It's probably a moot point anyway since I doubt DVC will be able to price gouge us, even for something like the Contemporary.
I'm putting on my finance hat here, which admittedly I don't wear very often. Most people who do any sort of breakeven analysis on their DVC purchase (with reasonable assumptions of the future) will probably find a breakeven point in the neighborhood of 8 years when compared to resort cash rates. My guess is that this is about the upper limit of what most potential owners will accept.
The fairly steep DVC price increases that have been witnessed in years past may end up being more of a correction than a forecast of what is to come.
My guess is that DVC price increases will closely mirror WDW rack rate increase levels as time goes on. This has less to do with whether they are selling points at SSR, Contemporary or the All-Stars (

), but more to do with the economics of the purchase. The lone 2004 price increase was a little over 6% (from $89 to 95). The pending '05 increase is about 3% ($95 to 98.)
Let's say they go forward with the Contemporary and that the resort opens in about 5 years. It's reasonable to assume that they will keep the 2054 ending date from SSR (as they did with the 5 resorts built after OKW). CR owners may only get about 44 years' worth of use from their points. If the breakeven point on the initial investment were to creep up toward 10-12-15 years...the DVC concept becomes irrelevant to the buyer. You'd be better off putting your cash into an interest-bearing annuity, and using the proceeds to pay for your trips.
Some would certainly argue that the attraction of points at the Contemporary would cause DVC to throw the rules out the window. That certainly could happen. But, IMO, if they do rewrite the rules for the CR, it's more likely to be evident in the
point chart than the point purchase cost. If a single night at the CR costs 10-15% more points than at BCV, that will also impact the total breakeven since you get less value from each point used (at least when used at the CR.)
A higher point chart would probably be a very good thing as it would help balance demand (much as the higher point weekends reportedly do at current resorts), but that's a topic for another thread.
