crowd calendar question

[Jrits]

Can someome tell me what the crowd level #s are for 5/16-5/23 - thanks!!

 

[Robo]

Can someome tell me what the crowd level #s are for 5/16-5/23 - thanks!!

Sorry, but it is against DIS policy to post propriety information that
is only available from other sites by subscription.

Any info that is open for public view on other sites is OK to post.

to the DISboards, Jrits!

 

[Jrits]

Thanks!

 

[DrummerBoy523]

Can someome tell me what the crowd level #s are for 5/16-5/23 - thanks!!

dont know the numbers (against DIS policy anyway) but the crowds are usually 4s-6s in mid may.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

It just frustrates me when people go on about any topic totally ignorant and pass on poor information.

The Crowd calender is based upon only 1 thing, and 1 thing only. The Magic Kingdom Peak Wait Times For SM/BTMR/SM.

The numbers have absolutely no meaning to what it was like in DS or AK etc..

Further the comments of it felt like a 2 or it seemed to me the day was a 3 is totally subjective unless you have the data on what the Peak Wait Times For SM/BTMR/SM were for that day then used the chart below to call it that.

Forgive me, but I also find it frustrating and insulting when people go on about any topic totally ignorant and pass on poor information - or wildly incomplete information.

What proof do you have to refute anything I said as 'ignorant' or 'poor information'?

Then again, what proof do any of us have to suggest that anything in that chart is useful, accurate or valid?

Simply put, the crowd predictor chart is not what it implies. (and the title does imply that it is proividing helpful info for all four parks.) The details of the chart imply that it is porviding accurate info on those three rides. Who can prove that it is accurate in any way? or that charting those three rides is useful as a judgement about anything else?


I have seen people report on the DIS that they are cancelling their vacation based on that chart.

Why?

 

[Doogan]

TG doesn't post any sort of historical accuracy data, which I think would be really interesting. Since they seem to be math geeks, it seems like they would be into showing how well their model has done at predicting vs reality.

For the most part, it's just a tool to get some relative idea of how busy the park might be.

I have found that they seem to be correct about which park on which day, though.

 

[Goofy4]

I don't know, our trip is the first two weeks in December and our numbers just went down.

VP

I meant to say that I believe people are holding back on making vacation decisions, complicating the forecasting.

 

[HdnMickeyGrl]

I don't want to start a fight on the internet or anything but the UG website has the way they come up with their numbers. Not sure if it's within the rules to copy and paste so I'll paraphrase. The Crowd Calendar is based on on historical schedules and park hours, US holidays, public school calendars, historical occupancy rates at hotels, Florida Tourism demographics, and by the standby wait times and fastpass distribution times for "nearly every attraction".

I think you are reading it backwards. The numbers don't come from the wait times at the mountains. My understanding is that you can read the numbers and translate them into predictions of wait times at the mountains. So when someone says it's a 2 or a 4, if they know the wait times at the mountains and they know what the numbers stand for then they could easily make those statements. Those statements would be based on empirical data and would not be purely subjective.

They are apparently on the "bleeding edge" of crowd level prediction in the parks. Sounds painful. lol

 

[Goofy4]

TG doesn't post any sort of historical accuracy data.

From http://blog.touringplans.com/2009/05/15/disney-world-crowd-prediction/.

"So, it seems that we’re right more than we’re wrong, which is good. There were some days in early March where we underestimated quite a bit. These are the days that even Disney had to adjust its park hours to accommodate the unexpected influx of guests. Still, there’s a lot of room for improvement here".

While they don't publish much, this works for me. Pretty much says it like it is.

 

[Doogan]

I've seen that post before but I like cold, hard data! I would love to be able to see last year's predictions with a column next to it with last year's actuals. It would just give me a warm fuzzy feeling to see how much they were right. It's just a math thing for me.

 

[bigAWL]

I don't want to start a fight on the internet or anything but the UG website has the way they come up with their numbers. Not sure if it's within the rules to copy and paste so I'll paraphrase. The Crowd Calendar is based on on historical schedules and park hours, US holidays, public school calendars, historical occupancy rates at hotels, Florida Tourism demographics, and by the standby wait times and fastpass distribution times for "nearly every attraction".

