Captain's announcement to NCL Crew, cruise ship employees being sent home (again)

[nmackovski]

Listening to the Captain's message was interesting and disappointing.

Thanks to "The Shiplife" for the content.

 

[disneylove69]

Word is ships wont sail till 2022 at the earliest if the survive.

 

[jlwhitney]

Word is ships wont sail till 2022 at the earliest if the survive.

This really wouldn't surprise me, but I think a lot of it is because its one of the most complicated industries to bring back. I really think most of us at least in the US will be living our normal lives well before cruises come back. Just crew alone complicates it, sure they have crew ready to sign back up but they are also gonna have many that may have found other jobs or now don't want to work on a ship. Its gonna be almost like starting brand new. It is really sad and I do think the lines are gonna struggle really bad and will be operating much smaller fleets when they come back and some may not and I really think there could be a chance that cruising really doesn't come back either.

 

[gotomu212]

This is speculation, but this is a really big red flag for me. The article I read is that they are started the unloading, sailing around to do some, and expect to be done by April 1. Yes, it doesn’t make sense to pay people for 2 months on the ship, but if they expect this disembarking to be going on in March I don’t think they are planning for May restarts. Just the effort to staff the ship, train, get through quarantine periods- I don’t see them unloading people on March 31st and then turning around to bring thousands in on April 2nd for a May start.

To me, this is a sign that the bigger lines are expecting a much later start than current cancellations suggest.

 

[DCLCruiseFan09]

There was another thread on here/news story where Port Canaveral was talking about a return to service of July at the earliest and based on the current vaccination goals, I think that is really realistic. 2022 will probably be more of a traditional return to service without restrictions/face masks.

With Disney having such a strong footing outside of the cruise industry (Theme Parks, Disney+, etc) I am not as worried about DCL the way I worry about the other lines that have no other source of revenue than cruising.

 

[tidefan]

With the imminent approval of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, I was watching the ex-head of the FDA (can't remember his name) on TV and he stated that with the 100 million doses of J&J that will be delivered by June, that he expects that the adult population (16 and up) that wants a vaccine can be vaccinated by June. Here in Alabama, next week we move further into Phase 1b including 65+ (it had been 75+), first responders, education workers, food processing workers, grocery workers, postal workers, manufacturing workers, childcare workers, and those in the judiciary.

This dovetails into other things I have heard/seen about cruising. Celebrity announced it plans to start back in mid-May with 50% occupancy. Princess is also currently scheduled to start some of their ships in mid-may as well. What these two lines and others, most notably, Holland America, have in common is that the age demographic skews higher (more so for Holland). For these lines, I think the prospect of starting mid-May at 50% is very feasible for the simple reason that their target population will most likely already be vaccinated. In the very least, by that point, they will have a large population of adults that could go, even if they required proof of vaccination for a few months. I imagine that there would be a number that wouldn't go, but that would get the ship down to the 50% level. It also gives their parent corporations (Carnival for Princess and Holland and RCCL for Celebrity) the real-world lab to implement protocols before it was rolled out to all of their lines.

On the other hand, I don't see more mainstream family lines like Carnival, RCCL, DCL, or Norwegian being able to do this as easily because a much larger percentage of the sailing passengers would be under 16.

I have also heard that some lines may take what I am calling the "Super Bowl" approach (after the 7,500 extra tickets given to vaccinated medical workers) and offer to fill some of the "test cruises" with vaccinated front-line medical workers (BTW, I think that is a great idea. These folks definitely deserve it!)

 

[Intr3pid]

With the imminent approval of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, I was watching the ex-head of the FDA (can't remember his name) on TV and he stated that with the 100 million doses of J&J that will be delivered by June, that he expects that the adult population (16 and up) that wants a vaccine can be vaccinated by June.

Not vaccinated by June, but rather - we could have a vaccine for everyone by June. This is based on the contractual purchase schedule. To get these vaccines into the arms is a different story.

And if the new virus strains continue to make headway into the population, most of these vaccines would need modifications by fall. The reformulations won't take long but will likely take the US vaccination efforts into next year.

