Breaking News: BLT Units 2A & 2B declared

[bookwormde]

Just for those who are considering buying and trying to justify the potentially higher value, I believe (by an aged memory again) that the filing documents had a projected maintenance fee for somewhere around $3.21 which is well below any of the other resorts.

bookwormde

 

[DebbieB]

Just for those who are considering buying and trying to justify the potentially higher value, I believe (by an aged memory again) that the filing documents had a projected maintenance fee for somewhere around $3.21 which is well below any of the other resorts.

bookwormde

That may not be the entire dues amount. For 2008, BWV's dues are broken down as follows:

Operating Budget $3.3948
Capital Reserves Budget $.7001
Property Tax Estimated $.9453

I can't believe $3.21 would include taxes. They can't possibly operate BLT that much cheaper.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Just for those who are considering buying and trying to justify the potentially higher value, I believe (by an aged memory again) that the filing documents had a projected maintenance fee for somewhere around $3.21 which is well below any of the other resorts.

bookwormde

You know, asking for more money upfront for cost per point vs. lower MF's just seems like Disney is gonna get their money on the front end instead of on the back end. They are hedging that the average contract holder probably will only keep it for an average length of time, lets say 10 yrs. So can someone factor in the true cost over 10 yrs. with paying higher inital cost vs. the savings on the lower MF's? I think we'll be surprised at the break even point.

 

[DebbieB]

You know, asking for more money upfront for cost per point vs. lower MF's just seems like Disney is gonna get their money on the front end instead of on the back end. They are hedging that the average contract holder probably will only keep it for an average length of time, lets say 10 yrs. So can someone factor in the true cost over 10 yrs. with paying higher inital cost vs. the savings on the lower MF's? I think we'll be surprised at the break even point.

I don't think they can manipulate maintenance fees that way. They have to put out an operating budget that balances with the dues charged. That budget is audited.

 

[hakepb]

I don't think they can manipulate maintenance fees that way. They have to put out an operating budget that balances with the dues charged. That budget is audited.

They could build the rooms with easire cleaning, longer lasting materials, but that is about the only way I can think to "front-load" maint fees.
I guess if DVC owned the rooftop restaurants, they could use those profits to off-set maint fees, but I do not think Disney would allow that.

 

[SuzanneSLO]

Just for those who are considering buying and trying to justify the potentially higher value, I believe (by an aged memory again) that the filing documents had a projected maintenance fee for somewhere around $3.21 which is well below any of the other resorts.

bookwormde

The MF per point will probably be lower because there are so many points sharing the cost and taxes. There are roughly 5,000,000 points sold at BWV for 383 rooms. If the points per night at BLT is 10% higher, then even with the same number of rooms, there would be 5,500,000 points sharing the cost of operating and capital reserves. So if the operating budget is the same for each resort (let's say $17,000,000), the difference woud be $3.40 pp for BWV and $3.04 pp for BLT, a 9% savings. These savings would be further magnified if there are more rooms (and thus, more points) or the operating budget is lower because it is a high rise. -- Suzanne

 

[tjkraz]

Just for those who are considering buying and trying to justify the potentially higher value, I believe (by an aged memory again) that the filing documents had a projected maintenance fee for somewhere around $3.21 which is well below any of the other resorts.

bookwormde

The original estimate was $3.67 per point.

http://dvcnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=354&Itemid=96

That includes all three components of the dues: operating expenses, reserves and taxes.

 

[bookwormde]

Tjkraz

Thanks for finding the accurate number. When I first saw it I shocked that it was over a $1.00 less.

If it goes up at the same rate as other resorts (a bit of an assumption) at say $1.50 less per year for 50 years that is $75 less over the life of the contract.

Now if they charge $36 more per point that is $0.72/yr at 50 years and the extra lost income on extra “investment” costs at average treasury, say 4% is $1.44 on original and using a rough median contract value it would be $0.72/yr for a total of $1.44

Everybody has a different system for calculating this and use different values (especially if you have to finance) but it is easy to see that lower MF has a potential significant offsetting effect on higher purchase price.

