coronavirus

[eeyoreandtink]

The assumption that it just goes unchecked as it doubles exactly is incorrect.
There is no treatment for this disease (yet).



20% hospitalization ratio is A LOT when you compare it to just ~2% for the regular seasonal flu.

The 20% hospitalization rate is far from accurate. It is for those that know they are infected, which is only the most severe fraction of everyone infected because most don't even know they have it because symptoms are so mild.

 

[Spridell]

The 20% hospitalization rate is far from accurate. It is for those that know they are infected, which is only the most severe fraction of everyone infected because most don't even know they have it because symptoms are so mild.

Right out of those 20% there will be some who stay home and treat themselves and some who will be hospitalized. WIll never know real number.

 

[eeyoreandtink]

No Alarm? When did the Flu cause the following to happen ?

Washington State had thier first coronavirus patient on 1/19/2020, now they have 70 known cases and 10 deaths.

Italy had 10 cases on 2/24/20, they are going to be hitting 4000 cases soon, reported 41 deaths overnight for a total of 168 on 3/5/20

What’s worrisome is the impact of just one person, where just simple exposure is forcing much needed first responders and medical staff to self quarantined for 14 days - how that effect staffing ? it will slow response times to 911 emergency calls for help and increase wait times and impact care at hospitals

Never mind the impact on the Global Supply Chain, Business and Financial Sectors


Just this week in Seattle

• Seattle Buys A $4 Million Quarintine Hotel
• Schools Shut in Seattle, school district launched the farthest-reaching school closures in the U.S. directing more than 23,500 students to stay home for up to 2 weeks in a last-resort step that districts across the country are considering
• Microsoft Corp., Amazon Inc. and Facebook Inc. to encouraging employees in the region to work from home.
• 27 firefighters & 2 police officers quarantined after they were dispatched to a coronavirus-hit nursing home which had 4 residents who succumbed illness
• Washington county recommends all 2.2M residents to work from home, tells over 60's to stay indoors

In California

• UC Davis Medical Center, the union reports 36 nurses and 88 medical staff are under self-quarantine as a precaution after a Solano County patient was admitted into the hospital and later tested positive for coronavirus.
• Cruise Ships can’t dock and let passengers disembark - Gov Newsom said more than half of 2,500 aboard the February cruise, which docked in San Francisco, are California residents. The governor also added 11 passengers and 10 crew members on the ship are showing symptoms of the virus.
• California’s first coronavirus fatality — an elderly patient who apparently contracted the illness on a cruise — prompted the governor Wednesday to declare a statewide emergency.

As I said. Most of this is overblown reaction to what the media has whipped up into a frenzy. What we should be looking at to determine the threat level of this illness is the actual data on what is happening, not the reactivisim of governments who need to look like they are doing something.

South Korea is the closest analog to the US with a sizable infected population. They are seeing a death rate of 0.5% and dropping in those who know they are infected. Lower than SARS, MERS, or H1N1 at this stage.

New data are showing that it is likely that most of those infected don't even know it because symptoms mimic a cold.

The death rate people are throwing around with this is 2%. Yes, that is a higher death rate than seasonal flu, but it is also largely based on cases in area with substandard medical care and on likely skewed infection data. In the early stages it is highly likely hundreds of thousands more people were infected and never knew it because they had such mild symptoms. Only the most sever cases would have sought an y treatment at all and been tested.

This is a respiratory virus, just like countless others we have seen. The panic will soon die down and it will be back to business as usual.

 

[godisney14]

I will be going on a cruise in May and just got an email from Royal Caribbean stating that EVERYONE'S temp will be taken before getting on the ship.

This is probably going to happen at more places too.

Also RC has said they will let you cancel and use your funds for a future cruise. I also think this will happen at more places. No refunds but allowed to use at future date.

I would not be going on any cruises right now and risk being stranded because of an infected individual.

Right out of those 20% there will be some who stay home and treat themselves and some who will be hospitalized. WIll never know real number.

No. A hospitalization rate takes the known infected count into account in the denominator already. But, I do question the accuracy of that 20% figure.
This is the problem I refer to in my previous post that an active infection in no absolute way can be measured just with one statistic.

Employees of Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Twitter, and Lockheed Martin in the Silicon Valley all are working from now.

 

[eeyoreandtink]

No. A hospitalization rate takes the known infected count into account in the denominator already. But, I do question the accuracy of that 20% figure.

Key word is KNOWN, and they are now thinking the number of unknown cases far outweighs the known.

 

[HokieRaven5]

The assumption that it just goes unchecked as it doubles exactly is incorrect.
There is no treatment for this disease (yet).



20% hospitalization ratio is A LOT when you compare it to just ~2% for the regular seasonal flu.

But the assumption that it's going to continue to double every 3 days is also incorrect. My point is if we are making statements that this virus is capable of doubling its infected every 3 days, we could presume that there should be more along the lines of over 3 Million cases of this right now. Now there's variability to that estimate obviously but when we're currently at 101,000 reported cases, that's a significant disparity right now.

 

[Spridell]

I would not be going on any cruises right now and risk being stranded because of an infected individual.



