crowd level

[kimmbagley]

I gotta tell ya, each time I look at Len's crowd predictions I get seriously bummed. When we first started planning, our days were at about a 3 or 4 (I think) and have gone up now to 7's! We will just have to stick to avoiding the EMH parks and following a tour plan as much as possible. We do plan on being flexible and not going commando. It's all about having fun

POR 11/5-11/12

 

[grimley1968]

The first and second weeks of November may well be one of the least crowded times of year, if not THE least crowded time. I really wouldn't worry much about it. If you have a 5-minute wait for anything I'd be very surprised.

Think about it: a) kids are in school, b) the free dining package promotion is long over with by then, c) Thanksgiving is still a good 2 weeks away, d) possibly cooler weather keeps some people away

I don't know who/what "Lens" is, but he/it sounds way off to me.

 

[awatt]

It looks as though Jersey week will be more crowded than originally anticipated by the UG.

But it's the same crowd level as Thanksgiving Day? God, I hope not.

 

[lentesta]

I think it's about average, however, for the entire year. As of Saturday, September 10, the average day at the MK was something like 6.6 on the scale, which we'd round to a 7 anyway.

kimmbagley, here are a couple of pieces of info we used for your dates:

Hotel occupancy rates - International Drive area
Week before "Jersey Week" last year: 74%
Week of "Jersey Week" last year: 86%
Week after "Jersey Week" last year: 79%

Hotel occupancy rates - Lake Buena Vista area
Week before "Jersey Week" last year: 68.6%
Week of "Jersey Week" last year: 71.8%
Week after "Jersey Week" last year: 55.8%

Hours the MK is open the week before your visit: 74
Hours the MK is open the week of your visit: 86
Hours the MK is open the week after your visit: 79

So, for our predictions, we ask something like "What wait times did we observe for similar hotel occupancy and Magic Kingdom hours in the past?" The only two difficult parts to the entire process are (1) figuring out what things to look at, and (2) figuring out how much weight to assign to each thing. That's not trivial, but not terribly difficult.

Again, I wouldn't worry about the crowds, provided you have some idea of what you're doing each day. A 7 crowd level is certainly manageable. I wouldn't worry about it at all.

Sincerely,

Len

 

[Jennygt]

A question Len, What are you thoughts for 10/6-10/10? I know columbus day weekend will increase crowds but will it be like summer? I was last at WDW 2003 first week of Dec and the crowds were very low, loved it! Except for the cold! DH swore he would never go during peak time again, will he be very let down with the crowds this oct? Thanks for any info!!

 

[kimmbagley]

I think it's about average, however, for the entire year. As of Saturday, September 10, the average day at the MK was something like 6.6 on the scale, which we'd round to a 7 anyway.

kimmbagley, here are a couple of pieces of info we used for your dates:

Hotel occupancy rates - International Drive area
Week before "Jersey Week" last year: 74%
Week of "Jersey Week" last year: 86%
Week after "Jersey Week" last year: 79%

Hotel occupancy rates - Lake Buena Vista area
Week before "Jersey Week" last year: 68.6%
Week of "Jersey Week" last year: 71.8%
Week after "Jersey Week" last year: 55.8%

Hours the MK is open the week before your visit: 74
Hours the MK is open the week of your visit: 86
Hours the MK is open the week after your visit: 79

So, for our predictions, we ask something like "What wait times did we observe for similar hotel occupancy and Magic Kingdom hours in the past?" The only two difficult parts to the entire process are (1) figuring out what things to look at, and (2) figuring out how much weight to assign to each thing. That's not trivial, but not terribly difficult.

Again, I wouldn't worry about the crowds, provided you have some idea of what you're doing each day. A 7 crowd level is certainly manageable. I wouldn't worry about it at all.

Sincerely,

Len

Hey Grimely,
That is Len
I suppose I should have said "Len's" or The Unnofficial Guide.
We were also there over Veterans Day 2003, but I don't think they were the exact dates as Jersey Week. We NEVER waited more than 10-15 min for anything, and the level was listed much lower than 7. We will have a "plan" though, just in case. I'm not stressing out too much because we are onsite this time with hoppers. Last time we were at the Liki Tiki timeshare place and did commando dawn till dusk. Never again

 

[68firebird]

How crowded is crowded?

I keep hearing comflicting reports. Some people say that this time of year you never have longer than a 10 minute wait for rides and some people say that places are packed on Early Morning or Early evening hours.

What I have noticed is alot of people like to sleep in and if you can get there are the drop for a early morning or a regular morning it seems that you can ride alot in that first hour.

I also am going to the MNSSHP on the 28th. Some say it will be packed while others say no big deal because they only sell a limited number of tickets. It seems most of the MNSSHP lines were for the candy and not the rides.

Any advice or stories from experience would be helpful.

Also how crowded do people think it would be during our trip?

Thanks.

