coronavirus

[wilkydelts]

Look at who is running the “government task force”. The hype machine that is this administration.

This is not a political board. There will be as many who agree with your views as well as disagree with them. Leave politics alone

 

[eeyoreandtink]

This is not a political board. There will be as many who agree with your views as well as disagree with them. Leave politics alone

Understood, yet we have to consider the source of all the info we are getting.

 

[TheFloatingBear]

Yeah little slow on these test kits

According to what I saw about the presser, there are new guidelines from the CDC that any "American can be tested, no restrictions, subject to dr's orders." So that seems helpful...

 

[hmsTigger]

-did you know that in China, the mortality rate is ~2% for the coronavirus
-SARS had a 10% global mortality rate in 2003
-MERS had a 34% global mortality rate in 2012

-when my mother was in the hospital last week getting surgery done to stop her breast cancer from spreading, her doctor told her that in that hospital alone there were over 100 cases of the flu.
-there are 1 billion estimated cases of the flu annually
-of which about 650,000 deaths annually are because of the flu

-of those that DO get the coronavirus , 80% experience nothing worse than a common cold
-the World Health Organization has not released travel restrictions
-Harvard Medical School says its' weaker than the flu

_Wuhan China has the highest concentration of Coronavirus. Out of a population of about 75-million, about 75-Thousand have gotten ill. So if you are in the epicenter there is a 1-in-1000 chance you will get ill.

how many people die of cancer every day?
how many people die in car accidents everyday?
how many people die from mosquito bites every day?

i have a 1 in 8 chance of getting breast cancer
so i'm going to wash my hands...then check my breasts.

Good Luck to your mom Happy Travels.

 

[godisney14]

We will never get an accurate # of cases.

(I hope I'm not preaching to a fellow professional.)

You're right. A lot of subclinical will go undetected. Many of the case counts are from patients who have voluntarily reached out for medical attention or was too sick and got sent into the ER. So, it's hard to know an accurate prevalence.

With an active infectious disease, especially that of an unknown pathogen, it is misleading and biased to report just one statistic without context and assumptions. That's why the study of epidemiology has numerous ratios in the toolbox to study diseases. It depends on what you want to study of a disease.

Just as an exercise, take mortality rate (not even morbidity rate). What would you put in the numerator and denominator given the current situation worldwide. The "n" sample size is not statistically large enough in the US yet to make a valid comparison to that in China or an accurate statement for the state of the US. The nursing home in Washington really skews the data. But, that doesn't mean the rate is accurate or inaccurate as long as you mention what you're measuring and the context of the numbers used.

If you include all new active cases in the denominator, you also get an inaccurate measure of the true mortality rate. Why? Because you have set a timeframe in the numerator (every case that ended with a known outcome, being deceased) but you use ongoing case count, which you have no idea of the outcome, in the denominator. That's why there are ratios called the incidence and prevalence rates.


Back on topic of Disney.....
As a large DIS shareholder, I don't want the parks here to close. As a human being, I think it may eventually have to close if the situation continues at this rate.

 

[GADisneyDad14]

A reminder of DISBoard rules - politics is not allowed in any form: https://www.wdwinfo.com/guidelines.htm

Political related posts will be a quick way to infraction points and/or getting this thread closed.

Thank you.

 

[MBELSANTI]

The biggest convention center in US, McCormick place cancelled upcoming international housewares show. So nothing surprises me at this point.

 

[Ben E N]

The biggest convention center in US, McCormick place cancelled upcoming international housewares show. So nothing surprises me at this point.

The Arnold Fitness Classic in Columbus, Ohio also got cancelled. It's a huge weightlifting and fitness expo that was set to begin on Friday.

 

[coasterbillm]

I look at the South Korea number. They have a great healthcare system and have tested a ton of people. I’m sure they’ve still missed a bunch of people but their death rate is about half a percent just of the cases that they know about, but they know about a lot (0.5-0.6%).

Obviously the real number is probably down below half a percent but that’s the country I would be looking at for the best data as of now given the sample size, quality of the healthcare system and the amount of testing that they’re doing compared to everyone else.

 

[Ben E N]

I look at the South Korea number. They have a great healthcare system and have tested a ton of people. I’m sure they’ve still missed a bunch of people but their death rate is about half a percent just of the cases that they know about, but they know about a lot (0.5-0.6%).

