the Sat right? I thought it was done before the parks opened so maybe that day we do Universal?

 

[BuckeyeBama]

How does that all work? Race is the Sat right? I thought it was done before the parks opened so maybe that day we do Universal?

There are 4 main races that weekend - 5k, 10k, half marathon and marathon. They are run, one per day, in that order, from Thursday through Sunday. They start early. The only race still running when the parks are open is the full marathon, run on Sunday. So, on Sunday, the road closures can be a pain, but 2 hour waits sound like something else was involved. The race traffic did not cause a 2 hour bus ride to the parks. I found that the drive to the park is only lengthened by 5-10 minutes on that day.

There are also some road closures on Saturday which have not been fully resolved as the buses are headed to the parks, but that is very limited, with almost no impact on traffic to the parks.

The race weekend really doesn't impact the parks at all.