CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[Jonfw2]

My cousin who was very hesitant about getting the vaccine ended up getting it a week and half ago because she was told that she will not have to wear a mask anymore at her favorite restaurant or in her summer home community in Flagstaff, AZ. This is the way to get people vaccinated. My 79 year old father went to dinner with friends who have literally not left their house in over a year since they are both fully vaccinated. Israel's numbers are phenomenal. This is the way forward people.

Israel has gone from 8,500 cases a day to 150.

 

[RamblingMad]

Michigan's numbers appear to be dropping again.

That’s good news. I have some family there.

 

[Colleen27]

Depends on where you are in the north. You don't get much further north than MN and MI, both of which have had very high case counts in the last couple weeks.

It really seems to be those places in the upper midwest that had more draconian lockdowns are now seeing more cases than those that didn't. Even in WI, with numbers a third of MN and a large percentage of cases are in the two counties that have put the most onerous restrictions on it's citizens, Dane and Milwaukee.

Yeah, but the seasonality DVCgirl is talking about doesn't start to help us until a little further into the spring - last spring, cases dropped like a rock once it got warm enough for restaurants to open their patios and people to move their private gatherings from the living room to the backyard, which happens right about now. Not weeks ago, when cases in MI and MN started ramping up. If this year follows that pattern, and I don't see any reason why it wouldn't (and would suggest that we're starting to see signs that it already is, in Michigan at least), cases are going to drop "on their own" just as vaccines are becoming truly accessible to everyone.

Here in Michigan, the severity of this last (hopefully) gasp of the pandemic might be enough to keep people motivated to get vaccinated, but in other northern states that didn't see a huge March resurgence, there's going to be a large degree of "out of sight, out of mind" happening that could leave some states/cities/regions vulnerable to a fall surge when the good-weather effect is once again removed.

 

[godisney14]

Hoping that it continues to rise, but think we're going to start to see demand drop soon.

For months now, I’ve been predicting that national demand will drop in May.

 

[Colleen27]

Michigan's numbers appear to be dropping again.

Tomorrow's numbers will be the test, I think. Last week, Sat & Mon numbers looked good. State doesn't report on Sun. Then the Tuesday count was the second-highest of the pandemic so far... for a minute, anyway, until Friday's total bumped it down to third.

Our positivity percentage is dropping, though, which is a good sign that cases might soon follow. But on the other hand, most of the schools that paused in-person instruction last month go back to class today, so if schools are in fact driving community spread, that might mean they stay high a while longer or drop but quickly rebound.

 

[Jonfw2]

Tomorrow's numbers will be the test, I think. Last week, Sat & Mon numbers looked good. State doesn't report on Sun. Then the Tuesday count was the second-highest of the pandemic so far... for a minute, anyway, until Friday's total bumped it down to third.

Our positivity percentage is dropping, though, which is a good sign that cases might soon follow. But on the other hand, most of the schools that paused in-person instruction last month go back to class today, so if schools are in fact driving community spread, that might mean they stay high a while longer or drop but quickly rebound.

Good points, all. And the biggest X factor is the vaccination rate. I've see recently that some minority celebrities are doing some public service outreach about getting vaccinated so hopefully, that will help in cities like Detroit.

 

[godisney14]

Depends on where you are in the north. You don't get much further north than MN and MI, both of which have had very high case counts in the last couple weeks.

It really seems to be those places in the upper midwest that had more draconian lockdowns are now seeing more cases than those that didn't. Even in WI, with numbers a third of MN and a large percentage of cases are in the two counties that have put the most onerous restrictions on it's citizens, Dane and Milwaukee.

Michigan started opening back up March 5.

Michigan’s recent wave started right about that time.

 

[Jonfw2]

Michigan started opening back up March 5.

Michigan’s recent wave started right about that time.

Very true. But other states that reopened haven't seen anything like that at all.

 

[Colleen27]

Michigan started opening back up March 5.

Michigan’s recent wave started right about that time.

I don't know where you got that date from but it is way off. Our "pause" due to the fall surge was lifted in pieces, starting with schools resuming as scheduled in early Jan. (some with the first week remote to allow quarantine after holidays/travel). Restaurants and most indoor entertainment venues reopened Feb. 1, the latter with food & drink restrictions in the first couple of weeks that were lifted mid-month. Unfortunately, our first B117 variant cases were also identified during the first week of Feb.

 

[RamblingMad]

Very true. But other states that reopened haven't seen anything like that at all.