There is a chance of a highly controlled set of cruises to be run in the summer if the case numbers drop. Europe is more likely to see them - where EU has allowed cruising contained wholly inside its borders. The PVSA rules make it difficult for the US-based ships to pull it off.

Finally, if summer 2021 is a writeoff, there is no point chasing a restart in the fall when the demand is already low. The holiday season might be more realistic. And hence more caution from the cruise lines.

 

[brentm77]

There was another thread on here/news story where Port Canaveral was talking about a return to service of July at the earliest and based on the current vaccination goals, I think that is really realistic. 2022 will probably be more of a traditional return to service without restrictions/face masks.

To be accurate, it was actually July at the latest. Many here think that is over optimistic. But July was a "worst-case" scenario according to Port Canaveral.

 

[brentm77]

Finally, if summer 2021 is a writeoff, there is no point chasing a restart in the fall when the demand is already low. The holiday season might be more realistic. And hence more caution from the cruise lines.

Wouldn't fall be a great time to restart if indeed demand is lower? They will be sailing at reduced capacity, so it seems ideal before the busier holiday season. Work out the kinks before then.

 

[tidefan]

Not vaccinated by June, but rather - we could have a vaccine for everyone by June. This is based on the contractual purchase schedule. To get these vaccines into the arms is a different story.

And if the new virus strains continue to make headway into the population, most of these vaccines would need modifications by fall. The reformulations won't take long but will likely take the US vaccination efforts into next year.

There is a chance of a highly controlled set of cruises to be run in the summer if the case numbers drop. Europe is more likely to see them - where EU has allowed cruising contained wholly inside its borders. The PVSA rules make it difficult for the US-based ships to pull it off.

Finally, if summer 2021 is a writeoff, there is no point chasing a restart in the fall when the demand is already low. The holiday season might be more realistic. And hence more caution from the cruise lines.

So, you are basically saying we won't cruise until something like mid-2022/early 2023?

IMHO, you have to start somewhere. My point was that a large portion of the especially over 50 adult population will be vaccinated, with that, I mean 2 weeks out post their final vaccination shot. Mutations are always going to occur with any virus, which is why we have a yearly flu vaccine. Yes, there is always going to be risk, but to me the question is what level of risk is worth it to return to some form of normalcy? What is the inflection curve? With influenza vaccines we still have upwards of 60,000-100,000 deaths a year from the flu, yet that does not close anything down. With COVID, do we get to that level to reopen things, or do we wait until infections are close to 0? Again, not sure there is a "right" answer to that question.

Not trying to be argumentative, but I used to work in Clinical Trials and we had these discussions (granted, not on things this scale) all the time, and it always seems like everyone has a different opinion on it. Now, I will agree that much of this supposition will depend on what happens in the next couple of months. While I think the J&J vaccine is a huge game-changer, it has the potential NOT to be if people say "meh, I'd rather wait a few months and try to get Pfizer/Moderna". Even with the variant, J&J was 57% effective against the South African variant, which even for that is above the 50% threshold originally desired by the FDA. Also, even with the SA variant, it still protected 100% against death and 85% against severe disease. So, I do worry that Pfizer/Moderna have moved the goalposts on the conversation and that we are letting perfect be the enemy of very good.

Israel is going to be the test case to watch. They are close to 40% of the population having their first shot (I believe they are all Pfizer), and maybe 5-10% already having the second dose. Hospitalizations and infections have plummeted among the 60+ age group. However, the flip side to that good news is that with the British variant dominant there, their numbers are still high, but shifted. I think I read that something like 50,000 active cases are among school age children, showing that yes, you will need to eventually get to everyone. However, it will be interesting as we get into Feb/March to see what their numbers look like as more and more people get two weeks out from their last shot.

But I digress... As to cruising, what really matters is liability (and of course, CDC approval) and I think that if lines can fill with vaccinated passengers (and maybe vaccinated crew? that's another wildcard) it would shift liability off of the cruise lines and on to individual passengers. Now, if they can go anywhere is a completely different question...

 

[Intr3pid]

So, you are basically saying we won't cruise until something like mid-2022/early 2023?

