Crowd Outlook

[Brian Noble]

velocicoaster

Velocicoaster is absolutely world class--as in one of the best coasters anywhere. It would also be nearly pointless to put it in a Disney park*. Hagrids, on the other hand....that would work.

More generally: Theme park attendance is not a zero sum game. It is not as though X people are going to come in 2026, and the only question is Disney, Universal, or Both. If EU is a hit, it will draw more people to Orlando in total, and Disney will still get their share. That's exactly what happened with the oringinal Potterverse. IOA saw a nice bump in attendance, but Disney just kept chugging along. Rising tides lift all boats.

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*: "It's more intense than you realize, Mickey. It's more intense than he realizes!"

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Velocicoaster is absolutely world class--as in one of the best coasters anywhere. It would also be nearly pointless to put it in a Disney park*. Hagrids, on the other hand....that would work.

More generally: Theme park attendance is not a zero sum game. It is not as though X people are going to come in 2026, and the only question is Disney, Universal, or Both. If EU is a hit, it will draw more people to Orlando in total, and Disney will still get their share. That's exactly what happened with the oringinal Potterverse. IOA saw a nice bump in attendance, but Disney just kept chugging along. Rising tides lift all boats.

-------
*: "It's more intense than you realize, Mickey. It's more intense than he realizes!"

i agree in the short term, it's what happens 5-10 years after it opens that matters

 

[Jrb1979]

i agree in the short term, it's what happens 5-10 years after it opens that matters

If they keep adding to the park I'm sure it will do well after 5-10 years, especially if they continue to add highly themed thrill attractions. The big thing many aren't talking much about is when Epic Universe opens Universal becomes a 4-5 day visit if you want to visit all the parks.

The bigger issue is the lack of major additions coming for WDW any time soon. IMO Tiana isn't going to move the needle much

 

[Brian Noble]

it's what happens 5-10 years after it opens that matters

I believe it still doesn't matter. The Potterverses--especially the first one--were groundbreaking. Disney has responded admirably with New Fantasyland, the Pandoraverse, and Galaxy's Edge, all of which IMO are better examples of placemaking than pretty much anything Disney had done before excepting possibly Disney Sea (which I haven't seen; TDR and HKDL are the only ones still on my to-visit list) or Discoveryland in DLRP. Certainly the most compelling stuff in the US. There is room enough in Orlando for two major theme park resorts.

The bigger issue is the lack of major additions coming for WDW any time soon. IMO Tiana isn't going to move the needle much

I remember exactly the same discussion when Potter 1.0 was under construction. Where is Disney's answer? They have nothing! It worked out just fine. This is a long game.

 

[bryaalre]

If they keep adding to the park I'm sure it will do well after 5-10 years, especially if they continue to add highly themed thrill attractions. The big thing many aren't talking much about is when Epic Universe opens Universal becomes a 4-5 day visit if you want to visit all the parks.

The bigger issue is the lack of major additions coming for WDW any time soon. IMO Tiana isn't going to move the needle much

I agree with you that a big issue for Disney is the lack of major additions. This is not a big deal if we have major announcements like a new land but we only have blue sky concepts. IMO there should be something to look forward to every year. This does not need to be something major but there should be something on the horizon.

If the don't announce anything until D23 next year, than I expect them to make announcements during that event. Even if they don't announce anything behind Magic Kingdom, they can't leave Animal Kingdom the way it is will the hole that is Dinoland.

I disagree that Epic Universe will make it a 4-5 day visit. Depending on the person, you could do UO and IOA in 1 day and unless it's super busy, 2 days max. My last two visits to Universal I accomplished everything in a day and a half without rope dropping or staying till close.

With Epic Universe being so new and will undoubtedly be chaotically busy the first few years, I expect families to forgo UO/IOA in order to max out time at Epic for 2-3 days or do UO/IOA in 1 day.

 

[fatmanatee]

In other news, Uni actually announced their Fast and Furious coaster for USH.

https://wdwnt.com/2023/07/breaking-...cially-announces-fast-furious-roller-coaster/

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

I believe it still doesn't matter. The Potterverses--especially the first one--were groundbreaking. Disney has responded admirably with New Fantasyland, the Pandoraverse, and Galaxy's Edge, all of which IMO are better examples of placemaking than pretty much anything Disney had done before excepting possibly Disney Sea (which I haven't seen; TDR and HKDL are the only ones still on my to-visit list) or Discoveryland in DLRP. Certainly the most compelling stuff in the US. There is room enough in Orlando for two major theme park resorts.


