Chicken Little Box Office Estimate Thread

[DisneyKidds]

Fortunately for Disney, those like-able characters are what keep the kids attention, so that may be enough to give it some legs.

Alas, this is another aspect of Disney's wayward path regarding animation the last ten years. Disney used to make great stories that were timeless and appealed to all ages. Now they settle for just grabbing the kids.

I fell in love with Disney back in the days of The Little Mermaid. The film release was an event. The release was celebrated at WDW and the incredible music from that movie, as it played throughout Old Port Royale at the Caribbean Beach as we checked in for our honeymoon, remains one of my most endearing memories. The characters from that film would go on to be the subject of numerous rides, shows and attractions. That is the kind of thing Disney used to be able to do, to capture the hearts and imaginations of all ages and provide endless material to support the theme parks.

Will anyone remember Chicken Little the film, wax nostalgic about the musical score, or even know who the characters were in a year? or in 15 years? I doubt either.

Is that because people just don't care, or is it because Disney just doesn't put forth the effort anymore?

 

[crusader]

Well I'm beginning to understand what the problem is:

You'd have a $1.25.

You counted the wrong ships. Literal prophaganda will do that to you.

btw - The marketing machine wasn't the problem here. The marketing dept was. (check the movie out and you'll understand)

Round 2? That's just more talking head stuff that goes on between rounds.

Funny. So what does that say about Voice's post which was completely scripted for Hollywood's listening pleasure. At least I provided a substantive basis for my own analogy. Where's yours?

 

[crusader]

The only "formula" supported around here is to focus on storytelling.

No.

There have been questions raised regarding whether its possible for a company to produce a film a year while maintaining a focus on storytelling,

Questions raised by whom? Analysts and critics? I'm talking about Pixar's formula which doesn't raise any question about this. They give the production the time it deserves.

but certainly the viewpoint on that is not unanimous.

Now whom in Pixar's camp are you talking about here? Lasseter's formula has been unanimously implemented for 20 years at his company. And if you're not talking about Pixar, then you really need to explain this.

 

[raidermatt]

You counted the wrong ships. Literal prophaganda will do that to you.

Nonetheless, the fleet continues to underperform... but we've been down that round before.

btw - The marketing machine wasn't the problem here. The marketing dept was. (check the movie out and you'll understand)

The marketing department is a pretty important cog in that machine. In fact, they direct the machine, so if there's trouble there, there's trouble period. Sort of like having a state of the art animation department, but not having the right people running it.

Funny. So what does that say about Voice's post which was edited for Hollywood's listening pleasure. At least I gave you a substantive basis for my own analogy. Where's yours?

There is no substansive basis for including pure speculation from outsiders as part of the actual "confrontation". And yes, that includes AV's post. That's not a comment about the quality of what they are saying, only that their speculation, like anyone else's, is not part of the actual happenings, or "fight".

There have been those who have said Disney didn't gain any substantial leverage, and those that have said they have gained some measure of leverage. Each of those does not constitute a "round".

All it does is show is that there's obviously some disagreement on the subject, which at this point, only provides some validation for both sides, but does not invalidate either.

 

[raidermatt]

Now whom in Pixar's camp are you talking about here? Lasseter's formula has been unanimously implemented for 20 years at his company. And if you're not talking about Pixar, then you really need to explain this.

Sorry, I didn't get that you were equating Disney's delaying of their films to Pixar's "formula" of taking the time to do it right.

I can't believe you're actually doing that, which is probably why I overlooked it.

So if they hadn't delayed, you would be saying they haven't adopted Pixar's successful "formula"?

Of course not.

The delays offer zero evidence that Disney is adopting anything.

I'm talking about Pixar's formula which doesn't raise any question about this. They give the production the time it deserves.

Exactly, which is a part of telling a good story, which again, is Pixar's "formula".

You can't really be saying that everytime a production is delayed, its because the filmmakers are adopting a Pixar-like approach that they didn't have before?

The search for "formulas" is part of what has got Disney, and much of Hollywood, into so much trouble.

 

[crusader]

Not I

When I posed the rhetorical isn't that what WE want, I really wasn't speaking in the first person.

You're a big advocate for the long terms; hypotheticals and modelling plans which I guess placed you in the above category.

Are you saying taking a few years to produce a film isn't a formula worth pursuing? And here I thought we were talking about Art.

Does art really have a one year deadline? And if so, doesn't that contaminate that oh so rare and delicate key ingredient to every animated feature film's winning formula labelled Quality?????

The search for "formulas" is part of what has got Disney, and much of Hollywood, into so much trouble

Not true. Formulas a/k/a winning combinations a/k/a doing whatever it takes isn't what got Hollywood into trouble. Try greed on for size.

 

[YoHo]

Greed in the form of sustainable predictable profits lead to formulaic production which reduced the "Art" involved. And all films have deadlines. Often they're missed, but they still try as much as possible to stick to them.

 

[raidermatt]

Does art really have a one year deadline? And if so, doesn't that contaminate that oh so rare and delicate key ingredient to every animated feature film's winning formula labelled Quality?????

