Buying DVC dilemma

[skier_pete]

Yeah, points are up ridiculously in the last 6 months. I think I would be nervous buying resale at the moment...some resales are barely below Direct pricing.

 

[Pluto777]

Yeah, points are up ridiculously in the last 6 months. I think I would be nervous buying resale at the moment...some resales are barely below Direct pricing.

Capitalist prices = supply vs demand. Is there any chance (are they allowed?) for Disney to raise their prices on direct sales? Markets determine pricing in a free market, and if there is more money chasing fewer points... I only wish I had bought even MORE, but at least I bought in somewhat already : D

 

[skier_pete]

Capitalist prices = supply vs demand. Is there any chance (are they allowed?) for Disney to raise their prices on direct sales? Markets determine pricing in a free market, and if there is more money chasing fewer points... I only wish I had bought even MORE, but at least I bought in somewhat already : D

Direct pricing will likely go up soon - it goes up every year. I don't know what is causing the massive surge in pricing for resale - it has been pretty stable in the 3 years I've been watching it, only to say that maybe the strong economy has few people selling which is driving prices up. Curious what will happen when/if the next recession hits. Disney won't lower direct prices, that's for sure.

 

[sndral]

Direct pricing will likely go up soon - it goes up every year. I don't know what is causing the massive surge in pricing for resale - it has been pretty stable in the 3 years I've been watching it, only to say that maybe the strong economy has few people selling which is driving prices up. Curious what will happen when/if the next recession hits. Disney won't lower direct prices, that's for sure.

Last recession, as I recall resale prices went down. It seemed to me to be more tied to the disappearance of easy credit which was fueling a lot of spending, IMO. When that dried up so did the price of resale DVC points.
Disney won't officially lower the price per point on direct buys, but they'll de facto do so w/ a credit for buying X no. of points. During the SSR/AKV selling days I seem to remember them giving out developers points and cash back and even free cruises on purchases. So although they officially don't drop prices, they in reality drop the price through incentives.

 

[crisi]

Last recession, as I recall resale prices went down. It seemed to me to be more tied to the disappearance of easy credit which was fueling a lot of spending, IMO. When that dried up so did the price of resale DVC

I think they went down about 30-40%. We bought at $63 in 2002 - in 2008 BWV points were worth close to $100, and contracts were sold in 2009 at BWV for less than we bought in for. There were a few Vero contracts that sold in the high $30s.

Which sounds AWESOME if you are buying, but should give people pause - if you need to sell due to job loss during a recession, and you bought at these prices, you may not get nearly as much out of your contract as you need to. Recessions can be great for people who have plenty of money to take advantage of the recession. Most people are not in that boat.

 

[Jason Ballard]

I have been watching and they seem to go down as well especially when Disney continues to take away perks that buying direct gets you. Plus they can't go too low or Disney reserves the right to buy them out from under you.

 

[Spartan86]

Want to point out that @Bing Showei is actually helping me with the re-do. It's a 2-person project now and we've expanded it to all the 1-bedrooms.

Thank you so much for your efforts! And your willingness to share the information.

 

[Deb & Bill]

Once Copper Creek sells out and Riviera sells, it will only make getting something at seven months out harder. Buy where you don't mind staying if you can't change at seven months out.

 

[kboo]

Once Copper Creek sells out and Riviera sells, it will only make getting something at seven months out harder. Buy where you don't mind staying if you can't change at seven months out.

Also all the people who bought Poly direct may stay at their home resort the first few times they go and then ... want studios elsewhere at 7mo. That is also going to contribute to demand at 7mo.

 

[Dean]

Once Copper Creek sells out and Riviera sells, it will only make getting something at seven months out harder. Buy where you don't mind staying if you can't change at seven months out.

In large part that issue depends on how the demand for those 2 resorts are compared to the other higher demand resorts but that also relates to the % of those owners that will be looking for something else at 7 months out. I suspect the demand will be lower than VGF, BWV, BCV as will Poly but higher than AKV, SSR & OKW overall.

 

[anonymousegirl]

Interesting thread! I bought where I wanted to stay (BLT) and yet I can hardly ever get in there, because I tend to not make my plans until about 4 months out. And by then, BLT is sold out. I have had my contract for almost 9 years to the day, and I have only manged to stay at my home resort ONCE.
Lots of SSR though, because that is what is available when I book.
I would have loved BCV, or BWV but they weren't on offer when DH finally okayed the purchase, just BLT, AKV, and SSR (and I dislike AKV and SSR has no Disney-soul).

 

[Pluto777]

Interesting thread! I bought where I wanted to stay (BLT) and yet I can hardly ever get in there, because I tend to not make my plans until about 4 months out. And by then, BLT is sold out. I have had my contract for almost 9 years to the day, and I have only manged to stay at my home resort ONCE.
Lots of SSR though, because that is what is available when I book.
I would have loved BCV, or BWV but they weren't on offer when DH finally okayed the purchase, just BLT, AKV, and SSR (and I dislike AKV and SSR has no Disney-soul).

You make an important point: what about all the folks who simply can NOT start planning vacations 10, 7 or even 6 months out? Is it REALLY worth it for them to pay a premium for a particular home resort when at the 7 month barrier and less, it's all generic points anyhow? What does the person who can plan their vacations only 5-6 months in advance do? Buy at the 'place they want to stay', or at the place with the lowest maintenance fees?

 

[iheartglaciers]

You make an important point: what about all the folks who simply can NOT start planning vacations 10, 7 or even 6 months out? Is it REALLY worth it for them to pay a premium for a particular home resort when at the 7 month barrier and less, it's all generic points anyhow? What does the person who can plan their vacations only 5-6 months in advance do? Buy at the 'place they want to stay', or at the place with the lowest maintenance fees?

