Chances of future cruises

[randumb0]

Where did you see that?

They are friends with a Disney bus driver

 

[T & R]

I have a cruise in October and know its not going. CDC is expected to cancel cruises til 2022.

If that were true then MW would be getting a lot of their new ship builds canceled. Why pay for a new ship build when you would be able to buy existing ships for pennies on the dollar from the liquidation of other bankrupt cruise lines? Norwegian, Carnival and Royal Caribbean are the ones I do not see making it through another 18 months worth of ban. Based on last quarter and public statements made by the companies, amount of existing debt they already had, amount of new debt they are taking and the amount of cash they are burning through per month, I do not see how these companies could last another 12 months, yet alone another 18 months if ban is until 2022.

 

[cedricandsophie]

I just will not believe that cruises will be cancelled through 2022. There is no way most cruise lines would survive. We have an October cruise on the fantasy. It might cancel although I’d be happy just to have all days at sea. And we are booked on the may 2021 transatlantic Cruise.

 

[lorimay]

No one knows what tomorrow brings, but I'm pretty sure there will be a vaccine in place way before 2022.

 

[T & R]

I do not believe the chances on future cruises will be dependent on a Covid vaccine. Covid-19 is related to SARS and is actually caused by SARS-CoV-2. If you look at the vaccines that were developed for SARS they improved survival but didn't prevent being infected by SARS, caused complications including lung damage and people aged 50 yrs or older didn't respond as well to the vaccines as well as younger people. In addition any vaccine that is developed will need to be rushed to the market thus limiting the amount of time for trials and testing. Would you want to stick something in you or your child's body that was rushed through clinical trials? The Cutter Incident comes to mind or Thalidomide babies.

So in conclusion, a vaccine may not be the end all cure all. The chances of future cruising may just be dependent on people's ability to accept that Covid may just have to be one of many, many diseases that we have no vaccine for. Still waiting on the Zika vaccine.

 

[Snowwhyt]

I think the marketing department will be how we know that the restart is actually happening. I would say no less than two months before they really believe a cruise would continue.

 

[randumb0]

@T & R It is hard to compare the effectiveness of one vaccine be another because the money dried up for Covid 1 vaccine when the the threat died. The demand for innovation was not there and so we're the vaccine candidates. With Covid 2 there are over 150 candidates. That is a big deal even if they are only 30% effective.

Linking this back to cruising, you are right in the fact that even with a vaccine a positive test is inevitable

 

[T & R]

It is hard to compare the effectiveness of one vaccine be another because the money dried up for Covid 1 vaccine when the the threat died. The demand for innovation was not there and so we're the vaccine candidates. With Covid 2 there are over 150 candidates. That is a big deal even if they are only 30% effective.

Linking this back to cruising, you are right in the fact that even with a vaccine a positive test is inevitable

A few more things that concern me is that many young women taking a new vaccine may not know the effects on a fetus. With trials and testing it would take up to a year or more after birth to know what effects it would have on a fetus. Also, where do you find volunteers for that study? Who would say, yes I would like to see what effects this untested substance has on my unborn child? This would be relevant to many young women because they may take the vaccine while unknowingly being pregnant. So a real vaccine for women may not be available for years.

Also the only thing I can think of to compare this situation to is the Spanish Flu pandemic around 1918. That thing took 3 yrs to die out after several up and down flare ups and waves.

So with the above in mind, if we put our hopes on resuming cruising in a vaccine, may be years till we cruise if people determine that a vaccine is required prior to resuming cruising.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

It might cancel although I’d be happy just to have all days at sea.

Cruises to nowhere are illegal under US maritime law.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

Cruises to nowhere are illegal under US maritime law.

No. Cruises to nowhere are legal, under the PVSA. What's not legal, is a cruise, with no foreign port stops, where the crew do not have the proper visa to work in the US (which is what a cruise to nowhere is, since it only touches land in the US).

A more specific explanation I found on another site:
The PVSA was revised a few years back to allow cruises to nowhere, and they are still legal under the PVSA. What has changed is that CBP has ruled that while crew on foreign flag cruise ships that call in US ports need a crew visa (C1/D1 depending on whether they are joining/leaving in the US or not), crew on a foreign flag vessel doing cruises to nowhere would need a H1-B work visa. The H1 work visa is more difficult to obtain, costs more, and has more financial and legal responsibilities placed on the "sponsor" (cruise line). The cost for a cruise line to get these visas for a thousand crew for one or two voyages (sometimes separated by months) would not be cost effective.

 

[CM Dad]

I honestly don't think they will sail but a little part of my brain says pay it off and if they cancel and offer that FCC is could really help with a Greece cruise in the future. Oh what to do, what to do.

My wife and I are on the EBPC cruise in November as well, and are in the age group that is vulnerable. PIF date is early July, but I went ahead and paid the balance already. It's not any additional money out-of-pocket, since I already had enough discounted Disney gift cards for the payment. Disney already has my money. If that one gets cancelled, we have two more booked next year that I can move the FCC to. A 7 night Fantasy in January that we booked because we had a placeholder that was going to expire, and the EBTA in May.

 

[DisneYE]

So with the above in mind, if we put our hopes on resuming cruising in a vaccine, may be years till we cruise if people determine that a vaccine is required prior to resuming cruising.

Correct. Unless its for malaria, I can't see how vaccines can be 100% effective to allow for international travel.
I've had flu vaccines for years and still gotten sick. Flu/sars vaccines are limited in their effectiveness.

Instead, the key word imo is *treatment*
For flu-like symptoms there are different types of treatments like Tamiflu/antibiotics/antivirals that they give you and you have a good chance of getting better.
Not the case for Covid19.

Until there's an effective treatment for it, the virus will be with us for a while.
I won't be 100% comfortable traveling/cruising until then.
Still, I have a couple of cruises booked for summer 2021 and I'm hoping for the best.

 

[T & R]

Still, I have a couple of cruises booked for summer 2021 and I'm hoping for the best.

Yes, that's right! Let's do this. Release the cruise ships!

 

[mmouse37]

My wife and I are on the EBPC cruise in November as well, and are in the age group that is vulnerable. PIF date is early July, but I went ahead and paid the balance already. It's not any additional money out-of-pocket, since I already had enough discounted Disney gift cards for the payment. Disney already has my money. If that one gets cancelled, we have two more booked next year that I can move the FCC to. A 7 night Fantasy in January that we booked because we had a placeholder that was going to expire, and the EBTA in May.

Well we discussed it with our friends over the weekend and decided to just cancel. Too many what ifs for us at this time. We decided we would rather just get our deposit back and possibly book something early next year if cruise restrictions open up a bit.

Have a great cruise (if it sails).

MJ