CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[Ariel484]

Did the donation center ever test titer value? Or, are they just conducting a simple antibody test?

The former would be way more informative.

I don't know, he just told me he still has antibodies.

 

[Jonfw2]

All data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

After a 2-3 day wobble uptick (likely caused by Texas lack of reporting during snowstorm) we've seen four days in a row below the previous week's #s, and see the 7 day moving average hit it's lowest # since Mid-October. Today's cases are 15% lower than last Sunday's, progress is clear and exciting.

7 Day Moving Avg: 68,963

Cases on Sundays:
1/10: 221,000
1/17: 177,000
1/24: 143,000
1/31: 111,000
2/7: 91,000
2/14: 66,000
2/21: 58,000
2/28: 49,000

Jon, where do you get US hospitalization #s?

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

The exciting thing about the J&J shot is whatever amount your state gets that is how many people are vaccinated. No worries about needing to keep some in reserve so for Missouri you will have another 50,000 people vaccinated. Good plan to allow the local providers to decide who should receive the shot and since it does not need to be kept at the low temperature there should be no waste.

We'll see if that works out better. Right now KC and STL are constantly being talked about for being vaccine deserts and a lot of heat for that, the governor relented and pushed teachers up higher, etc. The teacher thing has been a sore spot in MO and doesn't help that in my state the governor pushed extra doses to the counties earmarked for teachers. But I have no idea who will end up more getting J&J will be interesting seeing the stats.

 

[mrs. magoo]

We'll see if that works out better. Right now KC and STL are constantly being talked about for being vaccine deserts and a lot of heat for that, the governor relented and pushed teachers up higher, etc. The teacher thing has been a sore spot in MO and doesn't help that in my state the governor pushed extra doses to the counties earmarked for teachers. But I have no idea who will end up more getting J&J will be interesting seeing the stats.

Here in NY teachers have been eligible since January 11th but many are sill trying to get appointments. My hope is the J&J will be used in the rural areas or for college kids living in dorms. I think it would go a far way to get college kids vaccinated to help stop the outbreaks. My county has 5 colleges in it and 2 of them are larger universities while the other 3 are smaller but when the kids return to campus or to their off campus housing our number of cases always increases.

 

[Jonfw2]

Here in NY teachers have been eligible since January 11th but many are sill trying to get appointments. My hope is the J&J will be used in the rural areas or for college kids living in dorms. I think it would go a far way to get college kids vaccinated to help stop the outbreaks. My county has 5 colleges in it and 2 of them are larger universities while the other 3 are smaller but when the kids return to campus or to their off campus housing our number of cases always increases.

Scott Gottleib reiterated this morning that by April, everyone who wants to get vaccinated will be able to.

 

[TLSnell1981]

Shepardsville, Ky is expecting the first shipment of J&J vax this week. Expecting jabs to really pickup.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Here in NY teachers have been eligible since January 11th but many are sill trying to get appointments. My hope is the J&J will be used in the rural areas or for college kids living in dorms. I think it would go a far way to get college kids vaccinated to help stop the outbreaks. My county has 5 colleges in it and 2 of them are larger universities while the other 3 are smaller but when the kids return to campus or to their off campus housing our number of cases always increases.

I'd say at least on the KS side teachers are chugging along I'm sure not as fast as the teachers want but with these extra doses being sent just for them that should help. I'm sure it's a bit like your area where many are still waiting for appointments. On the MO side the issue was there was resistance from the governor to push them up, the teachers really wanted it, KS started doing teachers then announced they would send extra doses then knowing that all other states that border them also were vaccinating teachers (save for the OK at least as of 2 weeks ago when the most recent news story talked about teachers) it just put a lot more heat on it.

Both MO and KS have prioritized rural parts so much already well over the more populated areas so that's where it might get dicey; it's been quite heavily covered in the news about it. From an article in mid-Feb. "An analysis of state data (KS) shows that larger counties tend to receive fewer doses per 1,000 residents than less populated rural counties." For example the 2nd week of Feb. this was in a local news story for my area: "Johnson County, the largest county in Kansas, received the lowest number of Covid vaccine doses per capita in the state’s weekly shipment last week. Johnson County got 5,850 doses, according to KDHE data, and has 602,000 residents. That works out to 9.71 residents per 1,000 receiving a dose. By comparison, Pawnee County, with 6,629 residents, got 500 doses, or 75.43 doses per 1,000 residents." And now with them sending Moderna to rural areas pulling the supply from our area and leaving Pfizer as our only option UNLESS J&J comes.. The thing that will help offset some of that is increased amount of doses being sent to our state. From the MO side that same article said "areas with limited-to-no access to the vaccine — were expanding in the state’s biggest cities despite shrinking for the rest of the state."