I really have no practical interest in the discussion, since they changed the reservation rules, but from a marketing/mathematical view it is interesting.

bookwormde

 

[DebbieB]

I can't locate my 2008 boardwalk budget, but it would be interesting to compare the per point charges for items like Housekeeping or DVC reservation component. You would think they would be close. Since the BLT budget is only for 75 rooms, it would be hard to compare some of the other costs.

Any word on if BLT will have its own check-in?

 

[goldilocks_63]

ummm....

Just keep the member dues low while they are selling....

and move them up when they go to the Poly or GF next.....

GOldi

 

[Budshark]

Just back from a weekend trip to the World. Asked lots of questions on BLT.

It sounds like week of Sept 21 is the date for the announcement. The general concensus we got from multiple kiosk clerks was:

A) There has been communication to the DVC cast members officially notifying them BLT is DVC
B) There is a date for DVC member announcements
C) That date is very very soon. We got one of them to say "It will be sooner than you think, as in "we..." instead of "mon..." but I can't tell you exactly"

So it sounds like before October!

Chris

 

[deanna2426]

WOOHOO

 

[Chuck S]

From reading posts here, there seems to be some glitches in the MS computer system, pulling the wrong amount of points for reservations, etc. I hope they fix that before adding yet another resorts point charts to the data base.

 

[deanna2426]

Once BLT is announced, any ideas on when the prices and point charts will be released?

 

[bookwormde]

Certainly price will be out before they attempt to start selling and would not make any sense not to release the point charts at the same time. I would guess that as soon as the guides are adequately briefed and the proper paperwork is distributed they would start selling.

bookwormde

 

[BuzznBelle'smom]

Man, you guys are getting me excited! We're supposed to be closing on our old house next week, we'll have some spare cash... I'm dying to see what the specifics will be! Whether we'll actually buy will depend on price, minimum buy-in, and incentives (like developers' points).

Does anybody think developers' points might be offered for VAKL rather than SSR this time around? I'm thinking they'll have a lot of space over there next year...

 

[bookwormde]

Whether they have AKV Kidani points available for developer’s points depends on the rate at which AKV sells. Remember DVC started Kidani sales well before the first room will be available. I can see a lot being available for 2010 but I would be surprised if they were any major quantity in 2009. Plus as a new accommodation selling them through CRO may be relatively easy.

bookwormde

 

[keishashadow]

after seeing the market's close today, am @ the point where i am seriously rethinking another buyin

not the best week to be announcing a TS imo

wondering re all the doom & gloom re tightening credit, where does that put DVC & financing...or do they do their own 'in house'

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I'm sure Disney did not see this coming! Nor did Wall Street! A very, very bad day today, of historical proportions. And it is not over yet. Disney will have to offer incentives.......credit is tight. It will affect their sales...don't expect BLT to have the "sell out" some were thinking might happen.

 

[tjkraz]

I'm sure Disney did not see this coming! Nor did Wall Street! A very, very bad day today, of historical proportions. And it is not over yet. Disney will have to offer incentives.......credit is tight. It will affect their sales...don't expect BLT to have the "sell out" some were thinking might happen.

Time will tell, but knee-jerk reactions typically aren't a given in the corporate world. Back in 2001, DVC sent out a press release for Eagle Pines about 3 weeks after 9/11. It was only in the weeks and months following that management was forced to accept that things wouldn't bounce back quickly. Hard telling what will happen following this shake-up. It has been less than 24 hours.

I don't see any real benefit to Disney altering their course at this late date. Worst-case they may have to adjust pricing (greater incentives) in a few months if sales lag behind expectations.

Regardless of the price there will be people lining up to buy on Day One. Might as well make as much as possible from those sales and adjust to demand slowly over time.