COVID-19 travel contingency plan for Canadian

[Csaks]

Sure. If you want to buy our plane tickets and hotel reservations, I would gladly sell them to you at cost and give you all the space you want. Otherwise, why would I want to throw away thousands of dollars at this time just to make room for you? Are you that oversize and need that much more room?

If you are going to fret over it this much, yes stay home.
Otherwise enjoy your vacation if you can, maybe buy some bio-hazard suits to knock down your stress levels. You must be stressed calling people fat to try and win an internet argument.

 

[ILovePixieDust]

I just got back from Myrtle Beach with my 4 month old. Covid-19 doesn't scare me or my family. The media is making this a lot worse then it is. The flu kills more people per year then this virus.

It is true that the flu kills more people per year. That total number is true. But not the only way to look at a statistic. Percentage is important too. The percent of mortality by WHO for COVID-19 is currently estimated at 3.4% (which admittedly could change).

Thank you for stating this ^^^
While this virus is no joke the media is scaring people needlessly. If you are to get it, the vast majority of people will feel like they have a very bad cold. It is just a new mutation of the common cold....coronavirus is not new.

Put it in perspective...... In the past 13 months in the USA there have been 13 million reported cases of Influenza A and B with over 6000 deaths....and these are not considered high numbers. That 13 million is only the reported cases....many, many more have had it.

6000 isn't considered a high number but if we were to extrapolate using the 13,000,000 for COVID-19:
if 13 million people were to get the COVID-19 using the 3.4% estimate that would mean 442,000 people.

 

[Donald - my hero]

It is true that the flu kills more people per year. That total number is true. But not the only way to look at a statistic. Percentage is important too. The percent of mortality by WHO for COVID-19 is currently estimated at 3.4% (which admittedly could change).



6000 isn't considered a high number but if we were to extrapolate using the 13,000,000 for COVID-19:
if 13 million people were to get the COVID-19 using the 3.4% estimate that would mean 442,000 people.

Yes, THIS!! It bothers me to see people saying the flu kills more people because that's not a fair comparison. More people get the flu so of course there will be more deaths but it's the Mortality Rate that's the important figure. Based on the current information being provided by WHO if we take a 1000 people who have the flu and the same number of people who have COVID-19 we would see 1 person die from the flu (0.1% mortality rate) and 34 people die from COVID-19 (3.4% mortality rate)

This of course will have some saying that more people get the flu but due to the protracted incubation period for COVID-19 and the lack of proper testing currently available,we're not sure how many people have this virus. I'm not fear mongering, just pointing out something that irks me

 

[Jrb1979]

Yes, THIS!! It bothers me to see people saying the flu kills more people because that's not a fair comparison. More people get the flu so of course there will be more deaths but it's the Mortality Rate that's the important figure. Based on the current information being provided by WHO if we take a 1000 people who have the flu and the same number of people who have COVID-19 we would see 1 person die from the flu (0.1% mortality rate) and 34 people die from COVID-19 (3.4% mortality rate)

This of course will have some saying that more people get the flu but due to the protracted incubation period for COVID-19 and the lack of proper testing currently available,we're not sure how many people have this virus. I'm not fear mongering, just pointing out something that irks me

While that maybe true, we also don't know ages of the majority that have died from this. The media will never let that be known as they need to keep people scared of this. I am not worried one bit of this virus. The majority of the people that have the virus in the US and Canada brought it from another country. I have said all along that once this got as big as it did in China that until it settled down, the border would be closed to anyone from the infected countries.

 

[ILovePixieDust]

While that maybe true, we also don't know ages of the majority that have died from this. The media will never let that be known as they need to keep people scared of this. I am not worried one bit of this virus. The majority of the people that have the virus in the US and Canada brought it from another country. I have said all along that once this got as big as it did in China that until it settled down, the border would be closed to anyone from the infected countries.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-age-older-people-higher-risk-2020-2

 

[Donald - my hero]

While that maybe true, we also don't know ages of the majority that have died from this. The media will never let that be known as they need to keep people scared of this. I am not worried one bit of this virus. The majority of the people that have the virus in the US and Canada brought it from another country. I have said all along that once this got as big as it did in China that until it settled down, the border would be closed to anyone from the infected countries.

That's why i don't look to the media as my only source of information, I use the sites i provided above as well as provincial and municipal for the info that will directly involve myself and my family.

