Crowd Outlook

[clarker99]

"The parks have become much more expensive with complexities,” said Len Testa, who runs the website Touring Plans, which harvested ride data to estimate that attendance is down by 15% this year. “The average guest is spending more, and cutting back the length of stay.”

IMO the attendance being down 15% IMO is the biggest takeaway from that article. WDW hasn't been down that much since 9/11.

Do we think Disney cares about the attendance drop? Do you think maybe they are okay with the financials they are seeing from less guests? This isnt 2018 where the strategy was stuff the parks full. It is a completely different strategy.

People are struggling to understand that Disney has been completely fine with less people entering the gates.

If/when Disney has decided to shift to an increased attendance strategy, we will know instantly as there will be major shift in pricing/discounts.

We are still waiting to see these 'never seen before discounts' that travel agents are reporting about. How far out is this softness? Or is Disney fine with the current situation?

 

[ChipnDale79]

Do we think Disney cares about the attendance drop? Do you think maybe they are okay with the financials they are seeing from less guests? This isnt 2018 where the strategy was stuff the parks full. It is a completely different strategy.

People are struggling to understand that Disney has been completely fine with less people entering the gates.

If/when Disney has decided to shift to an increased attendance strategy, we will know instantly as there will be major shift in pricing/discounts.

We are still waiting to see these 'never seen before discounts' that travel agents are reporting about. How far out is this softness? Or is Disney fine with the current situation?

i dont buy it. ive always believed that disney wants those parks and resorts packed as full as they can at the highest price they can.

there is a negative reaction to the increased pricing as well. If attendance is down, i bet people spend less in disney products elsewhere as well. IMO, and I dont have an MBA or claim to be an expert, making WDW a luxury resort (which is where they are headed) is bad for the company overall.

 

[clarker99]

i dont buy it. ive always believed that disney wants those parks and resorts packed as full as they can at the highest price they can.

there is a negative reaction to the increased pricing as well. If attendance is down, i bet people spend less in disney products elsewhere as well. IMO, and I dont have an MBA or claim to be an expert, making WDW a luxury resort (which is where they are headed) is a bad for the company overall.

They have explicitly stated that reduced crowd capacity and higher pricing is their strategy. It has been stated since re-opening during covid. They are still in a self imposed 25% of capacity attendance strategy. Maybe they don't have to enforce that as much but MK reservations did sell out a week and a half ago. They are not trying to fill the parks.

 

[ChipnDale79]

They have explicitly stated that reduced crowd capacity and higher pricing is their strategy. It has been stated since re-opening during covid. They are still in a self imposed 25% of capacity attendance strategy. Maybe they don't have to enforce that as much but MK reservations did sell out a week and a half ago. They are not trying to fill the parks.

they can state it all they want, it doesnt mean i have to believe it.

I believes its corporate bs speak.

if thats really what they want, its extremely short sighted and will only hurt their business in the long run.

 

[clarker99]

they can state it all they want, it doesnt mean i have to believe it.

Haha. Okay, then.

 

[Jrb1979]

They have explicitly stated that reduced crowd capacity and higher pricing is their strategy. It has been stated since re-opening during covid. They are still in a self imposed 25% of capacity attendance strategy. Maybe they don't have to enforce that as much but MK reservations did sell out a week and a half ago. They are not trying to fill the parks.

That all maybe true. I doubt being down 15% in attendance is what they want either.

 

[ChipnDale79]

Haha. Okay, then.

sorry really lol. i didnt mean for my comment to come off jerky...i reread it..and it for sure did. im sorry!

 

[Smugpugmug]

A few pages ago people were discussing whether this decrease in attendance was JUST Disney or if other parks were impacted too and I'm going to find out tomorrow when I go to Busch Gardens in Tampa. According to the app (which similar to Disney's, sucks), none of the rides have over a 40 minute wait even on weekends. I'm unsure if that's normal this time of year but I remember even a park like Six Flags in NJ having higher waits than that.

 

[Minnie1222]

They have explicitly stated that reduced crowd capacity and higher pricing is their strategy. It has been stated since re-opening during covid. They are still in a self imposed 25% of capacity attendance strategy. Maybe they don't have to enforce that as much but MK reservations did sell out a week and a half ago. They are not trying to fill the parks.

That all maybe true. I doubt being down 15% in attendance is what they want either.

Correct me if I'm wrong! If they're looking for a 25% reduction and only down 15%, does that mean the goal is still not met?

 

[fatmanatee]

they can state it all they want, it doesnt mean i have to believe it.

I believes its corporate bs speak.

if thats really what they want, its extremely short sighted and will only hurt their business in the long run.

They were saying it when revenge travel was exploding, it’s pretty clear that it was a goal of theirs. And yes, it’s probably short sighted.

Going to repeat what I’ve said earlier: I recently looked into a quick weekend trip a few weeks out and there was absolutely no availability for values or moderates. Only availabilities cost over 800 a night. Either they were all sold out or they were holding rooms offline, and there’s been chatter that they’ve been holding rooms offline.

 

[gottalovepluto]

"The parks have become much more expensive with complexities,” said Len Testa, who runs the website Touring Plans, which harvested ride data to estimate that attendance is down by 15% this year. “The average guest is spending more, and cutting back the length of stay.”

IMO the attendance being down 15% IMO is the biggest takeaway from that article. WDW hasn't been down that much since 9/11.

The biggest takeaway to me was UOR was only down 2%. UOR hasn't debuted anything new this year and has all the same weather as Disney (who blamed weather for the bad summer performance). I'm assuming @lentesta 's numbers are accurate I know- but that is a big gap. I don't see what explains consumers leaving Disney faster than UOR beyond pricing and complexity.

