One of the difficulties we have in this discussion is we're all flying blind. None of us really know what Disney's
real motivation is for the crackdown; we can only guess.
It could be the renter competition with CRO, but I sorta doubt that.
It could be complaints from DVC owners who find they are unable to get ressies at smaller resorts during peak times, even within their 11-month windows. Especially to the degree that point-morphing distorts availability during certain periods, I think that's a likely concern.
It could be that DVC owners are complaining they can't get the ressies they want at non-home resorts during their 7-month windows. It's easy to say, "You snooze, you lose," but to the degree that point-morphing is responsible, it's still a legitimate complaint. We all know how the Guides hype the ability to "book anywhere at seven months," and if the inability to do that has caused complaints, DVC may need to respond to protect the integrity of their program.
It could be that there have been incidents where renters encountered problems with their ressies (or DME, or
DDP, or requests, or name changes in their party, or a dozen other possibilities). Sure the rental is a private transaction between the owner and renter, but when that renter is in the OKW lobby upset, it becomes a DVC problem. The Disney lawyers could be concerned that some liability accrues to Disney if they facilitate renting to the degree they have in the past.
It could have been sharp MS CMs or Disney auditors who looked at some of the transaction histories in some accounts, and said,"Wow, look at THIS!" From some of the stories we hear about people running 100,000 points through their account in one year, I can especially see auditors being concerned about the accounts being used inappropriately.
Just from the sales/resort tax issue alone, I can understand auditors being concerned. 100,000 points rented at $10 is $1 million, and that should generate somewhere between $60,000 and $100,000 in tax revenue for the State of Florida alone. If rentals are occurring on a huge scale, DVC may unwittingly be facilitating the avoidance of huge amounts of tax.
The other reason auditors might become concerned with large-scale renting is it's not the purpose of DVC. The program is set up in a certain way as a vehicle for families to vacation, not for people to run a rental business or fund their retirement. Auditors have a responsibility not only for the monetary aspects of things, but also for adherence to established policies.
And finally, another possibility is the large rental volume has simply magnified the workload of MS to the degree that it's become burdensome. As MS has to add more and more people, eventually someone should look at the workload and have an enlightening experience about the level of work that is devoted to processing rental transactions. I'm sure that's what led to the Members-only MS policy, and may in turn have led to the rental crackdown.
Until we figure out
why Disney is cracking down, I think it's very difficult to anticipate
how they'll crack down. It's fun to speculate, but none of us really know.