I'm concerned about the virus because we have several family members who are in the identified higher risk categories - elderly parents, congestive heart failure, asthma, chronic bronchitis, the list goes on. Our sole source of income is my hubby's business and if he can't leave the house because of self-quarantine, we don't get paid so we won't go somewhere that has documented cases. I'm not hiding in the basement huddled under blankets shaking in fear (was huddled in my Mickey snuggy on the weekend shaking from the cold, but that's a different story ) but I'm not being reckless either.

 

[bankr63]

Yes, THIS!! It bothers me to see people saying the flu kills more people because that's not a fair comparison. More people get the flu so of course there will be more deaths but it's the Mortality Rate that's the important figure. Based on the current information being provided by WHO if we take a 1000 people who have the flu and the same number of people who have COVID-19 we would see 1 person die from the flu (0.1% mortality rate) and 34 people die from COVID-19 (3.4% mortality rate)

This of course will have some saying that more people get the flu but due to the protracted incubation period for COVID-19 and the lack of proper testing currently available,we're not sure how many people have this virus. I'm not fear mongering, just pointing out something that irks me

But also, Yes, not THIS!! The mortality rate should also be tempered with the infection rate. As you stated, more people get the flu because it (currently appears to be) more infectious. So in an overall population, a person is more likely to contract a regular strain of influenza and die than they are to get COVID-19 and die (based on current analysis, and yes, the numbers are still highly variable). Really humans are terrible at assessing risk, and the media knows and fuels this.

Why are many people more afraid of flying than driving when the mortality rate per mile traveled is so much higher for automobiles? For some reason we are less fearful of the danger we have accepted (driving or regular influenza) than the danger we are less comfortable with (flying or COVID-19). I am still much more likely to die in a automobile accident on our trip down next week than I am likely to die of pneumonia brought on by COVID-19 contracted during the trip, but I easily accept the risk of driving as normal. Yes, I am concerned about COVID-19, but rationally, I am concerned about the wrong thing.

For that matter, how many people reading here did NOT get an influenza shot this year? (BTW - it's not too late!) Flu is an easily managed risk with proper precautions, and yet so many people forego this simple precaution. How often do I see people use a public washroom and then exit without washing their hands? Again, a simple precaution that lots of people seem to forego.

 

[Pumpkin1172]

It is a respiratory illness. If your not immunocompromised, elderly or have some underlying condition diabetes or for some reason coronary heart disease seems to be especially prone to the virus, you will be ok. If your worried about maybe contracting it then spreading it to those around you who are vulnerable then limit going out to public places. Order your groceries, go to the drugstore late at night...and wash your hands, wash your hands, wash your hands, don't touch your face, and again wash your hands.

I'm going to add the work places NEED to change their policies on sick days. They NEED to give people sick days, so people don't feel like they need to go to work because they can't afford to get behind on bills, They need to relax things like Dr notes and all those other things they ask for when they just want to be difficult. And honestly PEOPLE NEED TO STAY HOME WHEN THEY ARE SICK!!!!!!! Whether they have the flu or the corona virus...when you are sick and contagious stay home. Do grocery pickup, get friends or family to pick up drugs/prescriptions for you. IN this day and age of online banking...there is no reason that someone wouldn't be able to pick up something and deliver it to you at your home where you won't get others sick.
Getting off my soap box now...and remember to please wash your hands!!!!!!

 

[Pumpkin1172]

For that matter, how many people reading here did NOT get an influenza shot this year? (BTW - it's not too late!) Flu is an easily managed risk with proper precautions, and yet so many people forego this simple precaution. How often do I see people use a public washroom and then exit without washing their hands? Again, a simple precaution that lots of people seem to forego.

Exactly...or making sure they cover the toilet seat with toilet paper...but just put their hands under water for 2 seconds and think their hands are clean insert gagging with that too. and don't get me started on using the blowers to dry your hands...double gag.

People just need to STAY HOME when they are sick. Just because they are not at work...doesn't mean you go get groceries, the mall, a movie etc etc etc etc. STAY HOME!!!!! Do grocery pick up, get someone to pick up your cold medication and use online banking to send them an e-transfer. STAY HOME!!!! I can't tell you how many sick people would come into Pier 1 or the other retail jobs I have had over the years just to shop because they were sick and NOT at work....STAY HOME!!!!!

 

[Donald - my hero]

But also, Yes, not THIS!! The mortality rate should also be tempered with the infection rate. As you stated, more people get the flu because it (currently appears to be) more infectious. So in an overall population, a person is more likely to contract a regular strain of influenza and die than they are to get COVID-19 and die (based on current analysis, and yes, the numbers are still highly variable). Really humans are terrible at assessing risk, and the media knows and fuels this.