Back on the MO side KCMO has a homeless population that has been getting a LOT of attention lately for human rights although that may fall out of the news as the weather warms up because it was mainly spurned recently by a death of a homeless person due to exposure. But Universities are a good fit as well. My alma mater (located in KS not MO) announced tentative plans to be in-person fully (as opposed to a mixture of in-person and online courses) in the Fall so there's def. a consideration there however it's only March now so there's several months from the intense pressure for college kids to get it (taking out summer school) but yeah.

1 shot is advantageous for several groups IMO but I'll be honest if they push too much to the rural parts regardless of appropriateness of it being a 1 shot......it's not going to go over well unless the suburban and urban parts get enough where that it less noticable.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Expecting jabs to really pickup.

Every time I see "jab" I can't help but think of how the UK and such calls it that lol. Like before I would just say shot but I kept seeing jab so much when looking at comments from other posters from around the world or news articles they shared and now I catch myself saying jab instead of shot

 

[mrs. magoo]

Both MO and KS have prioritized rural parts so much already well over the more populated areas so that's where it might get dicey; it's been quite heavily covered in the news about it. From an article in mid-Feb. "An analysis of state data (KS) shows that larger counties tend to receive fewer doses per 1,000 residents than less populated rural counties." For example the 2nd week of Feb. this was in a local news story for my area: "Johnson County, the largest county in Kansas, received the lowest number of Covid vaccine doses per capita in the state’s weekly shipment last week. Johnson County got 5,850 doses, according to KDHE data, and has 602,000 residents. That works out to 9.71 residents per 1,000 receiving a dose. By comparison, Pawnee County, with 6,629 residents, got 500 doses, or 75.43 doses per 1,000 residents." And now with them sending Moderna to rural areas pulling the supply from our area and leaving Pfizer as our only option UNLESS J&J comes.. The thing that will help offset some of that is increased amount of doses being sent to our state. From the MO side that same article said "areas with limited-to-no access to the vaccine — were expanding in the state’s biggest cities despite shrinking for the rest of the state."

I find this part of your reply very interesting. Here in Western NY the rural areas have not had the number of doses as the cities have. In fact, my city has a mass vaccination clinic that for the past week only has allowed people in underserved zip codes to make appointments to begin vaccination on the 3rd. The problem with this is that many people do not know how to make these appointments or do not have the technology to actually schedule them on line. They can call but the wait time has been upwards of 45 minutes. I have helped my students make appointments for their grandparents and in some cases parents. This is the problem the mayor loves to say stuff but then you need to have people in the community helping people to sign up for the appointments. I hope that the site is truly able to give the 1000 shots a day for the next month since that will mean an additional 30,000 people vaccinated in area.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Here in Western NY the rural areas have not had the number of doses as the cities have. In fact, my city has a mass vaccination clinic that for the past week only has allowed people in underserved zip codes to make appointments to begin vaccination on the 3rd.

I really haven't been mad about the rural parts getting it because they are more resistant to restrictions, mask wearing, etc and there are valid points for getting them vaccinated quickly but at some point it starts getting more frustrating when it's too unequal. However, my area has started getting more doses, more than the MO side of the KC metro so I can't complain as much as Missourians can on that TBH but it's still clear that we're lagging behind our rural counterparts. On the KCMO side they've been discussing that even when they've gotten vaccine opportunities there's racial inequalities with the vast majority of the zip codes with higher vaccination rates being predominately white. They are trying to target that more and announced yesterday they are getting 3,500 individuals in zip codes identified as having the lowest life expectancy. I'm guessing the racial inequalities are a problem elsewhere as well throughout the U.S.

Eventually they will run out of people in rural counties to vaccinate so I suppose that's the glass half full outlook. A lot IMO really just comes down to what vaccines were out first. I believe if J&J came out first it would have been great for rural parts for multiple reasons but just being able to get a 1 and done without temperature issues would have been a huge bonus for them there. It would have freed up Pfizer more and at least a bit of Moderna more both for the more populated areas. It'll get better as time goes on that I'm sure about

The problem with this is that many people do not know how to make these appointments or do not have the technology to actually schedule them on line. They can call but the wait time has been upwards of 45 minutes. I have helped my students make appointments for their grandparents and in some cases parents. This is the problem the mayor loves to say stuff but then you need to have people in the community helping people to sign up for the appointments.

This is very much the same in our area. I think a lot of areas too where it's just how to balance who is getting the vaccine and the technological demands.

