BWV 2017 Point Increase Explanation (Updated at Post #30)

[drusba]

In one of the earlier lengthy threads about the 2017 point chart changes, there was discussion of the peculiar one point per night increase during premier season for BWV preferred view 2BRs. Since there about 108 boardwalk and pool/garden 2BRs affected, the result was an about a 2300 point overall increase for that season. Nothing else on the point chart changed (except usual changes in dates for Thanksgiving and Easter time), including that there was no required offsetting decrease shown elsewhere on the chart.

I mentioned in that lengthy thread that I had emailed MS for an explanation and would provide it on this site when I got it. On January 14, I got that explanation via a call with a gentleman with Membership Accounting:

There has been no change in classification of rooms, in that those that were standard before are still the same ones, likewise preferred. He asserterd that the change was due to seasonal changes in that dates changed for some seasons and thus the offsetting decrease would not be seen in points per night because, instead, there is just fewer nights in in one more other seasons. I said that the charts did not indicate any such change other than the usual date changes for Thanksgiving and Easter, and that I did not recall over the many years I have been a member ever seeing such a change in seasonal dates and a resulting increase in points per night in one of the seasons for any of the WDW resorts. However, he insisted there was such a change and that such an increase like the one at BWV for 2017 has often occurred in the past at WDW resorts because of seasonal date changes.

That is the end of Membership Accounting's explanation. I probed to make sure that what I have provided above is the explanation and I am not mistaken in what I was told.

 

[supersnoop]

Did you count the total number of days in each season and compare it to last year?

How is the difference between studio/one-bedroom and two-bedroom lockoff points accommodated in the points chart?

 

[freediverdude]

Yes, I'm wondering if maybe premier season was decreased by a day or two, and because it was premier season which is so many more points than other seasons, and being so short as well, just two holiday weeks and two Easter weeks usually, that it made just enough of a difference that they had to raise the rest of premier season by a point. It may happen with other seasons but not make enough of a difference to change nightly point costs or something. It probably has to do with rounding and being premier season.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

The dates for the seasons for BWV are exactly the same as other WDW resorts for 2017 just as they were for 2016.

So the explanation why no other resort had to be adjusted for that reason would be.......????

 

[freediverdude]

Hmm, so you've counted the dates and the seasons haven't changed? Now we do have a mystery then. Another option, could it be accounted for because of leap year.

 

[drusba]

I have not checked every chart going back forever but I have checked several of the years between 2000 and 2016. We had the changes when they shifted weekend to weekday points. We have also had point changes because they made some savanna rooms into standard at AKV, and theme park view rooms into standard at BLT. We also had the change that occurred for increasing the treehouses year round and lowering other rooms as a result, and will have in 2017 the change to standard and preferred view at SSR.

However, in none of the WDW charts do I see any change of the dates that are in a season at WDW except for the usual ones for Thanksgiving and Easter, which should not change anything,. i.e., choice season has always included all of October and November except for the actual three nights that are put in magic season, and magic season has always had the same beginning and ending dates except for the 14 nights that are in the premier season for the Easter weeks and the date changes for the three Thanksgiving nights. And those Thanskgiving and Easter date changes have never before resulted in any increase in points in any season. The only other date change you have is the additon of February 29 every four yeaes to magic season and that has never before resulted in any nightly changes for any rooms during any season (and it should not because point charts use a base year from about the time of initial sale of a resort that does not include leap year and thus points should never change just because of any annual calendar changes). Aulani actually had a change of dates (and number of nights) in given seasons effective 2016, but I am not seeing that in relation to any WDW resorts.

If anyone is seeing something different, please respond.

 

[freediverdude]

Wow this is a mystery then. I can't see DVC just increasing that to get an extra 2300 points for some reason out of the blue. It wouldn't be worth it to them to risk an inquiry over that relatively small number of points in the overall scheme of things. I would be interested in their real calculation though.

 

[disneynutz]

Could be a mistake that they don't want to admit. Could be another Aulani but I don't see the benefit for Disney.

Bill

 

[dismedvc]

In one of the earlier lengthy threads about the 2017 point chart changes, there was discussion of the peculiar one point per night increase during premier season for BWV preferred view 2BRs. Since there about 108 boardwalk and pool/garden 2BRs affected, the result was an about a 2300 point overall increase for that season. Nothing else on the point chart changed (except usual changes in dates for Thanksgiving and Easter time), including that there was no required offsetting decrease shown elsewhere on the chart.

In theory, the total number of points for a resort (including the points owned by DVD) should allow every room to be booked for every night of the year, and those total points can not change. However, as Supersnoop mentioned in his post #2 above, there is a problem in determining how many total points it would take to book every room for every night of the year, since 2BR units can be booked for fewer points per night than the points required to separately book a 1BR and a studio.