IMHO, you have to start somewhere. My point was that a large portion of the especially over 50 adult population will be vaccinated, with that, I mean 2 weeks out post their final vaccination shot. Mutations are always going to occur with any virus, which is why we have a yearly flu vaccine. Yes, there is always going to be risk, but to me the question is what level of risk is worth it to return to some form of normalcy? What is the inflection curve? With influenza vaccines we still have upwards of 60,000-100,000 deaths a year from the flu, yet that does not close anything down. With COVID, do we get to that level to reopen things, or do we wait until infections are close to 0? Again, not sure there is a "right" answer to that question.

Not trying to be argumentative, but I used to work in Clinical Trials and we had these discussions (granted, not on things this scale) all the time, and it always seems like everyone has a different opinion on it. Now, I will agree that much of this supposition will depend on what happens in the next couple of months. While I think the J&J vaccine is a huge game-changer, it has the potential NOT to be if people say "meh, I'd rather wait a few months and try to get Pfizer/Moderna". Even with the variant, J&J was 57% effective against the South African variant, which even for that is above the 50% threshold originally desired by the FDA. Also, even with the SA variant, it still protected 100% against death and 85% against severe disease. So, I do worry that Pfizer/Moderna have moved the goalposts on the conversation and that we are letting perfect be the enemy of very good.

Israel is going to be the test case to watch. They are close to 40% of the population having their first shot (I believe they are all Pfizer), and maybe 5-10% already having the second dose. Hospitalizations and infections have plummeted among the 60+ age group. However, the flip side to that good news is that with the British variant dominant there, their numbers are still high, but shifted. I think I read that something like 50,000 active cases are among school age children, showing that yes, you will need to eventually get to everyone. However, it will be interesting as we get into Feb/March to see what their numbers look like as more and more people get two weeks out from their last shot.

But I digress... As to cruising, what really matters is liability (and of course, CDC approval) and I think that if lines can fill with vaccinated passengers (and maybe vaccinated crew? that's another wildcard) it would shift liability off of the cruise lines and on to individual passengers. Now, if they can go anywhere is a completely different question...

To clarify, I'm not saying that the cruising itself will wait till 2022/2023. (There is a potential scenario, yes, but it will cost us a cruise line or two - so let's shelve its discussion for now.)

I think there is a chance for cruising to begin in summer 2021 in a very controlled manner. Summer has the big profit margins, so I expect cruise lines to fight hard to make it happen in some way.

Without the modified vaccines out though, countries will not take a chance to open borders even if the domestic situation has improved. (Check out Australia and NZ.) And the PVSA rules make it a challenge for US-only cruising - unless maybe the Bahamas (or somewhere in the Caribbeans) is fully vaccinated and CDC somehow doesn't view visiting it a risk.

That's why Europe has a better chance of making it happen in the summer.

 

[Intr3pid]

Wouldn't fall be a great time to restart if indeed demand is lower? They will be sailing at reduced capacity, so it seems ideal before the busier holiday season. Work out the kinks before then.

That's a good point. The months of September and October are the issue because of the hurricane season, but November could see a soft restart. Typically, cruise lines make enough money in the summer to weather the fall (so to speak). They would still make more money operating a 50% occupied ship than one in a warm layup.

 

[tidefan]

To clarify, I'm not saying that the cruising itself will wait till 2022/2023. (There is a potential scenario, yes, but it will cost us a cruise line or two - so let's shelve its discussion for now.)

I think there is a chance for cruising to begin in summer 2021 in a very controlled manner. Summer has the big profit margins, so I expect cruise lines to fight hard to make it happen in some way.

Without the modified vaccines out though, countries will not take a chance to open borders even if the domestic situation has improved. (Check out Australia and NZ.) And the PVSA rules make it a challenge for US-only cruising - unless maybe the Bahamas (or somewhere in the Caribbeans) is fully vaccinated and CDC somehow doesn't view visiting it a risk.

That's why Europe has a better chance of making it happen in the summer.

I think we are actually on the same page. I am thinking it will be limited as well, just suggesting that those that do start a few ships would probably be lines that traditionally don’t have as many under 16’s...