I think you are reading it backwards. The numbers don't come from the wait times at the mountains. My understanding is that you can read the numbers and translate them into predictions of wait times at the mountains. So when someone says it's a 2 or a 4, if they know the wait times at the mountains and they know what the numbers stand for then they could easily make those statements. Those statements would be based on empirical data and would not be purely subjective.

They are apparently on the "bleeding edge" of crowd level prediction in the parks. Sounds painful. lol

Well, yes it says they use all that information to create their predictions. But it also says this:

Our "crowd level" estimate is based on a scale from 1 to 10, with 1 being least crowded conditions and 10 being most crowded. The scale measures the peak wait time at the Magic Kingdom's three headliner attractions (Space Mountain, Splash Mountain, and Big Thunder Mountain Railroad). Thus, the Crowd Level is a "worst case" scenario, predicting the longest wait at any of these three attractions on a particular day. Predictions for parks other than the Magic Kingdom are an approximation.

So to me that means those numbers are estimates specifically for those three attractions, and that you can use them approximate wait times for attractions at other parks.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

Thanks BigAWL.

They are also trying to sell you something.

 

[PIRATEGIRL007]

ahhh I remember a day when only the mention of TGM would start a brawl, now it seems Crowd Calendar is key words for the gloves come off and "Let's get ready to RUMBLLLLLEEEE!!!"

 

[bigAWL]

Thanks BigAWL.

They are also trying to sell you something.

Not sure what you mean by that... that I'm gullible?

Well they sold me, and so did TGM and Ridemax. I like to plan, and I like to have as much info as possible. The more they agree the better I feel about my planning.

What I posted was to meant to address specifically what they state their crowd numbers represent, because I think the PP understood something different than what I understood. I think it's a common misconception that thier numbers are meant to predict your experience at any given park on any given day. It may not be clear if you're looking only at that chart, but if you go a little deeper and read what they say about that chart, I think they are pretty clear about it. And I think it's important to point that out - not in an attempt to put anyone down for what they posted, but so people (anyone who reads the thread) know what they are buying ahead of time.

Anyway, I also found this Q&A on the touring plans site:

Q: Epcot was packed on Tuesday but your calendar said it was a '6' — what gives?
A: Our crowd predictions represent the maximum wait time you are likely to observe at the Magic Kingdom headliners. They say nothing directly about crowds at the other parks. We are working on a new crowd calendar structure that will provide a more complete picture of what crowds will be for all parks.

Hard to get much clearer than that, I think.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

I was simply thanking you for clarifying.

 

[spiceycat]

well today it is surpose to be a 5.

it is so far off..... MK is crowded

 

[bigAWL]

well today it is surpose to be a 5.

it is so far off..... MK is crowded

So did you see a wait time for any of the rides at longer than 54 minutes?

 

[brianheather]

Does anyone have the numbers for the 28th of May to June 4th... Wondering how the crowds will be.

 

[Goofy4]

Does anyone have the numbers for the 28th of May to June 4th... Wondering how the crowds will be.

I can tell you without looking (based on my trip last year). There will likely be Gay Days and Star Wars weekend events in there, so plan accordingly.

While it will be busy, it will be much better than the 2nd week of June through early August. Enjoy.

 

[biz410]

Further the comments of it felt like a 2 or it seemed to me the day was a 3 is totally subjective unless you have the data on what the Peak Wait Times For SM/BTMR/SM were for that day then used the chart below to call it that.

Doing anything else when talking about the Crowd Calendar is wrong, and passes on misinformation.

Case in point ....

Level Magic Kingdom Peak Wait Time For SM/BTMR/SM
1 14 mins. or less
2 15 - 24 mins.
3 25 - 34 mins.
4 35 - 44 mins.

So as you can see the day you saw SM as a 30 min wait, that would make it a solid level 4, not a 2 or a 3 as you "felt".

Actually, 30 minutes falls between 25-34. Therefore, the OP "felt" the correct number 3.