Why are many people more afraid of flying than driving when the mortality rate per mile traveled is so much higher for automobiles? For some reason we are less fearful of the danger we have accepted (driving or regular influenza) than the danger we are less comfortable with (flying or COVID-19). I am still much more likely to die in a automobile accident on our trip down next week than I am likely to die of pneumonia brought on by COVID-19 contracted during the trip, but I easily accept the risk of driving as normal. Yes, I am concerned about COVID-19, but rationally, I am concerned about the wrong thing.

For that matter, how many people reading here did NOT get an influenza shot this year? (BTW - it's not too late!) Flu is an easily managed risk with proper precautions, and yet so many people forego this simple precaution. How often do I see people use a public washroom and then exit without washing their hands? Again, a simple precaution that lots of people seem to forego.

aWW, yes, you caught my sleep-deprived error! I don't like fueling the wrong fire and try to extraordinarily cautious when stepping into conversations that require levelheaded evaluations of fact based information. I also try to keep my mouth shut (or my fingers off the keys) if it's a subject that I have no personal connection to but this is one that DOES affect myself & family due to several per-existing conditions. I'm usually much better at making sure everything i share can be backed up with direct links to the sources or if need be a screenshot and really try to take the time to double check what I've typed before i post, but that slipped past me! Thanks for catching that for me!!

Flu shot - check, as soon as it's available we head to Shoppers and get stabbed, also got our shingles vaccines this year since we're both old now according to the doctor I have food allergies that are cross contamination level issues so the hand washing & disinfecting are already part of my normal day-to-day routine. I have a friend who is crazy about touching public things, flushes toilet with her foot yet she still will eat anything, anywhere, without even a wipe of a kleenex ???!!!???

 

[ILovePixieDust]

But also, Yes, not THIS!! The mortality rate should also be tempered with the infection rate. As you stated, more people get the flu because it (currently appears to be) more infectious. So in an overall population, a person is more likely to contract a regular strain of influenza and die than they are to get COVID-19 and die (based on current analysis, and yes, the numbers are still highly variable). Really humans are terrible at assessing risk, and the media knows and fuels this.

Why are many people more afraid of flying than driving when the mortality rate per mile traveled is so much higher for automobiles? For some reason we are less fearful of the danger we have accepted (driving or regular influenza) than the danger we are less comfortable with (flying or COVID-19). I am still much more likely to die in a automobile accident on our trip down next week than I am likely to die of pneumonia brought on by COVID-19 contracted during the trip, but I easily accept the risk of driving as normal. Yes, I am concerned about COVID-19, but rationally, I am concerned about the wrong thing.

For that matter, how many people reading here did NOT get an influenza shot this year? (BTW - it's not too late!) Flu is an easily managed risk with proper precautions, and yet so many people forego this simple precaution. How often do I see people use a public washroom and then exit without washing their hands? Again, a simple precaution that lots of people seem to forego.

Actually, YES THAT!!!!

More people get the flu not because it is more infectious. More people get it because it has been around longer!

COVID-19 is more contagious/infectious than the flu. So if it were to spread unmitigated and uncontained it would, theoretically, affect more people than the flu. I haven't read otherwise. Can you please link a source if you do?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/health-officials-coronavirus-covid19-flu-health-outbreak
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/how-contagious-is-covid-19-compared-to-other-viral-diseases-1.4836734
This means the infection rate would be higher than the flu if left unmitigated.

 

[bankr63]

Actually, YES THAT!!!!

More people get the flu not because it is more infectious. More people get it because it has been around longer!

COVID-19 is more contagious/infectious than the flu. So if it were to spread unmitigated and uncontained it would, theoretically, affect more people than the flu. I haven't read otherwise. Can you please link a source if you do?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/health-officials-coronavirus-covid19-flu-health-outbreak
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/how-contagious-is-covid-19-compared-to-other-viral-diseases-1.4836734
This means the infection rate would be higher than the flu if left unmitigated.