If the proportion of 2BR reservations at BWV increased, the total points required to book those 2BR would be lower than if there were a greater proportion of those units booked separately as 1BR and studios. In that situation, the points required for a 2BR would need to be increased to keep the total points required to book every room for every night in balance. Since all the 2BR's at BWV's are lock-offs, BWV would be the resort most likely to be impacted by such a change in the proportion booked as 2BR rather than booked as separate 1BR's and studios.

That might explain the 1 point increase in the premier season BWV preferred view 2 BR's with no decrease in any other category.

 

[freediverdude]

I suppose in theory if it wasn't related to balancing of points, it would let them sell some additional points, but I agree I don't see enough of a benefit there for Disney to bother. You know, the simplest explanation would be that it's just a typo. But then you would think they would be correcting it.

I suppose the balancing of points explained above would make the most sense, and that would be a very internal type calculation and hard to explain to an average owner, so they could have been instructed to say seasonal changes, that does make sense.

 

[paults]

where is there a 2017 point chart?

 

[drusba]

where is there a 2017 point chart?

You can find it on the DVC member website: sign in, open Plan Vacations tab at top, click on either Check Resort Availability near the top or Disney Vacation Club Resorts near the bottom, and then go to resort you want and click on View Points Chart & Calculator, then to the right you will see Download PDF's for the 2016 and 2017 point charts.

 

[dismedvc]

If the proportion of 2BR reservations at BWV increased, the total points required to book those 2BR would be lower than if there were a greater proportion of those units booked separately as 1BR and studios. In that situation, the points required for a 2BR would need to be increased to keep the total points required to book every room for every night in balance.

To add some numbers to the above; If a 2BR required 44 points per night on average and a 1BR plus Studio required 50 points per night on average (not the perfectly exact averages from the 2016 points chart, but very close, and close enough for this example) then:
1. If all 108 preferred view 2BR units were booked as 2BR the points required to book them all for a year would be 44*108*365 = 1,734,480
2. If all 108 preferred view 2BR units were booked as 1BR & Studio the points required to book all 108 for a year would be 50*108*365 = 1,971,000

In setting the point charts if DVD assumed that half of the 108 preferred view 2BR units would be booked as 2BR and half would be booked as 1BR & Studio, then the total points required to book all 108 for a year would be (1,734,480 x .50) + (1,971,000 x .50) = 1,852,740.

However, if the actual mix was not the assumed 50/50, but instead was 51% 2BR and 49% 1BR & Studio, then the total points required to book all 108 for a year would be (1,734,480 x .51) + (1,971,100 x .49) = 1,850,375.

That 1% change results in 2,365 fewer points being required to book all 108 for every night of the year, so the 2017 points chart would need to be adjusted by that amount. Note: the impact is the same for any 1% change. If DVD originally assumed 70%/30% and it was actually 71%/29% the impact would still be 2,365 points.

Since drusba's analysis indicated the impact of the change was 22 nights x 108 units x 1 point increase per night = 2,376 points, the above possible explanation does not seem that absurd.

 

[wdrl]

In theory, the total number of points for a resort (including the points owned by DVD) should allow every room to be booked for every night of the year, and those total points can not change. However, as Supersnoop mentioned in his post #2 above, there is a problem in determining how many total points it would take to book every room for every night of the year, since 2BR units can be booked for fewer points per night than the points required to separately book a 1BR and a studio.

If the proportion of 2BR reservations at BWV increased, the total points required to book those 2BR would be lower than if there were a greater proportion of those units booked separately as 1BR and studios. In that situation, the points required for a 2BR would need to be increased to keep the total points required to book every room for every night in balance. Since all the 2BR's at BWV's are lock-offs, BWV would be the resort most likely to be impacted by such a change in the proportion booked as 2BR rather than booked as separate 1BR's and studios.

That might explain the 1 point increase in the premier season BWV preferred view 2 BR's with no decrease in any other category.

No, I don't believe that is the reason for the change in BWV's point chart. In the master declarations, the lock-off two-bedrooms are treated the same way as the dedicated two-bedroom vacation homes. I can't put my finger on the exact paragraph in the master declarations, but the declarations state that no adjustments are made whether a lock-off two-bedroom vacation home is booked as a studio and one-bedroom, or as a two-bedroom.

This point change baffles me because I cannot think of any reasonable explanation for the change other than a change in the view classifications of some of the vacation homes. It can't be because of leap year. If it was, then we should see similar changes in all the resorts.