I remember exactly the same discussion when Potter 1.0 was under construction. Where is Disney's answer? They have nothing! It worked out just fine. This is a long game.

i agree with you, the point i am trying to make, (admittedly i think i'm doing a terrible job haha) is that there will be an initial surge and then things will creep back to normal. i don't foresee it elevating tourism in the area for an extended period beyond say 5 years. i could be dead wrong, just a thought

 

[Jrb1979]

i agree with you, the point i am trying to make, (admittedly i think i'm doing a terrible job haha) is that there will be an initial surge and then things will creep back to normal. i don't foresee it elevating tourism in the area for an extended period beyond say 5 years. i could be dead wrong, just a thought

If you look at the last attendance report that came out Universal's 2 parks were ahead of Epcot and Animal Kingdom in attendance. MK will always be tops but IMO Universal is going to continue to cut into the other 3 Disney parks.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

I agree with you that a big issue for Disney is the lack of major additions. This is not a big deal if we have major announcements like a new land but we only have blue sky concepts. IMO there should be something to look forward to every year. This does not need to be something major but there should be something on the horizon.

If the don't announce anything until D23 next year, than I expect them to make announcements during that event. Even if they don't announce anything behind Magic Kingdom, they can't leave Animal Kingdom the way it is will the hole that is Dinoland.

I agree with you, but purely on a selfish level. Disney does not need to do anything to attract guests, as someone who is really into Disney, the more the better from a business perspective they can move as they see fit IMO.

i agree about Animal Kingdom, but I also believe they already had a plan in place. if they are looking to better spread out crowds, AK is where they should be focusing all their attention, HS has been made into a full day park, AK should be next

 

[Smugpugmug]

In other news, Uni actually announced their Fast and Furious coaster for USH.

https://wdwnt.com/2023/07/breaking-...cially-announces-fast-furious-roller-coaster/

Now they need to bulldoze Supercharged down and put this in its place please

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

If you look at the last attendance report that came out Universal's 2 parks were ahead of Epcot and Animal Kingdom in attendance. MK will always be tops but IMO Universal is going to continue to cut into the other 3 Disney parks.

2 parks as in their total attendance, or separated?

 

[Jrb1979]

2 parks as in their total attendance, or separated?

Separated. Studios and Islands each had higher attendance than Animal Kingdom and Epcot.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/202...nce-list-2022-disney-magic-kingdom-tea-aecom/

"Universal Islands of Adventure would be third on the North America list with 11.02 million visitors, an increase of 21%. IOA would be the only theme park in the top 10 list to surpass its 2019 attendance mark, which the report considers the pre-pandemic attractions peak. Neighboring Universal Studios Florida had 10.75 million visitors in 2022, an increase of 20%.

Walt Disney World’s other three theme parks had boosts of at least 25% each, according to the report. Hollywood Studios welcomed 10.9 million people (up 27%); Epcot had 10 million visitors (up 29%); and Animal Kingdom saw 9.03 million guests (up 25%) in 2022."

 

[bryaalre]

2 parks as in their total attendance, or separated?

Seperated.

Though, one thing the list does not detail is unique guests. A lot of writings have pointed out that the lists has attendance numbers for Universal are at 2019 levels and Disney is lagging their 2019 attendance by a noticeable amount for all parks but HS. A big thing to consider is that, IMO is more dumb than park reservations, is that park hopping is still limited.

While only my experience, pre covid, I would park hop once or twice a day. My last 8 day trip, I park hopped twice. I think park hopping has limited the attendance numbers more at Disney than Universal.

However, AKs decline from 13M to under 10M is bad and no amount of park hopping would help close that gap.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Separated. Studios and Islands each had higher attendance than Animal Kingdom and Epcot.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/202...nce-list-2022-disney-magic-kingdom-tea-aecom/

"Universal Islands of Adventure would be third on the North America list with 11.02 million visitors, an increase of 21%. IOA would be the only theme park in the top 10 list to surpass its 2019 attendance mark, which the report considers the pre-pandemic attractions peak. Neighboring Universal Studios Florida had 10.75 million visitors in 2022, an increase of 20%.