 

[justplaingoofy]

We would also be interested in hearing about line wait times. We will be there Sept 25-Oct.1

 

[kimmbagley]

You guys should check out touringplans.com Great information there, thanks to Len

 

[DisneyFreq]

I WAS worried about crowd levels for my trip till I checked out the crowd blog. It doesn't appear to be gridlock until Christmas Eve...well after we leave. In fact, one of my vacation days has dropped so I now have TWO days at a four....whoohooo! I told my DH that some of our days were at a 6 and explained the scale to him but he's freaked out anyways. I don't think he quite understands a six is probably better than we've had it on past trips. We've generally gone during April/May in the past and I've noticed those days jump around from 6 -9. Now, I have no way of knowing if the crowd level was the same 4, 5 ,6 years ago but I figure its a close approximation if the idea is that crowds follow a general trend. The point is, we've never had a problem with crowds in May and it appears to be a fairly active time of year. I think it has alot more to do with strategy than with the number of guests. We would get to our park before opening then take a break between noon and one and try to return in time for the 3 pm parade. We also always do at least one opening at each park, two at the MK to ensure we have the opportunity to squeeze in each parks headliners at least once. That way we have the rest of the trip to do the less crowded rides and if there is an odd moment where a headliner has no wait we repeat it. We never feel forced to wait for umpteen hours b/c its one of our "must dos". There is a time to get those done and a time to avoid them all together!

 

[rifamtrav]

Hindsight is 20/20
The crowd predictions for last week Tue 9/6 through Sat. 9/10 were 5,5, 6,4, 4.
Having been there I can tell you that Tues-Fri we never waited more than 15 minutes, most rides were a walk on at several different times of the day. On Friday we were only at MK til 11:30 then left the parks for the day and only returned to Epcot at 8:50 to see Illuminations, the other days we were in the parks throughout much of the day. It didn't matter whether it was EMH morning or Evening, crowds were very light.
Saturday (predicted as a 4) was the heaviest crowd day we encountered. We were at MK at 9am, did Splash 3 times and Thunder Mt once before 10am but didn't do any more rides after that. We were at Epcot from 1-3pm, crowds seemed heavier, Soarin line said 40 minutes, but we didn't wait.
My long winded point is that Touringplan's predictions are good general guides, but nothing to panic about, Len is good, but he can't predict things like weather and recent natural disasters that might have kept the crowds down. Go and enjoy, you'll be fine, just GET AN EARLY START each morning!

 

[kimmbagley]

When you say "get an early start" that doesn't mean the EMH hours right? We're not doing that, but we do plan to be at the the rope drop. Please tell me I'm good at just touring wildly until 11:15am!

 

[dyna]

Yes I checked touringplans.com before my visit 2 weeks ago and it said expect a level 7 for the week I was there. I was totally freaking out!!!!!

Got there and there was NO CROWD!!!! Walked onto almost everything including Soaring which that was right after Epcot opened that morning we was allowed to ride the 2nd time without even gettin off.

I used the day after rule went to the park that had EMH the night before if there was one that had it. Thursday afternoon the crowd started pickin up for the weekend but not horrible. That night was EMH at Epcot I was there but didn't stay for it but it was much more crowded in Epcot that night than it had been all week.

 

[rifamtrav]

Kimmbagley - for us, early start was 9am, give or take 10 minutes. Fri 9/9 was morning emh at MK, that means 8am, but we didn't get there til 9am and like I said, we were the only ones on the street in Frontier land walking towards Splash Mt. I think, if you're talking this time of year, getting there around 9 is fine. Remember, morning EMH at MK doesn't have all the rides open, just some in fantasy land and tomorrow land, that's probably why it was still empty where we were.

 

[kennezgirl]

We are going Nov. 12-18th and I am very concerned about crowd levels. This is our first trip and I am worried that we will not be able to see much because of spending so much time waiting in line. It took us two years to save for this and we want to make it count.
I made our plans before I had all of the valuable information that I am learning on here. Wondering if I should go back and change things.

Seems like most of the people posting on here are having good luck with crowds...but am I correct in stating that they are all following avoiding the park with the EMH?

 

[justplaingoofy]

We were there last year Nov. 14-18. We had about a 5-10 min wait at the most. You'll be fine, relax... Now go start packing!!

 

[cranbiz]

Last year DW and I were down for Veterens day weekend. We walked on to just about everything all weekend.

I was just down over Labor Day. The most I waited was about 15 minutes, Soarin and Space Mountain. Everything else was walk on. In fact on that Monday night, I rode Splash 3 times in a row without getting off, BTMRR 3 times in a row, we just had to move to a different car as there were people waiting for the back car. (moved to the middle and next time to the front - never exited the attraction). Two nights later I did Epcot - Soarin was a 15 minute wait, TT and MS were walk on - there were NO lines at either one. Friday went to MGM - again no lines anywhere and walked into Fantasmic at 8:25 and still got decent seats.