Crowd calendar question

[Dakota731]

how do they make predictions when park hours aren't even announced yet for certain weeks? If you don't know which parks have early opening how can you determine crowd levels?

 

[Klayfish]

They're just guesses. A lot of people (myself included) would say crowd calendars have no real accuracy value.

 

[IrishNYC]

how do they make predictions when park hours aren't even announced yet for certain weeks? If you don't know which parks have early opening how can you determine crowd levels?

Some of it is educated guesses. Some of it is following school calendars. Some of it is patterns and history.

 

[CeruleanMoon]

How do you determine when spring break is? Common wisdom is to avoid that week, but I've seen different sites sometimes display the exact week of my son's school's spring break as a lower crowd level time to go. For schools in my area that is usually the third week in April. Are we that unusual? It would be nice to not have to take my son out of school, but I've been under the assumption that I should avoid that week if possible.

 

[IrishNYC]

How do you determine when spring break is? Common wisdom is to avoid that week, but I've seen different sites sometimes display the exact week of my son's school's spring break as a lower crowd level time to go. For schools in my area that is usually the third week in April. Are we that unusual? It would be nice to not have to take my son out of school, but I've been under the assumption that I should avoid that week if possible.

Spring break varies regionally. Some always have it a specific week. Some follow religious holidays. Here in NYC public schools are almost always off the week when Passover falls. Catholic schools here are off the week before or the week after Easter. My sister's kids in MA are off some time in April. My family in NH is off the last week of April every year.

 

[Barnabas T Bullion]

They're just guesses. A lot of people (myself included) would say crowd calendars have no real accuracy value.

A lot of people (myself included) would disagree with you.

 

[Carson (DisneyByAge.com)]

A lot of people (myself included) would disagree with you.

I agree with you, Barnabas! We put invest a lot in our crowd calendar, and we believe it's very accurate!

 

[Shanti]

how do they make predictions when park hours aren't even announced yet for certain weeks? If you don't know which parks have early opening how can you determine crowd levels?

Crowd calendars have been woefully inaccurate for the past couple of years. I no longer find them credible at all. The primary reason for this is that crowd patterns have shifted in a big way at WDW over the past few years. Crowds are now heavier year-round than they ever were before, and attendance during the traditional school year is heavier than it ever was before, while summer is lighter than it used to be. Fall is now a very crowded time at WDW, whereas it used to be a low-crowd time to go. It's hard to accurately keep track of these changes, let alone accurately predict them.

 

[yulilin3]

Just a reminder that unauthorized advertisement of products is not allowed by DIS guidelines

 

[Klayfish]

A lot of people (myself included) would disagree with you.

Everyone can plan their vacation how they see fit. It's just my opinion. There's no way that a future prediction isn't a guess, by definition it has to be. How "educated" it is can be debated, certainly. I don't doubt the people who make them are sincere in their efforts, but personally I think they're about as accurate as your standard coin flip.