BREAKING: Walt Disney World Introduces Date-Based Variable Pricing for Genie+ Service

[set88]

How does this jive with getting less people to use it?

Yesterday was significantly less crowded than most of the month - both HS and EPCOT were only 4/10 . Genie+ works pretty well on mid to lower crowd days, so there's no compelling reason to need less people to buy it on those days. It's higher crowd days where it struggles and higher crowd days where Disney needs to sell less Genie+ to make it function correctly.

The Genie+ price has been a very good indicator of crowd levels this whole month. It is clear that Disney is charging more on days when it is more crowded.

There's not a good reason for them to be doing that if it isn't about availability management. There's absolutely no reason why people that are going to pay $18 for it today wouldn't have paid $18 for it yesterday. But some people that paid $15 might not have been willing to pay $18. Having the lower price was an indication that they could sell more without hurting LL availability. It follows that the higher price is designed, at least in part, to keep some people from buying it and make it function better on higher crowd days.

If this wasn't the intention, they could just raise the price uniformly for the whole holiday season and not lower it on lower crowd days. Again - you cannot believe that Disney thinks lowering the price gets more people to buy it without believing that Disney thinks raising the price will result in less people buying it. They go hand-in-hand.

 

[coronationday]

If there is less people in the park, that means lower wait times, that's less people that will buy it because they dont see the need, so Disney needs to price it lower so more people buy it. If there are more people in the park that means higher wait times, so there's a greater need for Genie + so they can price it higher because people will buy it regardless.

 

[xdan0920]

If this wasn't the intention, they could just raise the price uniformly for the whole holiday season and not lower it on lower crowd days. Again - you cannot believe that Disney thinks lowering the price gets more people to buy it without believing that Disney thinks raising the price will result in less people buying it. They go hand-in-hand.

They don’t go hand in hand. Disney, in no way, shape or form, wants less people purchasing G+. They raise the price when they have more people in the park because they know they can. They lower it when there are less people in order to stimulate purchases.

 

[set88]

They don’t go hand in hand. Disney, in no way, shape or form, wants less people purchasing G+. They raise the price when they have more people in the park because they know they can. They lower it when there are less people in order to stimulate purchases.

Except that they do. If lowering the price causes more people to buy, then raising the price causes less people to buy. There is absolutely no way to logic around that.

 

[xdan0920]

Except that they do. If lowering the price causes more people to buy, then raising the price causes less people to buy. There is absolutely no way to logic around that.

 

[Jrb1979]

If there is less people in the park, that means lower wait times, that's less people that will buy it because they dont see the need, so Disney needs to price it lower so more people buy it. If there are more people in the park that means higher wait times, so there's a greater need for Genie + so they can price it higher because people will buy it regardless.

That's the same way every other park does it for their passes. For some reason some here believe that's not why it's done at Disney.

 

[Juventus]

Except that they do. If lowering the price causes more people to buy, then raising the price causes less people to buy. There is absolutely no way to logic around that.

If I am going on a super busy day with huge crowds, I would be willing to buy it even if it costs, say, $30. On the other hand, if it is not a busy day and I feel that I do not need it, I would not pay for it even if they lowered it to $15.

So lowering the price does not necessarily cause more people to buy it.

And they never lowered the price.

 

[set88]

If I am going on a super busy day with huge crowds, I would be willing to buy it even if it costs, say, $30. On the other hand, if it is not a busy day and I feel that I do not need it, I would not pay for it even if they lowered it to $15.

So lowering the price does not necessarily cause more people to buy it.

And they never lowered the price.

What you're saying makes sense, but I'm not sure I think the percentage of people wanting to buy Genie+ changes that much with crowd fluctuations on a day to day basis. It's hard for anyone to predict what a particular day is going to be like and I would have to assume most Genie+ purchases are early in the day - before it's easy to tell what crowds are actually going to be like.

But of course people will be willing to pay much more at peak times like Thanksgiving. The same reason behind higher prices for everything at peak times. Demand is higher so price can be higher.

 

[leeniewdw]

Disney has all the data they need at their fingertips. They are gathering it now in real time to see how it impacts guest experience (wait times) and revenue.