Which is weird. I wonder if it has anything to do with their proximity to Canada. Or is it a compliance issue.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Depends on where you are in the north. You don't get much further north than MN and MI, both of which have had very high case counts in the last couple weeks.

It really seems to be those places in the upper midwest that had more draconian lockdowns are now seeing more cases than those that didn't. Even in WI, with numbers a third of MN and a large percentage of cases are in the two counties that have put the most onerous restrictions on it's citizens, Dane and Milwaukee.

Well first of all you can't blame Michigan's recent surge on "draconian lock downs" because they weren't in fact on one, still aren't and have announced that they don't plan to in the near future.

Secondly.
Cases per million.

North Dakota 138,773
South Dakota 136, 839
Iowa 123,391
Indiana 105,176
Illinois 102,767
Wisconsin 101,477
Minnesota 98,883
National average. 97,917
Ohio 90,099
Michigan 87,485.

Yup. Michigan is totally lousy. It's only lowest in the entire upper midwest and despite a recent surge now, still has better numbers than the national average and better numbers than the rest of the upper midwest.

Now let's take a look at Wisconsin's county numbers. They report in cases per 100k. The numbers per million would be different but the order of who is worst vs who is best would be unchanged.
You mentioned Dane. They are at 8,232 per 100,000. The state as a whole reports 10,213. So Dane is actually well under the state average. Milwaukee County is at 10,956 which is over the state average. But it's far from the worst. There are 17 counties over 11,000.

 

[DLgal]

Israel has gone from 8,500 cases a day to 150.

Israel also has vaccine/prior infection passports and they are the key to people being able to do stuff that we are doing here without them, namely eating in restaurants, going to cinemas, cafes, swimming pools, sports stadiums, etc. If you can't show proof of vaccine in Israel, no fun for you!

Without something similar, the US will never see numbers that low. And I'm not advocating either way, but it is important to put those numbers into context.

 

[TwoMisfits]

Israel also has vaccine/prior infection passports and they are the key to people being able to do stuff that we are doing here without them, namely eating in restaurants, going to cinemas, cafes, swimming pools, sports stadiums, etc. If you can't show proof of vaccine in Israel, no fun for you!

Without something similar, the US will never see numbers that low. And I'm not advocating either way, but it is important to put those numbers into context.

I'm a little more hopeful than you. I think we'll get to a really high vaccination rate, and won't need anything like that to have the herd immunity we need to keep everything low. I just look at the stats, knowing we're at almost 50% of adults with at least one vaccine dose, and no slow downs in many places, and I think we've got what it takes to get us over the line. Stay positive, hear people out, and give them time to see great data and personal vaccine stories in their circles, and you may be surprised how many more keep stepping up and get us over this line...

 

[Colleen27]

Well first of all you can't blame Michigan's recent surge on "draconian lock downs" because they weren't in fact on one, still aren't and have announced that they don't plan to in the near future.

Secondly.
Cases per million.

North Dakota 138,773
South Dakota 136, 839
Iowa 123,391
Indiana 105,176
Illinois 102,767
Wisconsin 101,477
Minnesota 98,883
National average. 97,917
Ohio 90,099
Michigan 87,485.

Yup. Michigan is totally lousy. It's only lowest in the entire upper midwest and despite a recent surge now, still has better numbers than the national average and better numbers than the rest of the upper midwest.

Yep. I'll admit, I was one of the first to complain about some details of how our original lockdown was handled, specifically the early ban on curbside/contactless service from small and non-essential retailers... and then in my frustration, I rented a place up north for the second half of April and into May to escape the cabin fever of looking at but not being able to do much with my gardens, and my daughters and I spent weeks hiking and barbequing between their school Zoom meetings. We even managed to get take out a couple of times, though not often since the house was about 15 miles from the nearest town. Then we spent a big chunk of the summer in state parks and national forests, even having the occasional indoor dining experience on lousy days (or, in the case of the Grand Hotel on Mackinac, just because we wanted to). The fall/winter lockdown was tougher, since it lined up both with awful weather for outdoor anything and with the holiday season. Retail wasn't closed that time, but shopping is a chore when you live an hour from the mall and can't stop to eat while you run errands! Oh, and other than three days of remote learning at the end of last month, my kid has been in school all year and had a semi-normal volleyball season in the fall. Right now, she's in rehearsals for our school's spring play, though we did move it to an outdoor stage so we don't have to limit tickets as tightly. But all along, there's been a perception that we're more locked down than we really were.... maybe because someone who used to have a very high profile Twitter account was prone to doing stupid things like demanding we reopen schools weeks after they had already resumed or suggesting we needed to be "freed" when almost everything was open.