Walt Disney World’s other three theme parks had boosts of at least 25% each, according to the report. Hollywood Studios welcomed 10.9 million people (up 27%); Epcot had 10 million visitors (up 29%); and Animal Kingdom saw 9.03 million guests (up 25%) in 2022."

I'm going to be that guy, and argue that the same guests on the same day would be likely to split their time between IOA, & US, Disney is guilty of the same but not to that extreme, EPCOT & MK are full day parks for most, HS is clearly one now as well. AK makes sense to me as lagging

 

[HokieRaven5]

However, AKs decline from 13M to under 10M is bad and no amount of park hopping would help close that gap.

Hopping restrictions and the lack of later evening hours at DAK can be culprits here.

Pandora was designed to be viewed in the evening, but Animal Kingdom outside of the Fall/Winter months is never open late enough to really experience it.

Most guests who start at DAK can be done by noon or so, and with a lack of evening hours it’s not worth it to hop over to DAK vs the other 3 parks.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Seperated.

Though, one thing the list does not detail is unique guests. A lot of writings have pointed out that the lists has attendance numbers for Universal are at 2019 levels and Disney is lagging their 2019 attendance by a noticeable amount for all parks but HS. A big thing to consider is that, IMO is more dumb than park reservations, is that park hopping is still limited.

While only my experience, pre covid, I would park hop once or twice a day. My last 8 day trip, I park hopped twice. I think park hopping has limited the attendance numbers more at Disney than Universal.

However, AKs decline from 13M to under 10M is bad and no amount of park hopping would help close that gap.

AK needs more additions, they are the one park that has been in desperate need since conception, and the last one to really have something done about it.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Hopping restrictions and the lack of later evening hours at DAK can be culprits here.

Pandora was designed to be viewed in the evening, but Animal Kingdom outside of the Fall/Winter months is never open late enough to really experience it.

Most guests who start at DAK can be done by noon or so, and with a lack of evening hours it’s not worth it to hop over to DAK vs the other 3 parks.

agreed raw numbers rarely tell the whole story

 

[BrianL]

Hopping restrictions and the lack of later evening hours at DAK can be culprits here.

Pandora was designed to be viewed in the evening, but Animal Kingdom outside of the Fall/Winter months is never open late enough to really experience it.

Most guests who start at DAK can be done by noon or so, and with a lack of evening hours it’s not worth it to hop over to DAK vs the other 3 parks.

AK has got to figure out evening hours. I know they tried, but everyone hated Rivers of Light because it wasn't bombastic enough. They can do it thoguh - add some all-time-of-day attractions and a good show. The only things that can't reallb be done at night are the animal trails and the Safari (I know they tried). Pandora is great at night!

 

[irlandaise]

AK has got to figure out evening hours. I know they tried, but everyone hated Rivers of Light because it wasn't bombastic enough. They can do it thoguh - add some all-time-of-day attractions and a good show. The only things that can't reallb be done at night are the animal trails and the Safari (I know they tried). Pandora is great at night!

I don't know what Disney's animal care policies are regarding "offstage time," but there should be an acceptable way to have some nocturnal animals at Conservation Station or another controlled environment to draw evening visitors.

I personally would love to see the bats after dark! And everyone knows that cats are more active at night. A smaller African cat like one of those gorgeous sand cats would be perfect for this.

 

[BrianL]

I don't know what Disney's animal care policies are regarding "offstage time," but there should be an acceptable way to have some nocturnal animals at Conservation Station or another controlled environment to draw evening visitors.

I personally would love to see the bats after dark! And everyone knows that cats are more active at night. A smaller African cat like one of those gorgeous sand cats would be perfect for this.

Oh, sure. For some animals, nighttime is a more naturally active time and it may be appropriate to have them available for viewing at night. As long as the welfare of the animals comes first then I have no problem with that. They do have to get most of the animals offstage though for care and feeding and rest, etc. Apparently, they know what time to head back to their enclosures to get some dinner, and file on in.