I know there was a day where we weren't going to buy Rise (we'd been on it twice previously) but standing in line for ToT I glanced down and saw it was still available and on a whim, we decided to purchase it. A quick impulse buy gave them another $30+ just because it was available. Disney will know how many people purchase before 7am, or after 7am on any given day and they surely have data scientists evaluating the outcomes constantly.

 

[DisneyFive]

In 2010 the Great Recession effects were still around, discounts were much more generous and more plentiful. If you traveled then you were lucky and came out relatively unscathed. I graduated college in 2010 and could barely find a job due to the state of affairs and I knew quite a few people who went into grad school just to defer their loans because the job market was abysmal.

People have to really think about how their trips from 2001-2010/11 are really not a good measure of Disney. Absolutely no doubt Disney has far outpaced by a galaxy inflation (your 2010 trip would have the same buying power as a bit over $4,600 in today's dollars) but what price you got is co-mingled due to economic factors. We do know as the economy rebounded from 9/11 and then after the Recession pricing adjusted for Disney. It's not in the same league as today in terms of costs rising on such a high scale but same basic principle.

Yeah, 2010 was the height of the recession. However, the cost of a Disney vacation wasn't much different in 2010 than before the recession in 2007. Free Dining started back in 2005 so that was the same as pre recession. Disney has NEVER reduced ticket prices so they were higher than pre-recession. That only leaves the resort cost, and we were staying at POP, a value resort which doesn't have a lot of room to discount.

Keep in mind that even in the peak of the recession (2010) 9 out of 10 in the Americans labor force were still employed. Sure, folks were more scared to spend money due to the recession and uncertainties, higher unemployment, home values dropping, etc... However it doesn't change the fact that it was $3,400 and now it's $8,400 (which is almost double the inflationary value of the dollar in that period.)

My simple point was, the barrier to entry in 2010 for our family of 5 for a week at WDW was $3,400. Now for that same vacation it's around $8,400. Adjusting for inflation, like you said, that $3,400 has the same value today of just over $4,600, yet the cost of that vacation went to $8,400. If I were looking to do our first WDW vacation now, (with a drastically better economy than in 2010), and our kids were were 3-8 yrs old like back then, I don't think I would have dropped that kind of money and we probably never would have visited and got hooked. Disney has FAR outpaced the economy and the value of the dollar. The barrier to entry (cost) for the average family is drastically higher now all things considered. Disney has certainly priced out more and more of the "once in a lifetime" guests. Time will tell if this will strategy of maximizing margins will work, or if it will dry up their target audiences willingness to spend this kind of money.

Dan

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Yeah, 2010 was the height of the recession. However, the cost of a Disney vacation wasn't much different in 2010 than before the recession in 2007. Free Dining started back in 2005 so that was the same as pre recession. Disney has NEVER reduced ticket prices so they were higher than pre-recession. That only leaves the resort cost, and we were staying at POP, a value resort which doesn't have a lot of room to discount.

Keep in mind that even in the peak of the recession (2010) 9 out of 10 in the Americans labor force were still employed. Sure, folks were more scared to spend money due to the recession and uncertainties, higher unemployment, home values dropping, etc... However it doesn't change the fact that it was $3,400 and now it's $8,400 (which is almost double the inflationary value of the dollar in that period.)

My simple point was, the barrier to entry in 2010 for our family of 5 for a week at WDW was $3,400. Now for that same vacation it's around $8,400. Adjusting for inflation, like you said, that $3,400 has the same value today of just over $4,600, yet the cost of that vacation went to $8,400. If I were looking to do our first WDW vacation now, (with a drastically better economy than in 2010), and our kids were were 3-8 yrs old like back then, I don't think I would have dropped that kind of money and we probably never would have visited and got hooked. Disney has FAR outpaced the economy and the value of the dollar. The barrier to entry (cost) for the average family is drastically higher now all things considered. Disney has certainly priced out more and more of the "once in a lifetime" guests. Time will tell if this will strategy of maximizing margins will work, or if it will dry up their target audiences willingness to spend this kind of money.