Obviously the real number is probably down below half a percent but that’s the country I would be looking at for the best data as of now given the sample size, quality of the healthcare system and the amount of testing that they’re doing compared to everyone else.

I thought that this article was pretty informative. Once China got over the initial shock of having thousands of sick people with no real idea how to help them, their death rates have also plummeted. Only .7% outside of Wuhan.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...th-rate-from-coronavirus-is-plunging-in-china
It's encouraging data for sure, but also shows why it is so important to limit the amount of exposure. Helping 20 people get better is a lot easier than helping 20,000.

 

[quandrea]

I look at the South Korea number. They have a great healthcare system and have tested a ton of people. I’m sure they’ve still missed a bunch of people but their death rate is about half a percent just of the cases that they know about, but they know about a lot (0.5-0.6%).

Obviously the real number is probably down below half a percent but that’s the country I would be looking at for the best data as of now given the sample size, quality of the healthcare system and the amount of testing that they’re doing compared to everyone else.

I thought that this article was pretty informative. Once China got over the initial shock of having thousands of sick people with no real idea how to help them, their death rates have also plummeted. Only .7% outside of Wuhan.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...th-rate-from-coronavirus-is-plunging-in-china
It's encouraging data for sure, but also shows why it is so important to limit the amount of exposure. Helping 20 people get better is a lot easier than helping 20,000.

It’s messages like this that encourage me. The death rate has been scary for me with a dh who is fifty five with hypertension and asthma. I know he’s still in a vulnerable population, but these numbers cheer me.

 

[eeyoreandtink]

I look at the South Korea number. They have a great healthcare system and have tested a ton of people. I’m sure they’ve still missed a bunch of people but their death rate is about half a percent just of the cases that they know about, but they know about a lot (0.5-0.6%).

Obviously the real number is probably down below half a percent but that’s the country I would be looking at for the best data as of now given the sample size, quality of the healthcare system and the amount of testing that they’re doing compared to everyone else.

This a really great metric that i didn't even think about exploring. Thanks!

 

[jbish]

Can I ask those who are actually concerned and not of the opinion this is not a big deal and all hype a question?

What would you do with a long spring break trip with rented DVC points, 2 studios worth? It is a ton of money we would be throwing away if we don’t go, ignoring tickets and plane tickets where I’m assuming there is a bit more wiggle room. Our insurance is useless until Canada advises against travel to the US.

I'll weigh in with my two cents. We have a trip also at Spring Break - will be there in exactly 30 days. I really only want to cancel if things are dire. DH wants to make a call, either way, soon so that we can plan something else, if needed. I just think it's too early to call.

We are DVC so we are using our points, not renting, as in your case. Even still, I don't want to throw away the money we have spent that we would lose (mostly the cost of our DAH tickets - do we know, yet, what would happen with park tickets?). I just think that we will have to take all of the appropriate precautions (like I'm wiping down our seats on the airplane before we sit down) and just be vigilant for signs of any illness. The only thing we won't know is if we become an unknowing carrier of the virus and add to the spread. But what can we do? I don't want to live in fear and miss out on something that I've been looking forward to. You and I have been stalking the ROTR BG thread, so I know you are looking forward to this trip just as much as I am. I'm not ready to give up on this. In my mind, this decision will have to be made for me, like a true travel advisory/the parks close down.

 

[DaisyNY]

I'll weigh in with my two cents. We have a trip also at Spring Break - will be there in exactly 30 days. I really only want to cancel if things are dire. DH wants to make a call, either way, soon so that we can plan something else, if needed. I just think it's too early to call.

We are DVC so we are using our points, not renting, as in your case. Even still, I don't want to throw away the money we have spent that we would lose (mostly the cost of our DAH tickets - do we know, yet, what would happen with park tickets?). I just think that we will have to take all of the appropriate precautions (like I'm wiping down our seats on the airplane before we sit down) and just be vigilant for signs of any illness. The only thing we won't know is if we become an unknowing carrier of the virus and add to the spread. But what can we do? I don't want to live in fear and miss out on something that I've been looking forward to. You and I have been stalking the ROTR BG thread, so I know you are looking forward to this trip just as much as I am. I'm not ready to give up on this. In my mind, this decision will have to be made for me, like a true travel advisory/the parks close down.

