Not too totally highjack the thread, but I do no not look at the numbers the same way you do. When I do my calculus I determine what I am paying per point over the course of the contract. I understand and it is implied certain resorts cost more per night to stay there. Very rarely I think everyone will use their points every year at their home resort, so I look at the points I have and what I paid per point.
The original poster asked initially if CCV direct would be better than buying VGF resale. That decision should be based on if they really really want the added benefits to buy direct. If not, then I would recommend probably a CCV resale as the numbers below are not as accurate. But it should mostly be based on where you really really want to have that booking advantage.
When I run the numbers, and these are subject to change because the MF for all resorts are going to go up. But based on todays MFs over the course of the entire remaining contracts, the number come out as this.
200 Point VGF on resale at $161 per point, MF on 200 points over 45 years = about $9.965 per point in total costs
200 CCV direct with current incentive is around $179.50, MF on 200 points over 49 years = 11.09 per point in total costs
You are correct in that with 200 points you will get about 2 extra nights per year at CCV, but I still argue, not everyone will always stay at their home resorts every year, which is why I base my decisions off price per point of the total investment. Also understand, none of these numbers factor in closing costs.
And I do agree with all of the posters that you should buy where you want to stay a majority of the time for that 11 month booking window. I would just caution that you may not always stay there or you might need to rent your points out.