CDC Estimates that H1N1 Will be a Catagory 2 Pandemic

[Pennykay]

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now estimating the virus will be a "Category 2," which means it has the following characteristics:

Case fatality ratio of 0.1 percent to less than 0.5 percent.

Between 90,000 and 450,000 deaths in the U.S. (compared with estimated 36,000 deaths during a typical influenza season).

See pages 6&7:

http://files.aatb.org/webfiles/bulletinfiles/keypoints_CDC_6_11_2009.pdf

 

[Mrs.Reese]

Everybody RUN! PANIC! HIDE!!!

 

[Pennykay]

Nobody is saying run, panic, or hide. I am just sharing facts. If you don't want to read it then move on.

 

[mousetravel]

There's a reported case of swine flu at Clemson University from our local newspaper, with the headline "more cases expected".

 

[JessicaR]

OK so I read this:

At the current time, CDC estimates that the pandemic situation in the
U.S. would be equivalent to a pandemic severity index of 2. (This
would be most similar to the 1957 influenza pandemic, however, it’s
uncertain how the current situation will evolve over the coming
months so it’s not possible to make a predication about deaths at this
time.)

I take that to mean that the CDC estimates this is what it is currently (as of June 11th, 2009) not what it will be.

Yes or no? I am trying to figure out if this is as you said, an estimation of what will be or what it actually is presently.

I admit I have not read the entire report, but I will do that now! Thanks for posting.

 

[DawnCt1]

Everybody RUN! PANIC! HIDE!!!

I agree, RUN to your physician's office to get your H1N1 flu shot when it becomes available.

 

[LuvOrlando]

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[Pennykay]

The way I read it, they are predicting how many people will die from H1N1 in a season.

 

[Pennykay]

Thanks for the nice posts. I just don't see this stuff in the general media, and I think it is important for us all to know what is going on. Good or bad, being informed is the key.

 

[luvmy3]

Thanks for the nice posts. I just don't see this stuff in the general media, and I think it is important for us all to know what is going on. Good or bad, being informed is the key.

Thanks for the update OP, some of us do appreciate it

 

[Carly_Roach]

Meh. Just headlines. I'll worry about a pandemic when it happens. I'm sure the headlines will tell me if/when we are having a pandemic.

In the meantime, I'll remember that I'm more likely to die in a car accident or getting hit by lightning than I am from the swine flu.

 

[acejka]

Huh! I didn't even know it was still going around... I haven't heard much about it lately.

 

[luvmy3]

Meh. Just headlines. I'll worry about a pandemic when it happens. I'm sure the headlines will tell me if/when we have a pandemic.

In the meantime, I'll remember that I'm more likely to die in a car accident or getting hit by lightning than I am from the swine flu.

Maybe not when/if it reaches severity index 2

H1N1 is already a pandemic, which has nothing to do with its severity. The severity index is different and that is the new information the OP is sharing with us.

 

[C.Ann]

Back to the same question I asked on another thread - which I don't think was answered (possibly because no one knows for sure)..

I live with my DD, her DH, and my soon-to-be 11 yr. old DGD from November through mid-April.. I am one of those high risk people who will have to get this vaccine whether I like it or not..

The question is: If I get the vaccine and no one else in my DD's house does, would I be sufficiently "covered" if one of them were to get this flu - or do they all have to get the vaccine as well? My son-in-law has terrible, terrible problems with "needles" - just mention a needle and he turns white as a ghost, gets sick to his stomach, and nearly passes out..

Whatever they decide to do, I don't feel as though it's my right to "insist" that they get this vaccine if they don't want to (which has yet to be established)..

So - does anyone have an answer for me?

Thanks!

 

[happygirl]

Nobody is saying run, panic, or hide. I am just sharing facts. If you don't want to read it then move on.

Thanks for the update

 

[LuvOrlando]

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[luvwinnie]

Meh. Just headlines. I'll worry about a pandemic when it happens. I'm sure the headlines will tell me if/when we are having a pandemic.

In the meantime, I'll remember that I'm more likely to die in a car accident or getting hit by lightning than I am from the swine flu.

It IS officially a pandemic.

 

[krcit]

I have friends in the medical field-one works in a peds office. She estimates that they are seeing almost 100 kids a day with the flu. they aren't testing for swine specifically unless someone is high risk-just testing if it's type A or B. Swine is type A. My dd had type A last week which they are assuming was swine. I was sick the week before her but never got tested so I'm assuming I had it also. Luckily we both recovered quickly.

 

[LuvOrlando]

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[Pennykay]

Unfortunately, if the virus begins mutating it will be much more difficult to create a vaccine for it.