We have noted your "standing-pat" at 900, and we know that you are just waiting for the right contract to join the >1000 Club!
Because no one wants to pay $160 for them so they’re just sitting.
This. More specifically I presume it’s sellers refusing to lower prices (hoping that PVB direct will be above $185 even with all discounts?) and buyers waiting to see if they can get PVB direct below $190? I know everybody’s direct points premium value calculation is different, but even as someone who already has two Y card contracts, I would not buy resale unless I was getting at least $20/pt discount…and then you have to consider that direct often comes with an extra year of points and you get it immediately. If you’re foaming at the mouth to stay at Poly Tower in the first half 2025, it may already be too late to buy resale because those rooms could be snapped up by the time you close, have points recorded, etc.
The uncertainty is something. I have seen one contract in the same UY I have for Poly but why buy now? I got a cash room for the tower in December which I am excited to stay in. The extra year of points as well.
One idea for a trap/penalty is if the points are all wacky, like they got borrowed into a current (ending) UY and the next UY is empty, or if there's a bunch of banked points expiring soon, so the contract doesn't look as loaded as it might be at first glance. Note: I am not in the market to buy or sell any points right now, so feel free to ignore!Since you asked… in my opinion it’s much cleaner to have the stars be purely based on value and then having maybe a red x or red flag or some separate indicator that alerts the buyer to look for traps.(who knew there was an emoji for trap, maybe use that one instead, lol)
I wonder if some are owners who bought restricted resale who might be interested in subsidizing an upgrade of their points. I do know a bunch of VGF resale points in smaller contracts sold for quite a premium before new VGF was announced.
We sold our PVB contract in May for $169.50 per point. We were able to still make a profit after the 8% comp after just having bought our contract in October 2022. My feelings about PVB prices at the time was similar to the ones I had when I was holding PARA in March of 2021. Most things don't shoot up in price and stay there. I still look at that PVB contract as something unlikely to be repeated. It provided us with 22 nights of bookings for under $3,000 in total (half of those nights were LV studios at PVB).
Prices haven’t ticked up at most resorts, at least not yet!
There's movement. In terms of resale, Poly and OKW are noticeably up. BLT is down, but I think is a good buy as the reno should drive it back up. And Aulani is down. I'd say most everything else is just fluctuating within a range.
Isn’t it more accurate to say that Poly spiked up and is drifting back down (for now anyway…if DVD wants to sell it above $200 after incentives, I think they’re going to have to pull the ROFR lever a bit more).
Probably a couple of sites to either avoid or to carefully consider before contacting.
That’s the recipe for rising prices. I’d anticipate both Fidelity and DVCRM show higher average August sales prices than any other point this year.
I’d still be surprised to see any significant across the board increase—but perhaps a nudge up at a few resorts? My thinking is that everybody who HAD to sell probably has and then a lot of marginal sellers are staying on the sidelines, but I’d be surprised if too many buyers are suddenly excited to pay materially more for resale.
Yeah, I think it will be a mixed bag. There’s certainly still resorts (e.g. VB, VGC) with a ton of inventory vs their historical norms that will likely keep falling. There’s just also a lot of resorts where the opposite is true.
