CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[gwynne]

I would take the one dose jnj over the two dose anyday.


Totally different tone! But sadly our media doesn’t like too much good things.

There are folks who will choose "one" dose. It's understandable.
Eventually the J&J might be best targeted to college populations, people in congregate living like shelters and prisons.

The case for likely boosters will need to be made over time. But, J&J would free up more doses of Moderna and Pfizer.

 

[godisney14]

I don't think you can compare the numbers like that.

Pfizer and Moderna ran their trials before the various "super" variants recently in the news were out and about. There have been no trials run to show how those vaccines will perform.

From J&J preliminary numbers:
72% efficacy in the US
57% in South Africa

J&J knows much better then Pfizer or Moderna how their vaccine performs in the real world against the South African variant.

But people will incorrectly compare numbers and draw the wrong conclusions and perhaps pass up a vaccine opportunity.

Very important distinction. Glad you brought it up.

One can’t just directly compare results from two different time periods with a different population pool (different dominant strain).

And I’ll add to your data that the J&J was shown to be 66% effective in Latin America (the Brazilian strain).

What is known, however, about the Moderna vaccine is that they said their vaccine is 6-fold less effective in-vitro against the South African strain.

ETA: Basically what all this means is that we’ll be getting boosters in the future regardless of which vaccine you get to try to stay with the curve. Get ready for those regular flu and COVID shots.

 

[wvjules]

I don't think you can compare the numbers like that.

Pfizer and Moderna ran their trials before the various "super" variants recently in the news were out and about. There have been no trials run to show how those vaccines will perform.

From J&J preliminary numbers:
72% efficacy in the US
57% in South Africa

J&J knows much better then Pfizer or Moderna how their vaccine performs in the real world against the South African variant.

But people will incorrectly compare numbers and draw the wrong conclusions and perhaps pass up a vaccine opportunity.

I will not pass up an opportunity to get any vaccine. I hope most won't.

 

[godisney14]

I will not pass up an opportunity to get any vaccine. I hope most won't.

True for the most part.
If one had a choice between Pfizer/BioNTech/Moderna or J&J, I think the rationale popular choice would be to choose J&J (for the initial inoculation).

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

If I"m understanding this correctly, NY didn't undercount COVID deaths, but didn't designate them as nursing home residents correct?

This part seems sorta 50/50 if I read between the lines. 50% they didn't undercount as a whole, 50% the numbers are missing somewhere from known data. There's some mistrust regarding if NY is giving accurate information regarding their handling of nursing homes so I could see if there's an uncertainty if the numbers were even included in the overall death rate.

In an honest dialogue I think it's becoming harder to trust what officials say (personal opinion) and that goes for many places.

If we listen to New York health chief Zucker reading from the article he "explained during the legislative hearing that New York only counts deaths on the nursing home property to avoid “double-counting” deaths in both the home and the hospital. And while he acknowledged the state keeps a running count of nursing home resident deaths at hospitals, he declined to provide even a rough estimate to lawmakers."

So erroring on the side of believing the deaths may be counted in the numbers but not attributed to the appropriate designation which in this case would be nursing home deaths...but why not then be transparent and tell lawmakers the amount under the guise of not having the information? NY has hailed themselves as being great in the pandemic's response, posters have touted the low percent positive (likely because of what information has been drilled into them), Cuomo writes a book about beating covid long before he should have (if he ever should have lol), people say over and over why didn't other states learn from NY you had months and months, etc. I don't think any state can call themselves perfect so it's not meant to be a one-sided thing against NY, but no one can deny NY has been one of the states to be in the forefront and they put themselves there. And without being too political I think the fact that the heat is coming from his own political party means a lot. In a nation so concentrated on political parties and assuming one's actions are only due to that it's quite a deviation from that.

Sadly, so many are still dying in those long term care facilities.

And it's so terrible it really is. I'm hopeful that in the next month or two we'll get to see a sharp decline since this group will have largely been vaccinated by then.

 

[aggiedog]

My understanding is that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were very effective against severe disease that would require hospitalization. (Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.) Interesting that the AZ study considers loss of work, even unhospitalized, as severe as well, because that would cover a LOT more cases. I'm glad the vaccines keep people out of the hospital, but what scares me is the number of long haulers who did not require hospitalization to begin with. I'm sure those numbers regarding vaccinations will come out as time goes on, but it will be very interesting to see how the vaccines affect this manifestation of the disease.

FWIW, I got my second Moderna last week.

 

[DLgal]

Bad news from JNJ: their vaccine is only 72% efficacy and is less effective than that against some strains.

But, looking past the headline, it's not horrible...they saw no SEVERE cases and no cases at all after day 49 of the vax. Ironically, that puts its effectiveness after 2 months about where the other two are.

Long story short, Scott Gottleib is thrilled with this news.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/29/cov...t-in-the-us-but-less-effective-elsewhere.html

There is nothing bad about this news, for goodnesssake. This is WONDERFUL news. Bad news would have been "less than 50% effective overall."

Plus, this vaccine having been tested against the current SA and UK strains and STILL being over 50% effective is AMAZING.

We don't even know how effective the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are against these strains, exactly. Just guesses so far, and in fact, they could have the same effectiveness as the J&J one against these more potent strains.

In addition, there were NO allergic reactions to this vaccine in the trial, so that is another win.

