With regards to Bill's post about Disney laughing to the bank, I believe he was engaging in a bit of hyperbole. But, if you look at the thinking behind his statement, it's not entirely flawed. People are paying $145 pp direct for AKV while others are buying it resale for $65pp. And despite what DVD would have you believe, there is not that significant a difference between direct and resale points. So is it entirely unfair to suggest that people who knowingly (or unknowingly) pay double for AKV direct points are a bit foolish? From a financial standpoint, it does seem like a foolish move. But I would not go so far as to call anybody a fool.
OK, Perhaps I was slightly over sensitive to Bill's comment. I have spent a lot of time on DVC and this decision has taken more effort then I care to admit. I am extremely analytical and really hate the picture of the naive foolish buyer.
As far as AKV, as a direct buyer, my concern would be the spread between the early direct buyer price and my buy-in price because that is true apples to apples comparison for someone buying direct. With AKV, that spread might now be so large resale might be the best option if I absolutely love AKV. However, I might consider what other direct options are available were the spread from opening price and now is reasonable. If you go down this track, you end up needing to see the info about VGF for potentially your best direct option at this time because all the current resorts given all the price increases have a large spread from opening to today. Existing resorts do present poor direct options right now, but I would still measure "spread" between early buy in price to today to rate the best values. As you point out, this has also created the largest spread between resale and direct as well (that is just not the measure I am using).
So, we might get to the same place, just using a direct bias in my case. In fact, the way Disney has done this, new resorts might be the only thing left for direct buyers needing anything more then a few points on one of their existing contracts that spend anytime trying to really analyze their options. Even these new resorts present new challenges with high entry costs and high point charts. It is not an easy world for a direct buyer. Just do not call us foolish
So I am trying to make the best direct purchase. I am spending a lot of time trying to do it. I strongly believe people considering DVC need this insight as well and not just a "buy resale because direct does not make sense" approach.