Crowd Calendars...Why are they all so different?

[angeltonja]

Ok, I've looked at touringplans.com, easywdw.com, and undercovertourist.com for our upcoming trip November 11th-17th. They are all completely different! I understand that they are all just predictions (obviously), but how can they be so different? Any suggestions for which to follow?

Example:
11/12 TP & UT have MK as 'Best' and EasyWDW has MK as 'Not Recommended'

 

[mesaboy2]

Ok, I've looked at touringplans.com, easywdw.com, and undercovertourist.com for our upcoming trip November 11th-17th. They are all completely different! I understand that they are all just predictions (obviously), but how can they be so different? Any suggestions for which to follow?

Example:
11/12 TP & UT have MK as 'Best' and EasyWDW has MK as 'Not Recommended'

Because they are different entities predicting the future--it's that simple. I suggest EasyWDW since its free.

 

[WillAustin]

Because they are different entities predicting the future--it's that simple. I suggest EasyWDW since its free.

I'd add that each one uses different methodologies to arrive at their predictions.

I'll second the EasyWDW suggestion.

 

[VMKYouAreMissed]

Because they are different entities predicting the future.

Touring Plans is generally off and the details are inaccurate. I used TGM up until last year, his info and the info from Easy are pretty much identical.

 

[DisneyFanSince71]

Touring companies don't have access to virtually any information so at best they are educated guessers. Best "rule of thumb" is to figure out how many possible people could come and the lower the number, the lower the crowds.

Park most crowded during Spring Breaks, Summer, Christmas.

Least crowded when kids are all at school

The mix between the parks is mostly driven by EMH. I gather most guests don't "hop" so their decisions are driven by going to the parks with the longest hours. IMHO, the most logical park to visit is to go to the park that was most crowded the previous day. But I always will be prepared to hop if I figured incorrectly.

 

[Bellestreak]

I like easywdw, largely because he runs through the reasons for his prediction for each park, on each day. He is always in the parks and he changes his numbers when he thinks there may be other factors to consider.

 

[I-4Bound]

Touring Plans is generally off and the details are inaccurate. I used TGM up until last year, his info and the info from Easy are pretty much identical.

I would have to respectfully disagree. I have used touringplans.com for several years and have been very pleased with the results. I have always found them to be very accurate. With that being said, I still think the most important thing is to arrive early and have a good plan. Good luck!

 

[serene56]

how odd- all three basically say the same for my week.
I am paying for touring plans so will use that as my guide

 

[kgoodb00]

Its all in the statistics from previous years. I personally used Josh's plans from EasyWDW and it worked out great. We went in June so I knew it was going to be busy but it helped me narrow down which park is best during the busy week. I used to pay for Touring Plans but realized it wasn't a fit for my needs!

 

[Micca]

Because they are different entities predicting the future--it's that simple. I suggest EasyWDW since its free.

Agree! My anecdotal experience is that no matter how slow/light an MK day is predicted, at some point during that day you look around and say "where did all these people come from, this was supposed to be a light day!" This will usually be around the IASW, Peter Pan area.

 

[dayzee1983]

Ok, I've looked at touringplans.com, easywdw.com, and undercovertourist.com for our upcoming trip November 11th-17th. They are all completely different! I understand that they are all just predictions (obviously), but how can they be so different? Any suggestions for which to follow?

Example:
11/12 TP & UT have MK as 'Best' and EasyWDW has MK as 'Not Recommended'

I'm going exact dates as you, It's DH's first trip so fingers crossed its low crowds!!!!

 

[Sphinx610]

I'd add that each one uses different methodologies to arrive at their predictions.

I'll second the EasyWDW suggestion.

I'll third the Easy WDW Suggestion!

 

[rt2dz]

Different methods, and actually different types of crowd predictions. I never look at UT, so couldn't say anything about theirs. TGM and EasyWDW use the same methodology. TP is a different type of crowd predictor. I always think of TGM/Easy WDW as a which park guide and TP as what to expect at the park for planning.

Sent from my iPad using DISBoards

 

[DisneyFanSince71]

I think that all do a good job at predicting which park(s) are the ones to attend, avoid. They overstate by big margins how crowded the park will be. The reason why I keep bringing it up is that so many people get so freaked out about what the crowd calendar says and they don't realize that there is very little (if any) science behind it.

Last case in point, the 2 guys who attempted to go on all 47 rides at WDW in a single day. EasyWDW listed their estimated crowd as an 8, yet the guys walked on Everest, ToT, Test Track, Mission Space and had short waits for RnRC and went thru 5 FP attractions in the first hour. They would have done it except that the last 2 remaining rides are closed.

Touring companies have a vested interest to keep their numbers high and when the crowds never materialize they have satisfied customers who believe that "their touring plan saved them from the big crowds". As the 2 guys who went on all the rides (sans the 2) at all 4 parks showed conclusively, there were no significant crowds.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

I think that all do a good job at predicting which park(s) are the ones to attend, avoid. They overstate by big margins how crowded the park will be. The reason why I keep bringing it up is that so many people get so freaked out about what the crowd calendar says and they don't realize that there is very little (if any) science behind it.

Last case in point, the 2 guys who attempted to go on all 47 rides at WDW in a single day. EasyWDW listed their estimated crowd as an 8, yet the guys walked on Everest, ToT, Test Track, Mission Space and had short waits for RnRC and went thru 5 FP attractions in the first hour. They would have done it except that the last 2 remaining rides are closed.

Touring companies have a vested interest to keep their numbers high and when the crowds never materialize they have satisfied customers who believe that "their touring plan saved them from the big crowds". As the 2 guys who went on all the rides (sans the 2) at all 4 parks showed conclusively, there were no significant crowds.