So without digging too far back, I didn't write down the source of my information. I was reading primarily through WHO and CDC links last Friday when I was researching, but I was calculating rates based on the raw data because numbers weren't evident in the sources I checked. I would note that checking the sources quoted in your two news articles, their source data was quite stale (Feb 11 or Feb 24). But checking the latest WHO SitRep (accurate to March 6) https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2 the numbers quoted in the articles aren't too far off current thinking. although a bit higher than now reported. I will admit that my calculated transmission rate had COVID lower than Influenza, but I calculated that mostly from the Johns Hopkins data. The seasonal influenza does have a slightly lower R0 number, but both seasonal flu and COVID-19 are considerable lower than other contagious diseases as per the source data in your links. I also think part of the discrepancy may be that I was looking at overall numbers for influenza in the US, and the R0 quoted is likely per strain. Keeping in mind that there are several strains (generally 3-4) of influenza circulating each season, each with their own R0, that may explain the difference I see in the numbers I was working with.

Perhaps a couple of quotes from the WHO SitRep report are worth noting:

The speed of transmission is an important point of difference between the two viruses. Influenza has a shorter median incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (the time between successive cases) than COVID-19 virus. The serial interval for COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6 days, while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days. This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID19. Further, transmission in the first 3-5 days of illness, or potentially pre-symptomatic transmission –transmission of the virus before the appearance of symptoms – is a major driver of transmission for influenza. In contrast, while we are learning that there are people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset, at present, this does not appear to be a major driver of transmission. The reproductive number – the number of secondary infections generated from one infected individual – is understood to be between 2 and 2.5 for COVID-19 virus, higher than for influenza. However, estimates for both COVID-19 and influenza viruses are very context and time-specific, making direct comparisons more difficult.

and

RECOMMENDATIONS AND ADVICE FOR THE PUBLIC If you are not in an area where COVID-19 is spreading or have not travelled from an area where COVID-19 is spreading or have not been in contact with an infected patient, your risk of infection is low. It is understandable that you may feel anxious about the outbreak. Get the facts from reliable sources to help you accurately determine your risks so that you can take reasonable precautions. Seek guidance from WHO, your healthcare provider, your national public health authority or your employer for accurate information on COVID-19 and whether COVID-19 is circulating where you live. It is important to be informed of the situation and take appropriate measures to protect yourself and your family. If you are in an area where there are cases of COVID-19 you need to take the risk of infection seriously. Follow the advice of WHO and guidance issued by national and local health authorities. For most people, COVID-19 infection will cause mild illness however, it can make some people very ill and, in some people, it can be fatal. Older people, and those with pre-existing medical conditions (such as cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease or diabetes) are at risk for severe disease

*note: edited to remove links to other sources that did not transfer from the source quote, for full context check the linked sitrep.

So people should not really be listening to ME to YOU or to anyone else here on DIS. Our discussion here is purely academic and should all be taken with the context that everyone makes up their own minds from the rapidly changing sources available. My personal assessment is that I am in an area with zero cases, going to an area with zero cases, and my risks are relatively low and manageable. I will be taking additional precautions next week to minimize the likelihood of infection, but I am not cancelling my travel at this time based on the best data available.

 

[ottawamom]

Unfortunately our area (Ottawa) has 1 case now (travel from Austria). Still not a community transmission.

 

[bankr63]

Unfortunately our area (Ottawa) has 1 case now (travel from Austria). Still not a community transmission.

All the more reason to git on the road!

 

[ILovePixieDust]

So without digging too far back, I didn't write down the source of my information. I was reading primarily through WHO and CDC links last Friday when I was researching, but I was calculating rates based on the raw data because numbers weren't evident in the sources I checked. I would note that checking the sources quoted in your two news articles, their source data was quite stale (Feb 11 or Feb 24). But checking the latest WHO SitRep (accurate to March 6) https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2 the numbers quoted in the articles aren't too far off current thinking. although a bit higher than now reported. I will admit that my calculated transmission rate had COVID lower than Influenza, but I calculated that mostly from the Johns Hopkins data. The seasonal influenza does have a slightly lower R0 number, but both seasonal flu and COVID-19 are considerable lower than other contagious diseases as per the source data in your links. I also think part of the discrepancy may be that I was looking at overall numbers for influenza in the US, and the R0 quoted is likely per strain. Keeping in mind that there are several strains (generally 3-4) of influenza circulating each season, each with their own R0, that may explain the difference I see in the numbers I was working with.

Perhaps a couple of quotes from the WHO SitRep report are worth noting:

and
*note: edited to remove links to other sources that did not transfer from the source quote, for full context check the linked sitrep.

So people should not really be listening to ME to YOU or to anyone else here on DIS. Our discussion here is purely academic and should all be taken with the context that everyone makes up their own minds from the rapidly changing sources available. My personal assessment is that I am in an area with zero cases, going to an area with zero cases, and my risks are relatively low and manageable. I will be taking additional precautions next week to minimize the likelihood of infection, but I am not cancelling my travel at this time based on the best data available.