I started a thread recently on the resort board discount section about the disappeared holiday hotel offers (D+ and General Public). Disney must feel business is strong enough they don't need those discounts anymore for a good holiday season so maybe a year end surge will turn this all around- or maybe they're desperate to up their hotel operating revenue and sliding back into that Covid era rack rate or don't sell it methodology...

 

[clarker99]

That all maybe true. I doubt being down 15% in attendance is what they want either.

Maybe and we don't actually know if 15% is accurate? We will find out in a couple weeks. I would super shocked if it is actually down 15%. If it is down even 5% that would be wild.

At the same time Oct-Dec 2022 (Q1FY23) was the first full revenge travel quarter for domestic parks. It was a blockbuster record-breaking quarter in terms of Revenue and profit. Looking at the data, there is no possible way they would top Q1FY23 domestically.

The end game is not attendance, it is generating profits. If Disney wanted bursting at the seams parks they could have them. It is much more efficient to have less people in the park and make the same amount of money as having 1000's more.

And for everyone, what I post is 99% not my opinion. I post data and quote Disney earnings calls. So, me pointing out things that contradict a narrative or a persons opinion, it is not me necessarily siding with Disney. It is just telling you what is happening from Disney's side so we can all understand why something may be happening. You definitely don't have to agree. The answers usually bear out in the earnings reports.

 

[clarker99]

The biggest takeaway to me was UOR was only down 2%. UOR hasn't debuted anything new this year and has all the same weather as Disney (who blamed weather for the bad summer performance). I'm assuming @lentesta 's numbers are accurate I know- but that is a big gap. I don't see what explains consumers leaving Disney faster than UOR beyond pricing and complexity.

I started a thread recently on the resort board discount section about the disappeared holiday hotel offers (D+ and General Public). Disney must feel business is strong enough they don't need those discounts anymore for a good holiday season so maybe a year end surge will turn this all around- or maybe they're desperate to up their hotel operating revenue and sliding back into that Covid era rack rate or don't sell it methodology...

When you look at booking a WDW holiday right now. There is no reason to book anything super early. Dining reservations are easy to get, park reservations are easy to get and you won't need them starting Jan 9. You don't need to pre-book fast passes. There is no benefit to booking 6 months ahead and less of a reason to use a travel agent than ever before. You can pretty much book whenever and show up. Nothing is really needed to book ahead.

 

[clarker99]

Correct me if I'm wrong! If they're looking for a 25% reduction and only down 15%, does that mean the goal is still not met?

These are not correlated. The 25% capacity cap relates to park capacity. I don't know the 100% capacity of Magic Kingdom but for easy math lets say it is 100,000 guests. They are currently setting 75,000 as the max allowed in the park on a given day. Early in revenge travel park reservations would sell out for MK regularly and force other guest to other parks.

In terms of attendance. A 15% drop would be comparing October 2022 vs Oct 2023. So again for easy math, if we estimated 70,000 guests in MK last October, that would mean 59,500 this year. 15% would be a staggering drop off. Disney does not give us any raw attendance data, they only list if attendance was up or down based on %. In 2 weeks, we will be able to compare YoY and QoQ to see domestic levels. Also, they will also give hints within the report or on the earnings call as to how WDW and DLR faired.

 

[clarker99]

A few pages ago people were discussing whether this decrease in attendance was JUST Disney or if other parks were impacted too and I'm going to find out tomorrow when I go to Busch Gardens in Tampa. According to the app (which similar to Disney's, sucks), none of the rides have over a 40 minute wait even on weekends. I'm unsure if that's normal this time of year but I remember even a park like Six Flags in NJ having higher waits than that.

Oct - Dec is the busiest period of the year for Disney parks. It has the highest margins and highest demand. I am assuming but Busch Gardens would likely be the same.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Just a 2 cent opinion here, does anyone think that Disneys long term goal is to force all guests to stay in the bubble. They keep talking about limiting the amount of guests in the park, and yet keep adding hotel rooms, seems counter intuitive if they already had enough hotel inventory prior to announcing "limiting" how many are allowed in

 

[clarker99]

Just a 2 cent opinion here, does anyone think that Disneys long term goal is to force all guests to stay in the bubble. They keep talking about limiting the amount of guests in the park, and yet keep adding hotel rooms, seems counter intuitive if they already had enough hotel inventory prior to announcing "limiting" how many are allowed in

They are adding more DVC rooms and have done so by removing cash rooms (See Grand Flo's Big Pine Key conversion and Riveria taking out some Carribean Beach rooms). DVC is has like 93% occupancy rate or something crazy.

EDIT: New Poly tower is also DVC only

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

They are adding more DVC rooms and have done so by removing cash rooms (See Grand Flo's Big Pine Key conversion and Riveria taking out some Carribean Beach rooms). DVC is has like 93% occupancy rate or something crazy.

EDIT: New Poly tower is also DVC only

alright, that makes more sense. Disney may be trying to strong arm return guests into a DVC contract moving forward as well since there is a decent amount of cost savings if you commit to them

 

[HokieRaven5]

They are adding more DVC rooms and have done so by removing cash rooms (See Grand Flo's Big Pine Key conversion and Riveria taking out some Carribean Beach rooms). DVC is has like 93% occupancy rate or something crazy.

EDIT: New Poly tower is also DVC only

Also in the next year converting the Fort Wilderness Cabins to DVC Cabins

 

[ChipnDale79]

Just a 2 cent opinion here, does anyone think that Disneys long term goal is to force all guests to stay in the bubble. They keep talking about limiting the amount of guests in the park, and yet keep adding hotel rooms, seems counter intuitive if they already had enough hotel inventory prior to announcing "limiting" how many are allowed in

i feel like with the elimination of the "magical express", its pushing you out.