If someone can't plan vacations 7 months or more in advance, than they may as well get the cheapest resort (even my broker suggested this), but only if they would be happy staying at SSR/OKW (since that is more often what might be available) and could be flexible with dates/room types (since you can often still piece together stays with less lead time). Otherwise owning DVC might not be the best fit.

 

[momtwoboys]

If someone can't plan vacations 7 months or more in advance, than they may as well get the cheapest resort (even my broker suggested this), but only if they would be happy staying at SSR/OKW (since that is more often what might be available) and could be flexible with dates/room types (since you can often still piece together stays with less lead time). Otherwise owning DVC might not be the best fit.

exactly why we chose OKW, we like the theme, we won't ever mind ever "being stuck" there, but we have the flexibility of choosing other resorts at 7 months out for our spring trips.

 

[chalee94]

What does the person who can plan their vacations only 5-6 months in advance do? Buy at the 'place they want to stay', or at the place with the lowest maintenance fees?

If they prefer to travel in the fall, "don't buy at all" would be the best bet. That answer should always be in the conversation...

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Indeed. The assumption that DVC is a good fit for everyone is terrible. It's a timeshare, designed to run at full capacity, and the booking windows are 11 and 7 months. Even in lower season, availability can start getting suspect quickly at 7 months. For the last-minute traveler, DVC is likely to be an expensive way to travel with limited upside.

 

[skier_pete]

I would agree with the sentiment - if you can't plan at LEAST 5 months in advance, then I am not sure DVC is right for you. Disney is in fact much more flexible than many timeshares are, but even so the ability to plan in advance is pretty much a must.

But - if you decide it is right for you anyways, then yes certainly buy at SSR if you can't ever book at 7 months or greater. I point this out a lot and I'm sure most here know it already - but once you hit that 7 month mark - it important to realize that ALL POINTS PROVIDE EQUAL VALUE. A point you paid $176 for a Poly and one you paid $68 for at SSR give you the exact same thing.

 

[Pluto777]

I would agree with the sentiment - if you can't plan at LEAST 5 months in advance, then I am not sure DVC is right for you. Disney is in fact much more flexible than many timeshares are, but even so the ability to plan in advance is pretty much a must.

But - if you decide it is right for you anyways, then yes certainly buy at SSR if you can't ever book at 7 months or greater. I point this out a lot and I'm sure most here know it already - but once you hit that 7 month mark - it important to realize that ALL POINTS PROVIDE EQUAL VALUE. A point you paid $176 for a Poly and one you paid $68 for at SSR give you the exact same thing.

Anyone know what the cash price of SSR 5 months in advance would be vs. the cost if you bought SSR through DVC at say 92 a point? (and YES I know it depends on time of year... so lets day mid fall; September?)

 

[skier_pete]

Anyone know what the cash price of SSR 5 months in advance would be vs. the cost if you bought SSR through DVC at say 92 a point? (and YES I know it depends on time of year... so lets day mid fall; September?)

I September - DVC deluxe standard studio is going on the Disney website for $341 plus tax midweek - $390 plus tax weekend. Preferred is $395 and $446 respectively.
Points are 11 for a weekday, 14 for weekend standard view, 13 and 16 for preferred.

At $92 per point, that comes out to $2.48 per point per year - or for 2018 or $8.25 per point with MF

So your DVC stay will cost
Standard Weekday: $90.75 per night versus $341 + tax - 24% of cash
Standard Weekend: $115.50 per night versus $390 + tax -26 % of cash
Preferred Weekday: $107.25 per night versus $395 + tax - 24 % of cash
Preferred Weekend: $132 per night versus $446 + tax - 26 % of cash
So roughly 4 times more for cash than through DVC. Of course this ignores any discounts that might be available for cash rooms, so not really fair.

1-bedrooms are relatively cheaper though versus cash:
Standard Weekday: 22 points $181.50 per night versus $463 + tax - 35 % of cash
Standard Weekend: 27 points $222.75 per night versus $524 + tax - 38 % of cash
Preferred Weekday: 26 points $214.50 per night versus $533 + tax - 36 % of cash
Preferred Weekend: 31 points $255.75 per night versus $598 + tax - 38% of cash
So 1-bedrooms are not as good as studios vs cash, but still about 37% the cost versus cash.

So, yeah - maybe still worth it for someone that likes SSR just fine.

 

[Pluto777]

I September - DVC deluxe standard studio is going on the Disney website for $341 plus tax midweek - $390 plus tax weekend. Preferred is $395 and $446 respectively.
Points are 11 for a weekday, 14 for weekend standard view, 13 and 16 for preferred.

At $92 per point, that comes out to $2.48 per point per year - or for 2018 or $8.25 per point with MF

So your DVC stay will cost
Standard Weekday: $90.75 per night versus $341 + tax - 24% of cash
Standard Weekend: $115.50 per night versus $390 + tax -26 % of cash
Preferred Weekday: $107.25 per night versus $395 + tax - 24 % of cash
Preferred Weekend: $132 per night versus $446 + tax - 26 % of cash
So roughly 4 times more for cash than through DVC. Of course this ignores any discounts that might be available for cash rooms, so not really fair.

1-bedrooms are relatively cheaper though versus cash:
Standard Weekday: 22 points $181.50 per night versus $463 + tax - 35 % of cash
Standard Weekend: 27 points $222.75 per night versus $524 + tax - 38 % of cash
Preferred Weekday: 26 points $214.50 per night versus $533 + tax - 36 % of cash
Preferred Weekend: 31 points $255.75 per night versus $598 + tax - 38% of cash
So 1-bedrooms are not as good as studios vs cash, but still about 37% the cost versus cash.

So, yeah - maybe still worth it for someone that likes SSR just fine.

THANKS Pete!