Crowd Calendar Accuracy...help?

[streudel423]

I'm not sure how detailed I can get here. But how accurate is the "T******P****dot com" crowd calendar? I'm confused because for SuperSoap weekend, the site said Saturday was a 7 and Sunday was only a 5...I would think it would be MUCH higher than 5! How accurate have you found this crowd calendar? thanks!!!

 

[GovieMom]

For the first week of January they showed a range between 5 and 7, whereas that whole week was 9 to 10. They were waaaay off!

 

[streudel423]

wow...interesting...


Anyone else find this to be true?

 

[jdd]

I was also surprised to see that they rated Halloween a 4. From everything I've read on these boards, MK is JAMMED on Halloween

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

They are accurate to within about 10 minutes peak wait time (Ie within one crowd level point) the vast majority of the time and when they are off they are usually off on the high end, meaning they predicted a 7 and it was a 6. Their predictions are tied to specific data which can be tested. And they do test them.

 

[aug16]

I believe the low numbers for Sunday during Super Soap weekend. A lot of people that go down for Super Soap only go down for the weekend and fly back on Sunday, so they are no longer at the park. There is definitely a change in crowd levels from Saturday to Sunday at MGM. I'll be down there that weekend too for the third time. I love November weather down at Disney.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

I was also surprised to see that they rated Halloween a 4. From everything I've read on these boards, MK is JAMMED on Halloween

Keep in mind what a 4 means. Average Peak wait on the 3 mountains between 35-44 minutes to quote them. If you look on park suggestions. they have MK listed as a park to avoid. You have to use both lists. You can't just go by the one. They also list a MNSSHP party. If it's like the ones I've attended, crowds are usually at the activities rather than the rides and so 35-44 minute average peak wait times between the 3 mountains might not be that far off and will probably occur during the day rather than at the party. You have to use both the calendar and the best park in conjunction with each other.

 

[jdd]

I believe the low numbers for Sunday during Super Soap weekend. A lot of people that go down for Super Soap only go down for the weekend and fly back on Sunday, so they are no longer at the park. There is definitely a change in crowd levels from Saturday to Sunday at MGM. I'll be down there that weekend too for the third time. I love November weather down at Disney.

Yeah, but this is also Jersey Week, and Veterans Day weekend. Again, from what I've read on these boards, this weekend is usually really crowded. And both Sunday and Monday are rated as a 5?? Oh well, I think we drive ourselves crazy trying to figure out when to go when the crowds are low, and it's probably just a guess anyway!

I'm just so excited to be less than three weeks away!

 

[jdd]

Keep in mind what a 4 means. Average Peak wait on the 3 mountains between 35-44 minutes to quote them.

I would think a 35-44 minute peak wait time really isn't that crowded. I've never waited that long for a ride, we do fast pass, but I've seen posted times of 90 minutes and more.

If you look on park suggestions. they have MK listed as a park to avoid. You have to use both lists. You can't just go by the one. They also list a MNSSHP party. If it's like the ones I've attended, crowds are usually at the activities rather than the rides and so 35-44 minute average peak wait times between the 3 mountains might not be that far off and will probably occur during the day rather than at the party. You have to use both the calendar and the best park in conjunction with each other

Does that mean that the average wait time only applies to the parks that are considered the "best parks", and it doesn't apply to the "parks to avoid"? I always thought it was reflective of all parks.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

I would think a 35-44 minute peak wait time really isn't that crowded. I've never waited that long for a ride, we do fast pass, but I've seen posted times of 90 minutes and more.

Does that mean that the average wait time only applies to the parks that are considered the "best parks", and it doesn't apply to the "parks to avoid"? I always thought it was reflective of all parks.

It is a very specific piece of data. A 4 means a 35-44 minutes average peak wait at the three mountains in MK. From that, the reader has to make an inference about the other parks as well as an inference of general crowd levels. When there is an event such as Star Wars Weekends at MGM, I would infer the MGM peak waits would be higher than that would otherwise indicate.

I like their system because it allows me to make a good solid judgment with hard numbers that they can test for accuracy. Others like TGM's red/yellow/green system because it's easier to use.

 

[jenjersnap]

I was also surprised to see that they rated Halloween a 4. From everything I've read on these boards, MK is JAMMED on Halloween

Nope, Halloween was very quiet last year. The MNSSHP was a sellout but there must have been lots of locals who were NOT making a day of it.

I find TP to be very accurate.

 

[heart4dis]

I found their estimates pretty acurate. Like previous posters have noted, it helps to post the wait times. Someone in Iowa who posts on these boards might be horrified at waiting 30 minutes while those of us from metropolitan areas are used to waiting that long at Starbucks

 

[JerseyMamaBear]

Can someone please share with me what the site says about Dec 12-16th? I have been looking all over the web for that site but cant find it with the hints given above. Thanksfor the help

 

[Magpie]

Can someone please share with me what the site says about Dec 12-16th? I have been looking all over the web for that site but cant find it with the hints given above. Thanksfor the help

Go to w w w dot t o u r i n g p l a n s dot c o m

Hope you can figure that out! Their url is blocked on this site because they're in direct competition with TGM, who is a Dis sponsor.

I don't work for the Unofficial Guide and am in no way affiliated with them.

Oh... but I love their crowd calendar. It worked beautifully when we went down in 2005. We always use their recommended parks, as much as possible. Their touring plans are great, too.

JMO!

 

[buffalogirl]

Can someone please share with me what the site says about Dec 12-16th? I have been looking all over the web for that site but cant find it with the hints given above. Thanksfor the help

Looks like a great time to go! Dec 12-level 5, Dec 13& 14- level 4, Dec 15 & 16- level 6. We're going at the same time, enjoy your trip!

 

[JerseyMamaBear]

Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!!!! You are a lifesaver!!!