Dan
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You and me are not on different pages about the cost of Disney rising very high relative to the time. While I appreciate the chart you've given it's been used enough already and is far too simplistic for my tastes (that's a personal thing).

What I was trying to convey was that the timing of trips and comparing that to now is never as easy as spouting figures (especially with a 12 year difference, a great recession and a global pandemic). The base point is "Disney is stupid expensive outpacing inflation by a ton" but the timing and figures is what changes the conversation.

For instance POP and AOA went up in cost due to the skyliner, understandable and expected, but a comparison to before the skyliner would be difficult to compare to today's amount because yes Disney has raised the resort rates (and ticket pricing like none other) other things also happened that raised the basic price being charged. I'm not sure if I've read it explicitly stated but the refurbs on the All-Stars may also impact the room rate so my trip cost from September 2017 is before the All-Stars were getting the huge refresh.

The closer you get to the pandemic in timing the better the overall comparison is to just what decisions on pricing Disney has been doing. As a comparison here on one of the FB groups I'm on for my cruise next year the person said they had an Antarctica cruise booked at $60K for a 2020 date and we know how that went. The cost of that cruise is now $80K. That is a fair comparison to not only the costs of things being up but also how the cruising industry has been impacted by the pandemic. If they were to compare the costs from 2010 to now I'm 1000% positive the costs would be much lower in 2010 than even just before the pandemic.

If we were to look at 2020 well Disney was throwing some good resort discounts once they reopened (I had e-mails for 35% off) because no one was traveling either by not being able to or not wanting to and in 2021 good cruise deals. But as travel and the economy rebounded that reversed very quickly (aside from cruising is still one where deals are to be had in part because interference from CDC is no longer governing the U.S part of the industry but cruising is still struggling with the numbers).

 

[DisneyFive]

You and me are not on different pages about the cost of Disney rising very high relative to the time. While I appreciate the chart you've given it's been used enough already and is far too simplistic for my tastes (that's a personal thing).

What I was trying to convey was that the timing of trips and comparing that to now is never as easy as spouting figures (especially with a 12 year difference, a great recession and a global pandemic). The base point is "Disney is stupid expensive outpacing inflation by a ton" but the timing and figures is what changes the conversation.

For instance POP and AOA went up in cost due to the skyliner, understandable and expected, but a comparison to before the skyliner would be difficult to compare to today's amount because yes Disney has raised the resort rates (and ticket pricing like none other) other things also happened that raised the basic price being charged. I'm not sure if I've read it explicitly stated but the refurbs on the All-Stars may also impact the room rate so my trip cost from September 2017 is before the All-Stars were getting the huge refresh.

The closer you get to the pandemic in timing the better the overall comparison is to just what decisions on pricing Disney has been doing. As a comparison here on one of the FB groups I'm on for my cruise next year the person said they had an Antarctica cruise booked at $60K for a 2020 date and we know how that went. The cost of that cruise is now $80K. That is a fair comparison to not only the costs of things being up but also how the cruising industry has been impacted by the pandemic. If they were to compare the costs from 2010 to now I'm 1000% positive the costs would be much lower in 2010 than even just before the pandemic.

If we were to look at 2020 well Disney was throwing some good resort discounts once they reopened (I had e-mails for 35% off) because no one was traveling either by not being able to or not wanting to and in 2021 good cruise deals. But as travel and the economy rebounded that reversed very quickly (aside from cruising is still one where deals are to be had in part because interference from CDC is no longer governing the U.S part of the industry but cruising is still struggling with the numbers).

Yeah, lots of confounding variables for sure. Keeping it simple, the end result for us is that the enjoyment to cost ratio has dropped considerably. We had an amazing vacation this summer (many thanks to G+) so our enjoyment was still relatively high, but it came at a drastically larger hit to our pocket book. It just takes a chunk of the sweetness out of our beloved WDW vacations, and by the same token makes us look around at other options.

Dan

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Yeah, lots of confounding variables for sure. Keeping it simple, the end result for us is that the enjoyment to cost ratio has dropped considerably. We had an amazing vacation this summer (many thanks to G+) so our enjoyment was still relatively high, but it came at a drastically larger hit to our pocket book. It just takes a chunk of the sweetness out of our beloved WDW vacations, and by the same token makes us look around at other options.