 

[Birdie dog]

Both Pfizer and Moderna have stated their vaccine is effective against the variants. J&J is also to an extent. I believe their trials in South Africa showed a 53(ish) decrease in infection and in all countries, one month post vaccine, no deaths or severe cases of covid were reported. There may very well be boosters down the line, but these variants aren't the doom and gloom people are expecting as long as we continue to vaccinate the population quickly.

https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson...nterim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial

 

[Hegemon]

Great discussion, thanks everyone.

 

[Cheburashka]

Am I the only person who doesn't think that that cruise lines getting a vaccinated crew is going to be that problematic? The CDC will probably mandate a vaccinated crew, so to me it seems likely that cruise lines will be given vaccine access which they can then give to their crew members to get everyone vaccinated. Kind of like certain organizations currently get vaccine access, like my school district did for its high risk employees. Obviously, with the vaccine just beginning its roll-out, vaccine supply isn't going to be diverted to cruise lines right now, but by summer when vaccination is more widespread & more vaccines are available, I do think that cruise lines (given their importance to regional sectors of the U.S. economy) will be given access to vaccines for their crews to receive, and I expect that full vaccination of the crew will one of the CDC's requirements for the actual resumption of sailing.

I don't think that every potential crew member is going to be expected to source their own vaccine in their home country. The cruise lines will probably be able to give it to them in the couple of months before sailings resume (summer or fall). Then they will document that and show the data to the CDC as they prepare to resume sailing.

 

[princessmommyx3]

Am I the only person who doesn't think that that cruise lines getting a vaccinated crew is going to be that problematic? The CDC will probably mandate a vaccinated crew, so to me it seems likely that cruise lines will be given vaccine access which they can then give to their crew members to get everyone vaccinated. Kind of like certain organizations currently get vaccine access, like my school district did for its high risk employees. Obviously, with the vaccine just beginning its roll-out, vaccine supply isn't going to be diverted to cruise lines right now, but by summer when vaccination is more widespread & more vaccines are available, I do think that cruise lines (given their importance to regional sectors of the U.S. economy) will be given access to vaccines for their crews to receive, and I expect that full vaccination of the crew will one of the CDC's requirements for the actual resumption of sailing.

I don't think that every potential crew member is going to be expected to source their own vaccine in their home country. The cruise lines will probably be able to give it to them in the couple of months before sailings resume (summer or fall). Then they will document that and show the data to the CDC as they prepare to resume sailing.

I agree with you.

 

[otten]

Am I the only person who doesn't think that that cruise lines getting a vaccinated crew is going to be that problematic? The CDC will probably mandate a vaccinated crew, so to me it seems likely that cruise lines will be given vaccine access which they can then give to their crew members to get everyone vaccinated. Kind of like certain organizations currently get vaccine access, like my school district did for its high risk employees. Obviously, with the vaccine just beginning its roll-out, vaccine supply isn't going to be diverted to cruise lines right now, but by summer when vaccination is more widespread & more vaccines are available, I do think that cruise lines (given their importance to regional sectors of the U.S. economy) will be given access to vaccines for their crews to receive, and I expect that full vaccination of the crew will one of the CDC's requirements for the actual resumption of sailing.

I don't think that every potential crew member is going to be expected to source their own vaccine in their home country. The cruise lines will probably be able to give it to them in the couple of months before sailings resume (summer or fall). Then they will document that and show the data to the CDC as they prepare to resume sailing.

I think there are some logistical issues besides just getting the doses which would need to be worked through but the main thing is that if cruise lines can't start vaccinating crew until the summer then we're looking at no sooner than probably mid fall for test cruises to start, likely winter for passenger sailings.

 

[Cheburashka]

I think there are some logistical issues besides just getting the doses which would need to be worked through but the main thing is that if cruise lines can't start vaccinating crew until the summer then we're looking at no sooner than probably mid fall for test cruises to start, likely winter for passenger sailings.

Yes, I don't see mass-market cruising resuming in the summer. I think crew vaccination will begin in the late spring / early summer (along with detailed planning and negotiation between the cruise lines and the CDC), with test cruises in the late summer / early fall, and passenger cruises beginning mid-fall.

 

[AquaDame]

That would work for me... I still have a cruise planned for early November. Personally I'm not concerned about the altered experience so we'd be good guinea pigs (as long as we don't get stuck at sea or have a forced quarantine - that I would not be thrilled about).