It has been our experience that we have always gotten everything we wanted we we stayed CL, including CRT every trip within 30 minutes of the time we requested. I don't know about Le Cellier because it was never on our must do list, but we got Cali Grill, V & A, Jiko, Sci Fi, Coral Reef, CRT, Brown Derby Fantasmic package, etc with absolutely no trouble whatsoever. Even when we booked our trips well within the old 180 booking time frame. I don't know if it is still just as easy to work with them now that the booking window is down to 90 days, but I would guess that nothing has changed. This was still true for us as of a year ago (our last stay CL), although admittedly we were going at a less crowded time than
free dining. We did go during free dining the previous fall while staying at CL, and we did get exactly what we wanted then, too. I don't know if we were just very lucky every time or if CL gets you extra priority. Based on our experiences, I would say your odds of getting what you want increase substantially at CL.
We always stayed CL until we bought
DVC... no longer staying CL is the closest thing we have to a regret about owning DVC, but the size of the rooms makes up for it. Sure, we loved the free food and drinks, but we particularly loved someone else handling our ADRS, and the ease of making changes through quick emails.