Dan

We have a promotional companion pass for Jan-March for SWA and we're looking to see where we want to go. Last year we had one as well for the same time period but Omicron was ravaging the country and my husband switched jobs and couldn't take vacation for all of Feb. so we missed out, I'd like to not miss out this time around although we have 2 other trips planned for next year so it's not like I won't get a vacation.

For the first time (although I said I would consider it back in May after coming back from our WDW/USO trip) I was looking at going to Orlando and just doing Universal only because Universal has a 2 day get 2 days free ticket deal. We have DISer friends in Orlando and we'd love to tour WDW again with them but it's not realistic with the costs, time investment, hassle or stress. USO is at least on the list of possible plans and they have APs to Universal so they can still join us. It's at least an option. I've never gone to Orlando and not done both and while I'd be there missing aspects of Disney I would be very content with the less stress of Universal.

 

[rastuso]

What you're saying makes sense, but I'm not sure I think the percentage of people wanting to buy Genie+ changes that much with crowd fluctuations on a day to day basis. It's hard for anyone to predict what a particular day is going to be like and I would have to assume most Genie+ purchases are early in the day - before it's easy to tell what crowds are actually going to be like.

But of course people will be willing to pay much more at peak times like Thanksgiving. The same reason behind higher prices for everything at peak times. Demand is higher so price can be higher.

I think there is a large group of folks who will buy it regardless. +/- $3 is meaningless in a vacation costing thousands, that isn’t even a bottle of water.

If average standby waits go from 45 to 15, maybe that would impact G+ sales, but the big rides will still be longer. Even if G+ is only going to save you 2 hours of waiting for the day, 3 bucks doesn’t change your decision.

 

[lugnut33]

This isn't right. Demand for theme park admission is elastic. If they raised prices to, say $500 per day for admission, there would be fewer guests. If what you said were right, it would trigger a rethinking of the entire body of research on microeconomics and you would likely be a nobel prize winner.

You don't know Disney fans very well. If they went to $500 per day you'd see an immediate drop in attendance and a huge increase in social media posts talking about how empty the parks are. At that point Disney fans want in on the empty parks and flood back in at even higher numbers. The reality is, Disney won't do a giant increase due to social media backlash. They'll keep doing the 4 - 9% increases year after year and it won't decrease attendance. A recession or depression is about the only thing that will drop attendance.

 

[lugnut33]

How does this jive with getting less people to use it?

I'd guess the same amount of usage happens if it's $15 or $25. Honestly, Disney is leaving money on the table by offering it at $15.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

You don't know Disney fans very well. If they went to $500 per day you'd see an immediate drop in attendance and a huge increase in social media posts talking about how empty the parks are. At that point Disney fans want in on the empty parks and flood back in at even higher numbers. The reality is, Disney won't do a giant increase due to social media backlash. They'll keep doing the 4 - 9% increases year after year and it won't decrease attendance. A recession or depression is about the only thing that will drop attendance.

That's one of the reasons I feel like if they had gone high when they introduced a paid system there would have been anger but the timing would have helped them more with the pandemic in tamping down at least some of that anger, people would have gotten used to it much faster too. With starting at the price they had MP at (when the pandemic hit that is since that originally started at $10) there's no recourse but to inch it up (relatively speaking) and people just get to lament the year over year increasing or really the several months over several months increasing.

I would have been more pleased with Disney and the product had they just had the fortitude to price their product higher.

 

[set88]

That's one of the reasons I feel like if they had gone high when they introduced a paid system there would have been anger but the timing would have helped them more with the pandemic in tamping down at least some of that anger, people would have gotten used to it much faster too. With starting at the price they had MP at (when the pandemic hit that is since that originally started at $10) there's no recourse but to inch it up (relatively speaking) and people just get to lament the year over year increasing or really the several months over several months increasing.

I would have been more pleased with Disney and the product had they just had the fortitude to price their product higher.