Wow, I wouldn't say that data is "stale". The World Economic Forum article is from March 9th and has statistics up until March 8th in the graph charting the epidemic (which is now a pandemic).
Does that make the WHO article from March 6th "stale"??

But let's bring this back to the point I believe we were specifically discussing. How contagious/infectious is it?

Here is a quote from the WHO article you linked:
"The reproductive number – the number of secondary infections generated from one infected individual – is understood to be between 2 and 2.5 for COVID-19 virus, higher than for influenza. However, estimates for both COVID-19 and influenza viruses are very context and time-specific, making direct comparisons more difficult."

And a quote from the WEF article: "Also, COVID-19 is more contagious than seasonal influenza. The average person, even with mild symptoms, is likely to spread the disease to more than two people. By contrast, the seasonal flu’s rate is roughly half."


I was not discusseing whether or not you should travel or not. I am glad that you have vacation plans to somewhere that is not currently affected and that where you live no one is infected. But that was not the point I was making.

Also, everyone absolutely has to make their own personal decisions about travel. Everyone needs to do their due diligence - look at the travel advisories and look at what is happening in the world. Everyone needs to make their own decisions. I'm not telling people to listen to ME or YOU but just presenting information that I have seen, just like you are doing. It's not personal. I just saw you noted that infection rates for flu are higher and I wanted to share that the trend currently shows that COVID-19 is more contagious with a high R0.

Things are happening very rapidly with COVID-19 and news changes daily. In fact, John Hopkins (whom you made reference to above) does have great information on their site as well as a live map that updates the number of cases around the world. And today, they have announced that they are transitioning to not having classes and only holding online learning until April 12.

 

[ottawamom]

Just started my contigency plan for my April trip. I just booked a room only for November 2020. So if April doesn't work out I will change my flights to November and pay the slight increase in airfare (Air Canada just agreed to no cancellation fees for travel to April 30th) I got flexible date tickets so that is an easy switch (no $ involved).

Takes a little of the pressure off. Now that I've made a contigency plan things will be good to go for April. (or not)

 

[isabellea]

For me the main issue with traveling outside Canada is insurance. I would never take the chance that we get infected and our travel medical insurance (BlueCross through DH work) refuse to cover because it's a declared pandemic. Even if my chance (or my immediate family chance) of catching the virus is very slim, I wouldn't chance our family future because I wanted to take a vacation. An ICU stay in the USA would cost us in the 6 digits... I know because my grandfather died in Fort Lauderdale 30 years ago but before he died he spent 2 days at the ICU. The bill was over 50K and the insurance fought my family not to pay. Luckily they ended up paying but it would have ruined my grandmother if they hadn't.

The USA are also lagging big time in testing so who knows what is the REAL extend of the infection there. Also, most compare to the flu but what they don't understand is that while the seasonal flu is linked to many more deaths than Covid-19 for now, it is not overwhelming the medical system (ICU especially) like Covid-19 is. This virus is nasty and makes a lot of damage, especially in those with a weak immune system or coronary conditions. The scientific in me is very curious what will be the long term damages for those that recovered. I have a M.Sc. in human genetics and work in an academic lab on host resistance to pneumonia so this is my field even though we are not currently studying viral pneumonia.

 

[migel]

We're driving down for March Break in two days.
As of three hours ago, Donald Trump just banned all incoming flights from Europe to the U.S. (UK excepted) as of Friday, midnight.
Should be an interesting week at Disney.
And in just a few hours, Southwest opens up their mid-Aug to whenever fairs, so I get to book flights for our August visit.
This just keeps getting better....

 

[ILovePixieDust]

We're driving down for March Break in two days.
As of three hours ago, Donald Trump just banned all incoming flights from Europe to the U.S. (UK excepted) as of Friday, midnight.
Should be an interesting week at Disney.
And in just a few hours, Southwest opens up their mid-Aug to whenever fairs, so I get to book flights for our August visit.
This just keeps getting better....

And on top of that the US State Department put out a Global Level 3 Travel Advisory - recommending US citizens reconsider travel abroad....yikes.

Let us know what crossing the borders were like when you get back!

 

[migel]

And on top of that the US State Department put out a Global Level 3 Travel Advisory - recommending US citizens reconsider travel abroad....yikes.

Let us know what crossing the borders were like when you get back!

Will do!