The larger and redder you make your font, the truer the words are that you type.

I am not privy to the exact details of the 47 ride day, but I do know they took advantage of the single rider line at three of the five attractions you mention - Rock 'n' Roller Coaster, Expedition Everest, and Test Track. I would imagine standby waits for Test Track and RnR would be in the 60 to 120 minute range. Everest usually maxes out at 40 - 60. Single rider would cut down on wait times regardless of overall crowds because most people rely on FASTPASS or use standby.

It's also true that you can fly through attractions in the morning for the first 60 to 120 minutes of operation whether you're visiting on September 15th or Christmas Day. Most people arrive after 10am whether you're visiting on September 15th or Christmas day.

Waits for Tower of Terror are short during Fantasmic, Mission: Space rarely sees waits whether it's September 15th or Christmas day, etc.

I would be more than happy to take you to Magic Kingdom at 2pm on the day of your choice next July. And we can discuss how busy it is.

I would imagine the 47 ride folks did some careful planning to minimize wait times. That's probably the lesson to take out of this. Not that July is uncrowded (it isn't) but that you can do well with a plan regardless of crowds. That's why people that read easywdw have success.

 

[DisneyFanSince71]

The larger and redder you make your font, the truer the words are that you type.

I am not privy to the exact details of the 47 ride day, but I do know they took advantage of the single rider line at three of the five attractions you mention - Rock 'n' Roller Coaster, Expedition Everest, and Test Track. I would imagine standby waits for Test Track and RnR would be in the 60 to 120 minute range. Everest usually maxes out at 40 - 60. Single rider would cut down on wait times regardless of overall crowds because most people rely on FASTPASS or use standby.

It's also true that you can fly through attractions in the morning for the first 60 to 120 minutes of operation whether you're visiting on September 15th or Christmas Day. Most people arrive after 10am whether you're visiting on September 15th or Christmas day.

Waits for Tower of Terror are short during Fantasmic, Mission: Space rarely sees waits whether it's September 15th or Christmas day, etc.

I would be more than happy to take you to Magic Kingdom at 2pm on the day of your choice next July. And we can discuss how busy it is.

I would imagine the 47 ride folks did some careful planning to minimize wait times. That's probably the lesson to take out of this. Not that July is uncrowded (it isn't) but that you can do well with a plan regardless of crowds. That's why people that read easywdw have success.

My point is that the crowd calendars are illusion. There are certain days that are incredibly crowded (Christmas week, 4th of July, Easter). Most days the crowds are easily manageable. It took the WDW47 guys 14 minutes from the time they started on Everest til when they started their next ride. EasyWDW had the crowd to be an 8 for that day; an 8 is much more like Christmas (10) than a slow day in January (1).

You said that you would "be happy to take me to MK in July at 2pm we can discuss how busy it is". I will have to decline your generous offer, but my knock on these crowd calendars is that they treat 240 days a year as if it were July 15th at 2pm at MK. That is not true and the reason that I push this hard is because many people give much more thought to these crowd calendars than the people who create them.

 

[mesaboy2]

My point is that the crowd calendars are illusion. There are certain days that are incredibly crowded (Christmas week, 4th of July, Easter). Most days the crowds are easily manageable. It took the WDW47 guys 14 minutes from the time they started on Everest til when they started their next ride. EasyWDW had the crowd to be an 8 for that day; an 8 is much more like Christmas (10) than a slow day in January (1).

You said that you would "be happy to take me to MK in July at 2pm we can discuss how busy it is". I will have to decline your generous offer, but my knock on these crowd calendars is that they treat 240 days a year as if it were July 15th at 2pm at MK. That is not true and the reason that I push this hard is because many people give much more thought to these crowd calendars than the people who create them.

FYI, you're talking to one above. The people who create them put in far more thought than the vast majority of guests who visit WDW. And in this particular case, they perform a largely thankless service to that pool of guests.

 

[Tbiafore]

I would have to respectfully disagree. I have used touringplans.com for several years and have been very pleased with the results. I have always found them to be very accurate. With that being said, I still think the most important thing is to arrive early and have a good plan. Good luck!

Before you make this statement, I would go back and read EasyWDW. Josh is very good at and makes it widely known on his sight when the are off with their predictions, even to the point where he takes pictures of the wait time and crowds in the open areas. It seems a couple times a month, touringplans are way off and Josh lets you know.

I used Touringplans, TGM, EasyWDW and I must say EasyWDW is by far the most accurate.

--Thor

 

[DisneyFanSince71]

FYI, you're talking to one above. The people who create them put in far more thought than the vast majority of guests who visit WDW. And in this particular case, they perform a largely thankless service to that pool of guests.

Certainly EasyWDW would fit in that category as they are giving away their services/advices for free. Not sure I would put TouringPlans in that category as they charge for their service.

I thinking their touring plans are fine/great. There are only a limited number of factors and they provide guidance by day and it is pretty easy to figure out which parks to go to avoid.

Its just the crowd calendars that over estimate the crowds on many days. But those are hard things to do.

 

[mesaboy2]

Certainly EasyWDW would fit in that category as they are giving away their services/advices for free. Not sure I would put TouringPlans in that category as they charge for their service.

I thinking their touring plans are fine/great. There are only a limited number of factors and they provide guidance by day and it is pretty easy to figure out which parks to go to avoid.

Its just the crowd calendars that over estimate the crowds on many days. But those are hard things to do.

To experienced park-goers, sure. To the others, which is most visitors on any given day, they either don't care to figure it out or don't have a clue.