Of course it doesn't.

Once again, a delay does not necessarily equal "taking more time to produce great art".

You're trying to draw a correlation that does not exist.

Not true. Formulas a/k/a winning combinations a/k/a doing whatever it takes isn't what got Hollywood into trouble. Try greed on for size.

Well of course its greed. But as YoHo said, in this case, one of its manifestations is to find the easy formula to success. Make it like producing widgets. You find a widget everybody likes, then you make a whole bunch just like it.

I'm sure you know the story about how Pixar presented Toy Story to Disney, and the Disney guys immediately started asking where the seven songs would be...

Trying to copy the Pixar "formula" is a futile endeavor unless you first realize that storytelling must be the single most important element. And once you've realized that, and made a committment to execute it, AND found the right people to execute it, then you'd realize you had your "formula".

You don't look a Pixar and say it takes X amount of time for them to make a film, so let's make our time X. Don't work that way.

Once again, delays do not mean a "committment to quality". They are just as often an indication of real problems as they are of real solutions. That's why I said the news of the delays is at best, neutral.

 

[BRERALEX]

Welcome to the Cluck




(stolen from box office mojo)

 

[BRERALEX]

Jarhead won Monday with $1,964,965 to CL's $1,916,322

I just thought that was interesting.

 

[BRERALEX]

how delightful and timely

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051108...f9xFb8C;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--

Pixar Animation Studios 3Q Earnings Rise By GARY GENTILE, AP Business Writer
41 minutes ago



LOS ANGELES - Pixar Animation Studios Inc., which produced such films as "The Incredibles" and "Finding Nemo," reported Tuesday that its third quarter earnings rose 22 percent on robust home video sales of older titles.

The company also sounded a hopeful note about reaching a new distribution deal with longtime partner The Walt Disney Co. by year's end.

"We are in deep discussions with Disney," Pixar CEO Steve Jobs said during a conference call with analysts. He noted that Pixar would have liked to have had a new deal in place by now.

Talks between the two companies ended late last year due to personal tensions between Jobs and former Disney CEO Michael Eisner. Serious negotiations resumed soon after Robert Iger succeeded Eisner last month.

"It's worth the few extra months of effort if there is a chance of continuing our relationship with Disney and our discussions right now are very productive," Jobs said.

Pixar, based in Emeryville, Calif., said it earned $27.4 million, or 22 cents per share, for the three months ended Oct. 1 compared to $22.4 million, or 19 cents per share, in the same period last year.

Revenue rose slightly to $45.8 million from $44.5 million in the third quarter of 2004.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had expected earnings of 11 cents per share. The results were also higher than the 8 cents to 12 cents per share the company had previously forecast for the quarter.

Pixar shares surged 5.6 percent, or $2.86, in aftermarket trading Tuesday after the report was released. Earlier, the stock fell $1.87, or 3.5 percent, to close at $50.88 on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

Pixar said 3 cents per share of the upside surprise was due to higher than expected revenue from home video sales of "Finding Nemo." The rest was due to a lower than expected tax rate and a one-time reduction in expenses.

The company said it expected fourth quarter earnings of 13 cents to 17 cents per share, mainly from revenue generated by the broadcast of its films on television.

Disney will rerelease "Toy Story 2" on Dec. 26. Pixar Chief Financial Officer Simon Bax explained the unusual timing, saying the idea is to take advantage of one of the strongest shopping days of the year, when people were looking to spend gift cards received for Christmas.

The company had warned earlier in the year that home video sales of its most recent film, "The Incredibles," were not as strong as expected. Pixar found itself with more returns of unsold copies from retailers than it had expected.

Other studios, including DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc., found a similar change in the DVD market this year as retail shelves became overloaded with offerings.

Pixar's next film, "Cars," is due out next June. It will be the last film released under a distribution and co-financing partnership with Disney under which Disney owns half of the films Pixar produces.

"I think it will be either a triumphant cap on a successful relationship with Disney or the huge beginning of a bountiful new chapter in our relationship with them," Jobs said.

Pixar has said that it would like to own 100 percent of its films in the future. The company has amassed cash of more than $1 billion as it prepares to fully finance its own films.

For the first nine months of the year, Pixar reported net income of $122 million, or 99 cents per share, compared with $86.5 million, or 73 cents per share in the same period last year.

Revenue for the first nine months was $233.5 million compared with $165 million in the same period last year.

 

[Above_the_Rim]

Jarhead won Monday with $1,964,965 to CL's $1,916,322

I just thought that was interesting.

yeah but it was pretty close, Mondays usually arent the best of days for family movies, tuesdays get bigger. but it would be pretty interesting if Jarhead won the week over CL. and even moreso if CL didn't make 10 million for this week. Saw made 10 million last week, and then made just about 16 million for the weekend. If the same trend happened to CL, it woudl be a big drop for the film compared to it's previous week (CL has to contend with Zathura)

 

[crusader]

Trying to copy the Pixar "formula" is a futile endeavor unless you first realize that storytelling must be the single most important element. And once you've realized that, and made a committment to execute it, AND found the right people to execute it, then you'd realize you had your "formula".

