Contracts drying up??

[AstroBlasters]

I suspect Poly’s high price/low incentives could further (temporarily) depress number of contracts and raise prices around the MK resort area. The way I see it is if you planned to buy 200 points at $185/pt, but just can’t make it work at $210/pt (I think that’s the right price?), suddenly you have about 30-35k you might feel good about buying BLT/VGF/PVB or even CCV resale. Or maybe you just snatch up one of the 2042 resorts around $100/pt and decide you’ll deal with restrictions in a decade (or the next direct fire sale)— at the same time with prices so high, probably less appealing to try to sell your resale points and convert them to PVB direct?

There are 135 PVB’s on the market and most are very expensive. Something’s got to give here….

 

[disneylandtour]

There are 135 PVB’s on the market and most are very expensive. Something’s got to give here….

Just start making offers--especially to those contracts that have been sitting there for two to three months. There's a lot of those. Clearly, those at six months, the sellers don't care. But at two months, some of those sellers will start to be nervous about selling at all, especially before MF come due again.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Just start making offers--especially to those contracts that have been sitting there for two to three months. There's a lot of those. Clearly, those at six months, the sellers don't care. But at two months, some of those sellers will start to be nervous about selling at all, especially before MF come due again.

No desire to own Poly, although I hope to stay there someday.

I’m just making a market observation.

 

[E2ME2]

The lower priced resorts are certainly going up. But Poly is going down now (finally), as is VGF. BLT is also down. BLT is the current bargain IMO. But yes, OWKe, SSR, and AKV are all up based on what I've been seeing for the past few months. I'm really glad that I added on earlier this year.

I agree - BLT Resale is the bargain MK resort right now.
I'm on the lookout for the right fit, but there's nothing in my use-year/point-size on the market right now.

 

[CastAStone]

There are 135 PVB’s on the market and most are very expensive. Something’s got to give here….

Yeh it’s wild that Poly, with ~7% of DVC points, represents ~14% of available contracts. I think PVB prices will keep falling (while most other resorts will be creeping up)

 

[CastAStone]

My propriety resale contract availability benchmarking scale™ (RCABS™) (I totally didn’t just make this up in Excel 10 minutes ago ) indicates that there are nearly 3X as many VB and PVB contracts for sale as would be needed to support price equilibrium, and nearly 2X as many VGC contracts for sale as would be needed. Watch for falling prices.

Meanwhile VGF, BLT, BWV, and Aulani are very much drying up and all are very much poised to see increasing prices. BCV and SSR are both meaningfully below where RCABS would expect price equilibrium to be as well.

Riviera also is very, very tight on contracts based on the RCABS scale but further validation of the RCABS model is required to understand its utility with resorts in round 1 of active sales.

 

[aammtt20]

My propriety resale contract availability benchmarking scale™ (RCABS™) (I totally didn’t just make this up in Excel 10 minutes ago ) indicates that there are nearly 3X as many VB and PVB contracts for sale as would be needed to support price equilibrium, and nearly 2X as many VGC contracts for sale as would be needed. Watch for falling prices.

Meanwhile VGF, BLT, BWV, and Aulani are very much drying up and all are very much poised to see increasing prices. BCV and SSR are both meaningfully below where RCABS would expect price equilibrium to be as well.

Riviera also is very, very tight on contracts based on the RCABS scale but further validation of the RCABS model is required to understand its utility with resorts in round 1 of active sales.

This is exactly the kind of analysis I come to this forum for.

 

[kgou]

There are 135 PVB’s on the market and most are very expensive. Something’s got to give here….

a 25 pt Poly resale contract is priced mere dollars below what one would pay buying Poly direct ...and it's stripped. Surely Poly resale has got to drop. To echo AstroBlasters, something's gotta give!

 

[AstroBlasters]

a 25 pt Poly resale contract is priced mere dollars below what one would pay buying Poly direct ...and it's stripped. Surely Poly resale has got to drop. To echo AstroBlasters, something's gotta give!

And direct shows up within an hour…. resale will take 2+ months….

 

[kgou]

And direct shows up within an hour…. resale will take 2+ months….

exactly!! I was amazed at how quickly we got our direct points last year compared to the wait with resale. such a contrast!

 

[AstroBlasters]

My propriety resale contract availability benchmarking scale™ (RCABS™) (I totally didn’t just make this up in Excel 10 minutes ago ) indicates that there are nearly 3X as many VB and PVB contracts for sale as would be needed to support price equilibrium, and nearly 2X as many VGC contracts for sale as would be needed. Watch for falling prices.

Meanwhile VGF, BLT, BWV, and Aulani are very much drying up and all are very much poised to see increasing prices. BCV and SSR are both meaningfully below where RCABS would expect price equilibrium to be as well.

Riviera also is very, very tight on contracts based on the RCABS scale but further validation of the RCABS model is required to understand its utility with resorts in round 1 of active sales.

Falling VGC prices say…. don’t mind if I do….

 

[CastAStone]

Falling VGC prices say…. don’t mind if I do….

There’s a shockingly attractive contract out there right now…I know I can’t post details but I couldn’t help but notice it…

 

[AstroBlasters]

There’s a shockingly attractive contract out there right now…I know I can’t post details but I couldn’t help but notice it…

I believe its sister contract was already snapped up… not by me….

 

[VGCgroupie]

There’s a shockingly attractive contract out there right now…I know I can’t post details but I couldn’t help but notice it…

I believe its sister contract was already snapped up… not by me….

Always gotta be a June UY on the good ones.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Always gotta be a June UY on the good ones.

I’m pretty happy with my VGC 125 pointer with full points for $230 that is going through ROFR right now.

Between that and two AUL-S with banked points at $120ish earlier this year….my bar for “shockingly attractive” is pretty high.

That one BCV for $100pp in the ROFR thread …. that would qualify!

 

[CastAStone]

I’m pretty happy with my VGC 125 pointer with full points for $230 that is going through ROFR right now.

Was that the listed price though? That is definitely a good price on VGC.

 

[BuzzLightyr]

I'd imagine that many of the PVB listings are opportunistic. Brokers shared crazy prices with potential sellers to drum up interest, but at actual clearing prices sellers may want to keep their contracts, try out the new tower and maybe sell later.

I wonder if the recent hurricane will bring out sellers for Vero and HHI. Neither appear impacted but the fear for higher dues could bring out some deals.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Was that the listed price though? That is definitely a good price on VGC.

It was listed at $235.

With additional news…. I have another accepted VGC offer…. details to follow in ROFR in a couple of days if everything goes as expected. Not an “incredible deal”… but a very fair deal.

 

[VGCgroupie]

It was listed at $235.

With additional news…. I have another accepted VGC offer…. details to follow in ROFR in a couple of days if everything goes as expected. Not an “incredible deal”… but a very fair deal.

Is it the one I think it is?

 

[AstroBlasters]

Is it the one I think it is?

Nope. I left that one for you.