Covid-19 here for possibly 2 years. News story.

[BartmanLA]

Sobering reading, and possible scenarios about how this virus could play out for everyone.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/health/report-covid-two-more-years/index.html

 

[T & R]

Why only 2 years? Prolly going to be here for the duration of humanity which is why it's silly to lock everyone away in their homes. There is no waiting it out, it's always going to be out there somewhere just like the flu and other viruses. There is no vaccine that prevents you from getting all forms of the flu which is why there will not be a vaccine that prevents all forms of Coronavirus. The flu never goes away, so why would this one?

 

[randumb0]

There is no vaccine that prevents you from getting all forms of the flu which is why there will not be a vaccine that prevents all forms of Coronavirus. The flu never goes away, so why would this one?

So far Covid 19 has been mutating at a much slower rate than influenza so I'm not sure that comparing the two in terms of a vaccine is a valid comparison

 

[T & R]

So far Covid 19 has been mutating at a much slower rate than influenza so I'm not sure that comparing the two in terms of a vaccine is a valid comparison

I didn't compare anything to Covid 19. Covid 19 is a form of Coronavirus just like SARS-CoV is as well. Coronavirus is estimated to have been around for thousands of years and was discovered in the 1930's and was identified in humans in the 1960's. It's like playing Wack-a-Mole. You fight one version and another version pops up. Very, Very similar to the flu, so accurate comparison. So for the same reasons we will not be able to vaccinate against all ever changing versions of the flu, we will not be able to get vaccinated against all the ever changing forms of the Coronavirus. You cannot lock yourself away to avoid it. In the words of Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus regarding his order of no Coronavirus shut down "Better to die on your feet than to live on your knees".

 

[DLgal]

Coronavirus is not deadly enough to self extinguish. It will be around forever, most likely.

 

[DLgal]

Why only 2 years? Prolly going to be here for the duration of humanity which is why it's silly to lock everyone away in their homes. There is no waiting it out, it's always going to be out there somewhere just like the flu and other viruses. There is no vaccine that prevents you from getting all forms of the flu which is why there will not be a vaccine that prevents all forms of Coronavirus. The flu never goes away, so why would this one?

I agree with you, but the 2 years is 2 years of "widespread infection rates" until we reach a global 60-70% with herd immunity. They think it will take that long for that to happen, and in the meantime, we can expect infection numbers to remain at a steady increase every day. After that point, it will become more sporadic in nature.

 

[FigmentSpark]

Actually, didn't SARS 1 disappear the very next year?

 

[bcwife76]

It will probably be around for years to come. Not sure why this should come as a surprise to anyone.

 

[CamColt]

This post is off topic for Disney Cruise Line therefore I will move it to the Community Board where it is a better fit.

 

[Wakey]

We are nearly at a Universal Flu Vaccine- the next 5 years or so.
We have new technology.
Think of it like this. I ask you to sit on a highway bridge and throw a brick through the window of a black Lincoln Navigator with the license plate ‘Covid’. As a black Navigator approaches, you (the immune system) looks at it and sees the license plate and throw the brick.
Now the next Navigator to come along, you see it has the license plate ‘New Virus 2021’. You ignore that one and don’t throw your brick.
That’s how traditional vaccine works as when the mutation happens (license plate changes) you don’t recognise it as a threat.
Now imagine we made it impossible for you, the vaccine, to see the license plate. Now all you see is a black Navigator as you cannot see the thing that changes. So you have to throw a brick at every black Navigator.
That’s how the Universal Flu vaccine will basically work- the vaccine doesn’t trigger an immune response on the whole virus, just parts of it that don’t change.
It isn’t known if the Coronavirus vaccine will have to be repeated due to mutation. But maybe not. For example the Oxford Vaccine (the UK one that’s looking very promising) causes an immune response only against the crown spikes, not the rest of it.

 

[MamaLema]

Why only 2 years? Prolly going to be here for the duration of humanity which is why it's silly to lock everyone away in their homes. There is no waiting it out, it's always going to be out there somewhere just like the flu and other viruses. There is no vaccine that prevents you from getting all forms of the flu which is why there will not be a vaccine that prevents all forms of Coronavirus. The flu never goes away, so why would this one?

It’s not silly to keep people home to prevent severe/death. If hospitals get too overwhelmed we will see what happened in Italy where they had to choose who lives and dies because of ventilator shortages.

 

[DLgal]

Actually, didn't SARS 1 disappear the very next year?

Yeah, because it was WAY more deadly and didn't have a 14 day incubation period. It died off because it didn't have a chance to propagate quickly.

 

[Dan Murphy]

This post is off topic for Disney Cruise Line therefore I will move it to the Community Board where it is a better fit.

CC, you're still 'mod'ing'? Great to see you again. Hope all is well.

 

[Mainsail Minnie]

Herd immunity might take two years to reach if we continue the present form of social distancing. Flattening the curve makes us have to live with this longer, which is why I advocate for the sole criteria for reopening being the capacity of local hospitals. In areas where hospitals aren't overwhelmed (most areas of the U.S.), then reopening should go on in those areas, and that will bring us a lot closer to herd immunity, more quickly. Staying the course for two years will be a social and economic nightmare, and will still have the same total number of deaths as if we did a targeted reopening based on hospital capacity. Those deaths would just be spread out over a much longer period of time.

 

[kymom99]

We are nearly at a Universal Flu Vaccine- the next 5 years or so.
We have new technology.
Think of it like this. I ask you to sit on a highway bridge and throw a brick through the window of a black Lincoln Navigator with the license plate ‘Covid’. As a black Navigator approaches, you (the immune system) looks at it and sees the license plate and throw the brick.
Now the next Navigator to come along, you see it has the license plate ‘New Virus 2021’. You ignore that one and don’t throw your brick.
That’s how traditional vaccine works as when the mutation happens (license plate changes) you don’t recognise it as a threat.
Now imagine we made it impossible for you, the vaccine, to see the license plate. Now all you see is a black Navigator as you cannot see the thing that changes. So you have to throw a brick at every black Navigator.
That’s how the Universal Flu vaccine will basically work- the vaccine doesn’t trigger an immune response on the whole virus, just parts of it that don’t change.
It isn’t known if the Coronavirus vaccine will have to be repeated due to mutation. But maybe not. For example the Oxford Vaccine (the UK one that’s looking very promising) causes an immune response only against the crown spikes, not the rest of it.

I think that's the part that would keep it from the lungs. Is that right?

 

[Wakey]

I think that's the part that would keep it from the lungs. Is that right?

It’s that part that attaches to your cells, lets it grab on and then move to invade the cell.