No. A hospitalization rate takes the known infected count into account in the denominator already. But, I do question the accuracy of that 20% figure.
This is the problem I refer to in my previous post that an active infection in no absolute way can be measured just with one statistic.

Employees of Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Twitter, and Lockheed Martin in the Silicon Valley all are working from now.

I am not the type of person who lives my life in fear. Never have been. Never will be

Everyone is different

I will be going to Disney next week again, going on my cruise in May, Disney for 5 days end if May etc....

 

[DVC92]

Along with additional hand sanitizers, how about doing away with the finger scans or cast members sanitize the scanner after each use.

As to the virus, I don't believe it overly worse than many common viruses, but it has been hyped to the max. Most people who get it appear to have no or minor symptoms so they don't get checked which makes the death rate seem higher than it actually is. On one cruise ship, around 700 people were diagnosed with the virus but half of them had no symtoms. As with any virus, there are immuno-compromised people who unfortunately get very ill and in some cases die.

 

[Spridell]

Along with additional hand sanitizers, how about doing away with the finger scans or cast members sanitize the scanner after each use.

As to the virus, I don't believe it overly worse than many common viruses, but it has been hyped to the max. Most people who get it appear to have no or minor symptoms so they don't get checked which makes the death rate seem higher than it actually is. On one cruise ship, around 700 people were diagnosed with the virus but half of them had no symtoms. As with any virus, there are immuno-compromised people who unfortunately get very ill and in some cases die.

CM are sanitizing the touchpoints. at least they were in HS on Wednesday.

 

[eeyoreandtink]

Along with additional hand sanitizers, how about doing away with the finger scans or cast members sanitize the scanner after each use.

Or, place hand sanitizer next to the scanner and encourage people to use it after scanning. We have a fingerprint scanner on our time clock at work and we have been doing this for years. There is a sanitizer station next to the clock.

 

[wilkydelts]

It is clear that people on this thread are on completely different ends of the spectrum.

One side thinks the other side is overreacting and fear mongering, while the other side thinks the other is just blowing this whole thing off and not giving it proper respect.

 

[Spridell]

It is clear that people on this thread are on completely different ends of the spectrum.

One side thinks the other side is overreacting and fear mongering, while the other side thinks the other is just blowing this whole thing off and not giving it proper respect.

That's not a bad thing though. That is good for a nice healthy conversation

 

[eeyoreandtink]

It is clear that people on this thread are on completely different ends of the spectrum.

One side thinks the other side is overreacting and fear mongering, while the other side thinks the other is just blowing this whole thing off and not giving it proper respect.

I think you are right. I do think it is is good to hear from opposing viewpoints on this. I think it encourages everyone to really think about what they are seeing/ reading and to wade through the propaganda to find the truth.

 

[Haley R]

CM are sanitizing the touchpoints. at least they were in HS on Wednesday.

We were at Epcot and HS yesterday and I didn’t see anyone sanitizing the touchpoints

 

[wilkydelts]

@Spridell and @eeyoreandtink I was not judging anyone or the thread. Just an observation that it is very divided

 

[Spridell]

We were at Epcot and HS yesterday and I didn’t see anyone sanitizing the touchpoints

Not my pic (from another site)

But I did see it on Wed

 

[HokieRaven5]

@Spridell and @eeyoreandtink I was not judging anyone or the thread. Just an observation that it is very divided

As long as folks maintain a level of civility about it it's great. People are allowed to be afraid of this as much as people are allowed to be more dismissive of this situation. There are plenty of folks in between for sure, just those folks won't be as passionate to really provide a comment about it and be more passive observers of conversation.

I for one appreciate that I was able to save a bunch of points on my flights thanks to folks choosing to cancel their own plans!

If things start to really get worse I would contemplate cancelling but I have until 15 days prior to make that decision. So I'm going to wait and see until then before I make a reaction to what's going on and my trip. Again this is my situation and others will obviously have differing circumstances.

 

[Spridell]

As long as folks maintain a level of civility about it it's great. People are allowed to be afraid of this as much as people are allowed to be more dismissive of this situation. There are plenty of folks in between for sure, just those folks won't be as passionate to really provide a comment about it and be more passive observers of conversation.

I for one appreciate that I was able to save a bunch of points on my flights thanks to folks choosing to cancel their own plans!

ALWAYS above anything do what's best for you and your family. That goes for EVERYTHING not just Disney.

 

[Amylc]

My husband and I both got flu shots and hubby got influenza A last month He stayed home from work a few days and that was that. So he got sick even with the shot.

 

[godisney14]

That's not a bad thing though. That is good for a nice healthy conversation

I always remember this line from a business management book I’ve read a long time ago in school: “If two people always agree on everything, then one is dispensable.”

My husband and I both got flu shots and hubby got influenza A last month He stayed home from work a few days and that was that. So he got sick even with the shot.

Flu shots are all based on prediction and percentages. Just like any other medicine, and anything in science in general, nothing is 100% positive to work for 100% of the population. Medical tests have sensitivity and specificity ratings.
By getting a flu vaccine shot, you’re increasing the chances of being symptom free.