I completely agree with you. I think Disney tried to prevent anger by charging less for Genie+ than what they were trying to offer was worth, and now they're trying to gradually increase the price to keep anger to a minimum (which won't work). It would be better if they just came out and said "We've looked at how this is working out and we made a mistake, it needs to be $xxx a day to work properly."

At this point, there's going to be anger no matter what they do with it. People will be understandably angry if they have to pay more but they will also be understandably angry if they buy Genie+ which was oversold to the point it doesn't work very well.

 

[DCLMP]

Yeah, 2010 was the height of the recession. However, the cost of a Disney vacation wasn't much different in 2010 than before the recession in 2007. Free Dining started back in 2005 so that was the same as pre recession. Disney has NEVER reduced ticket prices so they were higher than pre-recession. That only leaves the resort cost, and we were staying at POP, a value resort which doesn't have a lot of room to discount.

Keep in mind that even in the peak of the recession (2010) 9 out of 10 in the Americans labor force were still employed. Sure, folks were more scared to spend money due to the recession and uncertainties, higher unemployment, home values dropping, etc... However it doesn't change the fact that it was $3,400 and now it's $8,400 (which is almost double the inflationary value of the dollar in that period.)

My simple point was, the barrier to entry in 2010 for our family of 5 for a week at WDW was $3,400. Now for that same vacation it's around $8,400. Adjusting for inflation, like you said, that $3,400 has the same value today of just over $4,600, yet the cost of that vacation went to $8,400. If I were looking to do our first WDW vacation now, (with a drastically better economy than in 2010), and our kids were were 3-8 yrs old like back then, I don't think I would have dropped that kind of money and we probably never would have visited and got hooked. Disney has FAR outpaced the economy and the value of the dollar. The barrier to entry (cost) for the average family is drastically higher now all things considered. Disney has certainly priced out more and more of the "once in a lifetime" guests. Time will tell if this will strategy of maximizing margins will work, or if it will dry up their target audiences willingness to spend this kind of money.

Dan
View attachment 713996

Are you sure it's only 8400 for a family of 5? I'm taking my son for a week in January. Just tickets and room is 2400 and that's with three of the nights being free with points at the dolphin. The other four nights I rented points at SSR for way below rack rate price. I figure the trip will cost come close to 4k when all said and done.

A family of five would need two rooms or stay deluxe.,,, and with tickets that cost easily exceed 8400. Our first trip in 2010 was 9 days at Poly with deluxe dining. The cost was 5,100 2 adults and 2 kids. The cost of that same trip is now 13,200 based on DDP prices from 2020. In fairness Disney could off some discounts at poly, but I haven't seen discounts there in a while.

 

[DisneyFive]

Are you sure it's only 8400 for a family of 5? I'm taking my son for a week in January. Just tickets and room is 2400 and that's with three of the nights being free with points at the dolphin. The other four nights I rented points at SSR for way below rack rate price. I figure the trip will cost come close to 4k when all said and done.

A family of five would need two rooms or stay deluxe.,,, and with tickets that cost easily exceed 8400. Our first trip in 2010 was 9 days at Poly with deluxe dining. The cost was 5,100 2 adults and 2 kids. The cost of that same trip is now 13,200 based on DDP prices from 2020. In fairness Disney could off some discounts at poly, but I haven't seen discounts there in a while.

Great question.
To keep things apples to apples, I priced things as if our 3 kids were 3, 6 and 8 years old like they were our first visit in 2010. Pricing the last week of September.

Here’s the breakdown.

• Pop Century Room 1, (1 adult, 2 children) and 8 day base tickets: $3,514
• Pop Century Room 2, (1 adult, 1 child) and 8 day base tickets: $2,913
• G+ (to replace FP): $16 per day per person* 7 days: $560 ($18 per day may be more accurate now)
• Sunshine Flyer to replace DME: $160
• Dining paying OOP: $1,300 (I’m sure this is way low. In 2010 we did character buffets and ordered the more expensive items on the menu because we had the dining plan included. I would guess equivalent today would be more like $2,000 or more but I didn’t want to exaggerate)

That totals to $8,447, but $9,000 or more may be more accurate.

Dan