We are 50 days out...and am just sitting and watching the news, these boards, and other info every day. I too feel the decision will be made for me if travel advisory and/or parks close down. Hoping that by our trip things will settle down a bit and the powers that be will have a better handle on this all! Fingers and toes crossed!

 

[MaryMichelotti]

We are going May 12 to 20 and will be celebrating my daughter's 5th birthday. She has been so excited and telling everyone she is going to Disney World for her birthday. I'm trying to be optimistic that things will be fine by then but in case of closure do you think I should prep her for the possibility that the trip won't happen?

 

[TwoMisfits]

We are going May 12 to 20 and will be celebrating my daughter's 5th birthday. She has been so excited and telling everyone she is going to Disney World for her birthday. I'm trying to be optimistic that things will be fine by then but in case of closure do you think I should prep her for the possibility that the trip won't happen?

I'd prep her that it will happen, but maybe not for her birthday, but her unbirthday...that way, it's not "never", it becomes just "maybe not now"...

We are also dealing with how to handle a birthday for our youngest, who is the only one who doesn't "know" at all what's happening of my 4 kids...so of course, it's his birthday which is coming and might be affected...

 

[DGsAtBLT]

I'll weigh in with my two cents. We have a trip also at Spring Break - will be there in exactly 30 days. I really only want to cancel if things are dire. DH wants to make a call, either way, soon so that we can plan something else, if needed. I just think it's too early to call.

We are DVC so we are using our points, not renting, as in your case. Even still, I don't want to throw away the money we have spent that we would lose (mostly the cost of our DAH tickets - do we know, yet, what would happen with park tickets?). I just think that we will have to take all of the appropriate precautions (like I'm wiping down our seats on the airplane before we sit down) and just be vigilant for signs of any illness. The only thing we won't know is if we become an unknowing carrier of the virus and add to the spread. But what can we do? I don't want to live in fear and miss out on something that I've been looking forward to. You and I have been stalking the ROTR BG thread, so I know you are looking forward to this trip just as much as I am. I'm not ready to give up on this. In my mind, this decision will have to be made for me, like a true travel advisory/the parks close down.

Thank you, I really appreciate your 2 cents!

We are so excited for this trip, first stay at the Poly, all the new stuff, near perfect FP line up, etc. I’ve pulled way back from the RotR thread and the boards in general incase we really do have to not go. Bums me out too much. On the bright side, it has 100% adjusted my expectations for this trip, if it’s super crowded and we ride next to nothing at least we made it there lol.

But I still had a dream about getting a BG last night. I got BG 3, by the way, from inside my old middle school. I am in my 30s .

 

[jbish]

Thank you, I really appreciate your 2 cents!

We are so excited for this trip, first stay at the Poly, all the new stuff, near perfect FP line up, etc. I’ve pulled way back from the RotR thread and the boards in general incase we really do have to not go. Bums me out too much. On the bright side, it has 100% adjusted my expectations for this trip, if it’s super crowded and we ride next to nothing at least we made it there lol.

But I still had a dream about getting a BG last night. I got BG 3, by the way, from inside my old middle school. I am in my 30s .

LOL - man, the mashup dreams are the trippiest. You've been thinking about BGs too much!!

My theory is that there will be some people that cancel due to fears of the virus and others that will decide not to do a last minute trip to WDW because of it. Fingers crossed that maybe the crowds won't be ***that bad***, though I'm prepared for the worst!! Let's make the most of this trip!!

 

[scard192]

We are 50 days out...and am just sitting and watching the news, these boards, and other info every day. I too feel the decision will be made for me if travel advisory and/or parks close down. Hoping that by our trip things will settle down a bit and the powers that be will have a better handle on this all! Fingers and toes crossed!

agree 100%. 7 weeks from today we will be at MK, FP+ for Big Thunder, PP and Splash. Dinner at Chef Mickey.
we have semi alternate plans to push the trip back to October but hoping we won't have to.

 

[mickeyway]

Anyone changing their vacations in light of the Corona Virus? Does being in large crowds with people from all over the world touching the handrails, the attraction lap bars and handrails, wearing glasses and such worry you at all? Will you pack a large supply of hand sanitizer and just go? We are going for Easter but may skip the parks and just hang at our rental. Not sure yet. Curious what others are doing.