Before this surge, Michigan was 44th in cumulative infections recorded with around 68K per million. At worst, we're "catching up" with the rest of the country now, though as those figures above show, we've got a ways to go before we are anywhere near the case rates of the states that did little or nothing to contain the virus.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

My second dose of Pfizer was on Friday morning, I'll spare everyone the details here (the have you gotten a covid vaccine thread is where I put my experience) but it was a rough weekend. Still not back to 100% but much better than I was. Main issue right now is fatigue and a swollen lymph node under my arm.

As far as my county is going they have advised they are considering moving away from mass vaccination and going to slow and steady route of more doctor's offices (which have been incorporated into the mix recently). They haven't made the decision quite yet and are watching closely the ratio or appointments made available to appointments taken for their events. This wouldn't impact mass vaccinations that hospitals/health systems choose to do (which tend to get their doses from the county) like the health system where we got our shots both of which were mass vaccinations just the county-run one that was relocated to a warehouse (and costs something like $33,000 a month to rent the space).

 

[mom2rtk]

My second dose of Pfizer was on Friday morning, I'll spare everyone the details here (the have you gotten a covid vaccine thread is where I put my experience) but it was a rough weekend. Still not back to 100% but much better than I was. Main issue right now is fatigue and a swollen lymph node under my arm.

As far as my county is going they have advised they are considering moving away from mass vaccination and going to slow and steady route of more doctor's offices (which have been incorporated into the mix recently). They haven't made the decision quite yet and are watching closely the ratio or appointments made available to appointments taken for their events. This wouldn't impact mass vaccinations that hospitals/health systems choose to do (which tend to get their doses from the county) like the health system where we got our shots both of which were mass vaccinations just the county-run one that was relocated to a warehouse (and costs something like $33,000 a month to operate).

 

[Foxhound3857]

According to the data, just over 25% of the US population is fully vaccinated now. How much of the population do you think needs to be vaccinated before the CDC relaxes on the Mask mandate and businesses won't feel the need to enforce them?

I've heard 70-85% as a general range.

 

[mom2rtk]

According to the data, just over 25% of the US population is fully vaccinated now. How much of the population do you think needs to be vaccinated before the CDC relaxes on the Mask mandate and businesses won't feel the need to enforce them?

I've heard 70-85% as a general range.

We may never get to 70%.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Yeah, but the seasonality DVCgirl is talking about doesn't start to help us until a little further into the spring - last spring, cases dropped like a rock once it got warm enough for restaurants to open their patios and people to move their private gatherings from the living room to the backyard, which happens right about now. Not weeks ago, when cases in MI and MN started ramping up. If this year follows that pattern, and I don't see any reason why it wouldn't (and would suggest that we're starting to see signs that it already is, in Michigan at least), cases are going to drop "on their own" just as vaccines are becoming truly accessible to everyone.

Here in Michigan, the severity of this last (hopefully) gasp of the pandemic might be enough to keep people motivated to get vaccinated, but in other northern states that didn't see a huge March resurgence, there's going to be a large degree of "out of sight, out of mind" happening that could leave some states/cities/regions vulnerable to a fall surge when the good-weather effect is once again removed.

Shutting up does not cure COVID, it just prolongs it until people start to being people again. Do not be so negative. Vaccines are now available, so the solution is to get vaccinated. Let us all stop scolding people for wanting to live again. Being shut in ones house 24/7 is not living. If someone gets COVID who is not vaccinated that is there own fault and not those who did get vaccinated. What is that quote: "You're either busy living or busy dying" (from Shawshank Redemption).

 

[Foxhound3857]

We may never get to 70%.

It depends on whether or not we can convince the people adamantly against being vaccinated to change their minds. Roughly 3.2 million doses are being administered a day, with two doses required to fully vaccinate one person (assuming only Phizer and Moderna here, not J&J), and our total population is around 310 million. That's roughly 620 million doses required to vaccinate 100% of the U.S population. So if you do the math, that's about a 0.5% increase in the total population being fully vaccinated each day. Assuming that stays consistent, that means we could potentially hit 70% by the middle of July and 85% by August.

Of course it's highly unlikely that these numbers will stay consistent, they will likely taper off at some point, but this is what the math looks like on paper.