My husband and I just made appointments online for covid tests this week (as we are going out of town next week and my husband just got back from out of town and is working from home this week) and it was super easy for us but I know that the process could def. be frustrating for others not as tech savvy from how to select the location, to the multiple questions you have to go through (like if you're experiencing symptoms, where have you been in the last 14 days, do you have any underlying health conditions, etc) and one of the very first steps is you enter your cell phone number and it sends you a code you have to input. Then when you complete your appointment scheduling you get a QR code through a text and they use that QR code to scan when you go for your appointment.

Now the site we chose is one that you can walk up or drive up to without an appointment (they just strongly suggest an appointment) but still. Last year was the first time either my mom or my mother-in-law had even tried to scan QR codes at restaurants so they don't have much experience with that and they are in their 60s. I can imagine how that might be for someone even older or less tech savvy (especially the cell phone part).

I hope that the site is truly able to give the 1000 shots a day for the next month since that will mean an additional 30,000 people vaccinated in area.

I hope so too for that area! With J&J right now at least being only 1 dose the way we talk about number of people vaccinated will be so different. No math needed

 

[Jonfw2]

February 21st, 2020 was the day the stock market realized that Covid was going to be a legitimate issue- based on the news coming out of Italy, the Dow dropped over 1,000 points that day for the first time (but not the last) during this crisis.

Today, March 1, 2021 is the day the market realized that Covid is going to be successfully dealt with. The Dow is currently up 700 points on the news of JNJ's vaccine approval. Now, there was no doubt this was coming, so why would the market react so positively? Because people are figuring out what it all means- combine the falling numbers, the rapid increase in vaccinations, the coming warmer weather and even the pessimists are getting optimistic.

 

[DLgal]

Scott Gottleib reiterated this morning that by April, everyone who wants to get vaccinated will be able to.

I have a very hard time believing this. I live in a state where so far, only 1 in 7 residents has been vaccinated. I do not see a scenario where we have everyone who wants it vaccinated by April. Our state dashboard is currently targeting to have enough supplies "by summer 2021." We are still only on Tier 1B. They haven't even decided allocation criteria beyond Tier 1C.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I have a very hard time believing this. I live in a state where so far, only 1 in 7 residents has been vaccinated. I do not see a scenario where we have everyone who wants it vaccinated by April. Our state dashboard is currently targeting to have enough supplies "by summer 2021." We are still only on Tier 1B. They haven't even decided allocation criteria beyond Tier 1C.

Honestly I'm with you on that. How does my state go from 12.7% of people vaccinated to allowing any and all get it if they want to in a month (or almost 2 months if you count end of April as opposed to beginning of April). I realize that's two different metrics but the base is will supply be that large in my state that soon to rapidly increase the opportunities is kinda questionable in my mind even with J&J joining in.

I'll try to stay optimistic about this but it's one thing to talk about how many doses the U.S. is getting, it's another thing to actually consider where the doses are going, how many each state is getting, how many people in a given state actually want the vaccine, getting it to each community and what type of vaccine it is (meaning how many doses), etc.

The numbers I really really really want to know soon-ish is the percentage of people eligible (as in 16 and up or 18 and up) and how many people have actually chosen to get it in each state. It will paint a very different picture depending on that. One state might be able to say "anyone who wants it come and get it" but may not have as many people taking them up on that offer as say another state that isn't able to say "anyone who wants it come and get it" and is struggling with more people wanting it than can get it.

 

[Jonfw2]

I have a very hard time believing this. I live in a state where so far, only 1 in 7 residents has been vaccinated. I do not see a scenario where we have everyone who wants it vaccinated by April. Our state dashboard is currently targeting to have enough supplies "by summer 2021." We are still only on Tier 1B. They haven't even decided allocation criteria beyond Tier 1C.

Okay.

 

[DLgal]

Honestly I'm with you on that. How does my state go from 12.7% of people vaccinated to allowing any and all get it if they want to in a month (or almost 2 months if you count end of April as opposed to beginning of April). I realize that's two different metrics but the base is will supply be that large in my state that soon to rapidly increase the opportunities is kinda questionable in my mind even with J&J joining in.

I'll try to stay optimistic about this but it's one thing to talk about how many doses the U.S. is getting, it's another thing to actually consider where the doses are going, how many each state is getting, how many people in a given state actually want the vaccine, getting it to each community and what type of vaccine it is (meaning how many doses), etc.

The numbers I really really really want to know soon-ish is the percentage of people eligible (as in 16 and up or 18 and up) and how many people have actually chosen to get it in each state. It will paint a very different picture depending on that. One state might be able to say "anyone who wants it come and get it" but may not have as many people taking them up on that offer as say another state that isn't able to say "anyone who wants it come and get it" and is struggling with more people wanting it than can get it.

Exactly. The distribution is where the holdup is.