DVD will not be able to sell more points because of this change. The points allotted to each Residential Unit are set and cannot change.

At this time, there are only two logical explanations: One, the 2017 BWV point chart is in error; or two, the CM who talked to drusba was misinformed and there actually will be some view classification changes beginning in 2017.

A third logical explanation is that this reallocation falls into an area of the point reallocation process that I know nothing about. I'll concede there are many things about the inner workings of DVC that I don't understand, that I don't know about, or that I misunderstand. But in this case, I'm at a lost trying to understand how the BWV point chart can increase in 2017.

 

[dismedvc]

No, I don't believe that is the reason for the change in BWV's point chart.

Darn, the numbers worked out so perfectly in my post #13 above, but you are far more knowledgeable about what is allowed.

However. if DVD sold points based on an assumed mix, and the actual mix turned out to be a much higher percentage of lower point cost 2BR reservations, then they would have sold more points than would actually be needed to book every room every day of the year. It seems they would have to be allowed to fix that, or some members who purchased BWV points would not be able to book at BWV even if only members with BWV points were allowed to book there.

ETA: See my post #25. WDRL is indicating for the purposes of determining points to be sold, DVD bases that on 100% of 2BR lock-offs being booked as 2BR's and 0% being booked as 1BR and Studios. Since the actual mix could never be higher than the 100% DVD used, they would never need to make the adjustment I had described in my previous posts.

 

[dismedvc]

At this time, there are only two logical explanations: One, the 2017 BWV point chart is in error; or two, the CM who talked to drusba was misinformed and there actually will be some view classification changes beginning in 2017.

Since the average point difference between a 2BR preferred view and a 2BR standard view is about 6.5 points per night, if just one preferred view 2BR was downgraded to a Standard view, that would be a 365 x 6.5 = 2,372 point reduction that would need to be offset by increase somewhere else. Since the increase in the 2017 point chart would then be the remaining 107 preferred view 2BR's x 22 nights x 1 point = 2,354 that could also be a possible explanation.

However, it would seem like a lot of work just to reclassify one 2BR villa.

 

[drusba]

Darn, the numbers worked out so perfectly in my post #13 above, but you are far more knowledgeable about what is allowed.

However. if DVD sold points based on an assumed mix, and the actual mix turned out to be a much higher percentage of lower point cost 2BR reservations, then they would have sold more points than would actually be needed to book every room every day of the year. It seems they would have to be allowed to fix that, or some members who purchased BWV points would not be able to book at BWV even if only members with BWV points were allowed to book there.

A weakness in that is the non-existence of an issue at BWV that 2BRs are being booked more than anticipated. There are 149 2BR lock-offs, 130 dedicated 1BRs, and 97 dedicated studios. Despite having 97 dedicated studios, what usually happens at BWV, is that the studio demand is so high that it blocks out all the dedicated studios and most of the 2BRs, making it difficult for members at times to even find 2BRs while 1BRs, even standard and boardwalk view, remain open months beyond the 7 month window many times of the year. That problem has been getting worse and worse at BWV as the years progress and it did not suddenly reverse course to everyone getting 2BRs starting sometime recently. Moroever, it is now guaranteed to get even worse as Disney is changing all the studios into rooms that sleep 5. And you do not fix that excessive demand for studios by raising points needed for 2BRs.

 

[VLee]

Could you clarify the numbers for me please? If there are 149 2 BR lockoffs, and 97 dedicated studios, does that mean if the 97 studios are booked, it leaves only 52 2 BRs available? I am looking to possibly book a 2 BR standard Jan 3 of next year and would like to know my chances. Thanks.

 

[DebbieB]

Could you clarify the numbers for me please? If there are 149 2 BR lockoffs, and 97 dedicated studios, does that mean if the 97 studios are booked, it leaves only 52 2 BRs available? I am looking to possibly book a 2 BR standard Jan 3 of next year and would like to know my chances. Thanks.

Dedicated studios are not part of 2 bedrooms, they can only be studios. The 149 2 bedroom lockoffs consist of 149 studios and 149 1 bedrooms. Typically if someone books a studio or 1 bedroom, they first assign it from the dedicated pool of rooms. Once they are gone, they will start to break up the lockoffs if they have not been reserved as 2 bedrooms.

 

[Dean]

Any seasonal or calendar issue (weekend vs weekday for example) would have shown up across the board. The explanations I can think of at this time are correction of a past mistake, compensation because the previous reallocation did not work out exactly, shifting of villas between views or simply a typo. To get to the bottom of this, a call to corporate is likely the best option. It sounds like Member Accounting didn't know and tried to fake it. Eventually the true answer will likely filter down to MS.