 

[Jonfw2]

There is nothing bad about this news, for goodnesssake. This is WONDERFUL news. Bad news would have been "less than 50% effective overall."

Plus, this vaccine having been tested against the current SA and UK strains and STILL being over 50% effective is AMAZING.

We don't even know how effective the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are against these strains, exactly. Just guesses so far, and in fact, they could have the same effectiveness as the J&J one against these more potent strains.

In addition, there were NO allergic reactions to this vaccine in the trial, so that is another win.

yes...I clarified literally all of that in this and other posts.

 

[DLgal]

yes...I clarified literally all of that in this and other posts.

But you didn't choose to edit out "bad news."

You are no better than the mainstream media and their doom and gloom headlines.

 

[Jonfw2]

But you didn't choose to edit out "bad news."

You are no better than the mainstream media and their doom and gloom headlines.

Pop quiz...what poster wrote the following:

"The bottom line is the JNJ news is absolutely good, maybe great news. The headline number of 72% tells very little of the actual story.".

 

[lifesavacation]

I think the J&J news today is excellent for countries that don’t have the capabilities to handle the Moderna and Pfizer requirements. We need vaccines rapidly distributed on a global level and this can help get us there.

 

[DLgal]

Pop quiz...what poster wrote the following:

"The bottom line is the JNJ news is absolutely good, maybe great news. The headline number of 72% tells very little of the actual story.".

Pop quiz, 2 questions:

So why did you say "bad news?"

Why won't you take that out?

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I think the J&J news today is excellent for countries that don’t have the capabilities to handle the Moderna and Pfizer requirements. We need vaccines rapidly distributed on a global level and this can help get us there.

I was also thinking and I know a few other posters have on other threads the homeless and those in shelters for other reasons J&J would be good for them. The high transient factor makes 2 or more doses more difficult to complete the entire vaccination.

 

[lifesavacation]

I was also thinking and I know a few other posters have on other threads the homeless and those in shelters for other reasons J&J would be good for them. The high transient factor makes 2 or more doses more difficult to complete the entire vaccination.

And rural communities here in the US might benefit too. It’s good news we have another option

 

[Jonfw2]

Pop quiz, 2 questions:

So why did you say "bad news?"

Why won't you take that out?

1. Because the "headline number" and efficacy against newer strains indeed appeared to be bad news when I made the comment.

2. What difference does it make to you? I said what I said. I only edit typos or to add info- I never change what I said. I'm not interested in rewriting history.

3. BONUS: Why do you care so much about this tiny thing???

 

[DLgal]

3. BONUS: Why do you care so much about this tiny thing???

I find it very puzzling that you have been an absolute vaccine cheerleader for this whole entire thread, but then you chose to use that phrase WRT the news today. Just seems off brand for you, honestly.

It's good news, no matter how anyone tries to spin it.

 

[Colleen27]

"The 76-page report found an undercount of more than 50%, backing up the findings of an Associated Press investigation last year that focused on the fact that New York is one of the only states in the nation that count residents who died on nursing home property and not those who later died in hospitals. Such an undercount would mean the state's current official tally of 8,711 nursing home deaths to the virus is actually more than 13,000, boosting New York from No. 6 to highest in the nation."

Underlying is mine..I really didn't know this. Wonder what other states did this. I know on a different thread there was a discussion on doses administered and distributed where the CDC tracker didn't account for long-term care facilities but this appears to be a continued separation going on when it comes to long-term care. I know there's been a lot of past discussion regarding 'counting' a covid death and the circumstances of their death so I guess I found this to be interesting to be the opposite where deaths weren't being counted on the state's numbers just because they passed away in a hospital.

Wow. My state has been clear from the start that they're basing the official counts (both positive cases and deaths) on the patient's self-reported address, not on where they died. So most nursing home and care facility residents should be counted as such, regardless of where they died. The exception to that would be those who are in temporary nursing home placements for physical therapy/rehabilitation. And I think if there were discrepancies in the data to the extent the AP found in NY, our divided state government would have dug it up for political reasons by now.

JMO, Boosters...maybe multiple over years...will be part of our lives going forward. I don't see how we maintain protection from the ever evolving virus without them.

Something that doesn't seem to be getting a lot of mention right now is that the unchecked rate of infection is what lays the groundwork for the virus to evolve. Relative to the flu, this virus is still considered quite stable. Once it doesn't have millions of hosts at once in which to improve, the odds of meaningful new variants will plummet. So we may have a few years of playing catch up with the variants developing right now, both known and as-yet unknown, but it isn't likely to be quite like the flu where we're facing multiple new strains every year.

 

[Jonfw2]

Some semi good news: the daily positive test % in the US is down to 8.5%, which represents the lowest it has been in around 2 1/2 months.

 

[Jonfw2]

11% of UK residents have now received at least 1 dose. Here are their daily numbers for the last 3 Fridays:

- Jan 15: 55,000 new cases
- Jan 22: 40,000 new cases
- Jan 29: 29,000 new cases

Interestingly, the percentage drop from week to week is exactly the same at 27.5%.

 

[Jonfw2]

One more note then I'll shut up*:

The US hit its highest vax per day number ever yesterday with 1.7 million shots given.

*This will never happen...well...it's happened twice. But it will never happen again. I hope.