What? You're way too hung up on semantics. There's one parallel in this industry for the masses. Walt utilized it first. Lasseter also incorporated it at Pixar. It's the importance of time dedicated to the film in all respects.

It's not Pixar's patent. It's one key ingredient in their product. When I mentioned the word it was followed by "ergo Disney" to give credit where it belonged - to Walt Disney Pictures, first and foremost.

You're trying to draw a correlation that does not exist.

How do you know? Where's tangible evidence in support against my theory?

Greed in the form of sustainable predictable profits lead to formulaic production which reduced the "Art" involved. And all films have deadlines. Often they're missed, but they still try as much as possible to stick to them.

Well said. I'd only add that these deadlines have crippled the industry and compromised the art.

 

[raidermatt]

What? You're way too hung up on semantics. There's one parallel in this industry for the masses. Walt utilized it first. Lasseter also incorporated it at Pixar. It's the importance of time dedicated to the film in all respects.

No, time is merely one factor. Its a tool to be used like many others.

It's not Pixar's patent. It's one key ingredient in their product. When I mentioned the word it was followed by "ergo Disney" to give credit where it belonged - to Walt Disney Pictures, first and foremost.

I never said they created it. I just used them as an example because they are the poster child for it, while the Walt Disney Pictures of today is the case study for how to screw up a good thing.

How do you know? Where's tangible evidence in support against my theory?

Usually, its the espouser of the theory that provides evidence. That said, do I really need to list all the movies that have had their production schedules delayed and turned out to be disasters, inlcuding those from Disney Animation?

Remember, I'm not saying that these delays automatically mean each will be a flop. Only that you certainly can't use delays as evidence of a return to quality.

Well said. I'd only add that these deadlines have crippled the industry and compromised the art.

I can agree to a certain extent, though I see this as more of a symptom as opposed to anything resembling the root of the problem. While it makes things more difficult, it seems the truly talented and dedicated find a way to deal with it.

 

[YoHo]

How do you know? Where's tangible evidence in support against my theory?



Well said. I'd only add that these deadlines have crippled the industry and compromised the art.

1: Last time I checked, it's the person putting the theorm out that must supply evidence. You have not done so, therefore your theory is baseless and should not be considered.

2: Well then film has pretty much always been a crippled artform since it's been a business with deadlines for probably close to 100 years.

 

[SoCalKDG]

Jarhead won Monday with $1,964,965 to CL's $1,916,322

I just thought that was interesting.

Tuesday was 2.2 MIL for CL, 1.8 MIL for Jarhead. Obviously with the movie being 75% families, Monday to Thursday is going to be down for CL. I think CL will beat Zathura 25MIL to 20MIL this coming weekend.

Jim Hill is reporting that the reason Disney's future movies are being moved back is due to the imminent agreement between Pixar and Disney and is being done per a requirement by Pixar.

 

[All Aboard]

Jim Hill is reporting that the reason Disney's future movies are being moved back is due to the imminent agreement between Pixar and Disney and is being done per a requirement by Pixar.

Um, if true, this further supports my position that CL's box office results has done little to nothing in favor of Disney's negotiating position with Pixar. Hill reports that Pixar will get "first dibs" on all release dates and that Disney is pushing theirs back to let Pixar get their choice of dates.

 

[Peter Pirate]

Couldn't that just be a negotiation tactic?

 

[Another Voice]

Couldn't that just be a negotiation tactic?

It's unlikely for films that are already into pre-production & production. It tends to greatly increase costs since there are already people working on the film. If you delay a film by one year or two you either have them sitting around working slower, so they get more money in when the film is completed, or you could fire everyone and then have to pay those people more money when you want them to come back (if they come back, most people will have found other jobs - plus if you hire new staff you'll need to start all over again so the work matches) or you could finish the movie now have it sit on the shelf for months on end (which means you've just sunk $100 million of capital that isn't getting you a dime, but that could be earning interest in the bank).

Some people are trying to spin the delay and/or potential cancellations as a "goodwill" gesture to Pixar. It's something about clearing the slate so that Pixar can set its own release schedules.

This is Hollywood. No one give "goodwill gestures". If they do, its in the form of large amounts of cash.

There has been a thread throughout Disney management for more than a decade now - animation ain't worth it. Disney thinks it can make more money by using its capital elsewhere. But what's worse, Disney has lost its confidence that they can make a good animated movie any more. The critical and unimpressive box office (yes, opening a tiny bit better than the lowered expecations you've spun to Wall Street is still open low against what the company had to acheive) hasn't helped matters.

 

[RyMickey]

From BoxOfficeProphets.com:
Chicken Little increased $700k with $11.4 million [on Friday]. Even factoring in the holiday [Veteran's Day], this is jaw-dropping in the current box office climate. Films just don't increase in week two any more, particularly ones that were huge on opening weekend. Disney just earned major bragging rights in their on-going semi-polite war with DreamWorks (and Pixar).

Personally, I'm shocked. Who woulda thunk this flick would be this big? Of course, Harry Potter looms next week.