I cannot tell you how frustrated I am to see CA counties Twitter accounts announcing "we have plenty of vaccine appointments available!" "No wait for vaccines today, just come down with an ID and proof of eligiblity!" All while sharing photos of empty vaccine centers.

This should NOT be happening. Every single vaccine appointment should be booked for every single day going forward. When you get to the point where you are putting out calls on social media basically begging people to come get vaccinated, you're doing it wrong. Move to the next group! Our state has made it SO hard for counties to use their judgment, and by not even defining the "next tier group", counties cannot give vaccines outside the narrowly defined groups that have been authorized by the state. They have to sit there and be like "Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?" It's maddening.

At this rate, I'll be lucky to get vaccinated before June, as a healthy 42 year old stay at home mom.

 

[DLgal]

Okay.

Really, what is the point of this kind of response? I really want to believe all the positive things being said about vaccine administration, but it just doesn't match up to the reality in all areas. As a person who has already been vaccinated, perhaps you should think about the millions of others who would give anything to have one right now who are just sitting around twiddling their thumbs and waiting with no real hope that it will be anytime soon.

Even if J&J sent all 20 million doses that they plan to have ready by end of March to my state, I guarantee you I would not receive one by April.

 

[Jonfw2]

Really, what is the point of this kind of response? I really want to believe all the positive things being said about vaccine administration, but it just doesn't match up to the reality in all areas. As a person who has already been vaccinated, perhaps you should think about the millions of others who would give anything to have one right now who are just sitting around twiddling their thumbs and waiting with no real hope that it will be anytime soon.

Even if J&J sent all 20 million doses that they plan to have ready by end of March to my state, I guarantee you I would not receive one by April.

I mean "okay" as in that is your opinion and you're entitled to it and I have no desire to argue with it. I appreciate your frustration, but I do think your argument is more that than it is fact.

 

[Pyotr]

Exactly. The distribution is where the holdup is.

I cannot tell you how frustrated I am to see CA counties Twitter accounts announcing "we have plenty of vaccine appointments available!" "No wait for vaccines today, just come down with an ID and proof of eligiblity!" All while sharing photos of empty vaccine centers.

This should NOT be happening. Every single vaccine appointment should be booked for every single day going forward. When you get to the point where you are putting out calls on social media basically begging people to come get vaccinated, you're doing it wrong. Move to the next group! Our state has made it SO hard for counties to use their judgment, and by not even defining the "next tier group", counties cannot give vaccines outside the narrowly defined groups that have been authorized by the state. They have to sit there and be like "Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?" It's maddening.

At this rate, I'll be lucky to get vaccinated before June, as a healthy 42 year old stay at home mom.

Look on the bright side, at least your state has a plan. We are vaccinating 65+ with no real idea who’s going next...

 

[Heigh-Ho]

I mean "okay" as in that is your opinion and you're entitled to it and I have no desire to argue with it. I appreciate your frustration, but I do think your argument is more that than it is fact.

But I do think both of those posters have some points and that's not me trying to argue.

What number of doses, even in complete total considering now all 3 vaccines available, does not actually mean that everyone who wants one will be able to get it in the timeframe given.

We are a country with 50 states and then with Tribes added on and U.S. territories. it has never been as simple as saying the U.S. is getting this many doses and that means this many citizens can get it. While that may be factually correct it's a high-level overview and doesn't care about the intricacies. A high-level overview can be very helpful when comparing this country to that country (or group of countries like discussing the EU or the UK) but when you are actually talking about the people themselves within a country (or group of countries) it's just not an accurate portrayal of what it is.

How does the Federal government make sure that every person of the U.S. has the opportunity by April to get the vaccine? Did I miss what their plan was for that? And I'm sorry if I did there's been a lot of stuff may have missed it.

 

[Jonfw2]

But I do think both of those posters have some points and that's not me trying to argue.

What number of doses, even in complete total considering now all 3 vaccines available, does not actually mean that everyone who wants one will be able to get it in the timeframe given.

We are a country with 50 states and then with Tribes added on and U.S. territories. it has never been as simple as saying the U.S. is getting this many doses and that means this many citizens can get it. While that may be factually correct it's a high-level overview and doesn't care about the intricacies. A high-level overview can be very helpful when comparing this country to that country (or group of countries like discussing the EU or the UK) but when you are actually talking about the people themselves within a country (or group of countries) it's just not an accurate portrayal of what it is.

How does the Federal government make sure that every person of the U.S. has the opportunity by April to get the vaccine? Did I miss what their plan was for that? And I'm sorry if I did there's been a lot of stuff may have missed it.

1. the volume of doses is increasing dramatically.
2. the efficiency in getting them into arms is increasing dramatically.
3. both of these things will continue.