Box Office Discussion

[TwoMisfits]

I am getting more and more excited about Pete's Dragon. This one may be harder for me to find other friends that want to see it. Most Disney movies is never really problem. Especially, Marvel, Star Wars and Pixar. To the casual movie goer, Pete's Dragon doesn't bring a lot of appeal. That is just what I gather from the young professional demographic.

8/12 - 8/14 Weekend Box Office Prediction
1. Suicide Squad - $51MM
2. Pete's Dragon - $28MM
3. Sausage Party - $22MM
4. Jason Bourne - $12MM
5. Bad Moms - $8MM

I have yet to see Suicide Squad. I was kind of excited to see it earlier in the year. Bvs kind of held me back. Then the reviews and reception has held me back a lot. It is unfortunate. I feel like the DC Cinematic Universe is being rushed. They should have released a stand alone Batman movie before, so BvS didn't have to have a background story for this version of Batman. I think then Dawn of Justice could have dropped Batman v Superman from the name. A stand alone Joker and Harley Quinn movie would have been awesome to set up Suicide Squad. They have the stand alone Wonder Woman coming out before Justice League. I just feel like the franchise is being rushed. Just my thoughts.

Pete's Dragon has a chance to exceed expectations. Really the only new family movie on the market. It could feed off some nostalgic fans. But the original Pete's Dragon doesn't have the biggest following. This movie can go anyway in the box office. Although in the top 5 that I have, it is probably the best quality movie.

Sausage Party could exceed too. Rotten Tomatoes is giving this fairly good reviews. However, youtube critics have been fairly disappointed because they had high expectations of the movie to be extremely funny.

Sausage will be at least $32M after having a $3.25M Thursday. Since it's taking the young male audience, Suicide will likely not break $50M and be high 40s at best...

 

[Goofy2015]

Sausage Party is a wild card. It feel like it has the most range on it's box office for the weekend. The only thing that could hold it back is just being rated R.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

Sausage Party is a wild card. It feel like it has the most range on it's box office for the weekend. The only thing that could hold it back is just being rated R.

I agree that it is a wild card. While some are definitely turned off by it's content or R rating, that has also made it more appealing to others (even just for the fact that it caused such a stir/headlines when it was shown as a preview for that G rated animated movie earlier this summer). But what I wonder, will they take a hit at all from their target audience of whom have yet to see Suicide Squad this weekend. Suicide Squad will definitely have a huge drop this weekend, but it might steal some of the potential viewers from Sausage Party in my opinion...just a matter of how much. I think the better Suicide does the worse Sausage party will do. If Suicide squad has less than a 60% drop it will hurt the Sausage party numbers...imo

 

[Budshark]

(3) Will finding Dory get to $1 Billion worldwide

I find this one a lot more interesting. Dory is still making a good bit of money in several countries. It also has 10 countries it hasn't release in yet. It is also still making a good amount of money in Japan and UK, and should make around $16 million more domestically at least (and if it has the staying power like Zootopia towards the end of its run it could make quite a bit more than that and still challenge for the $500,000 mark). As of August 7th worldwide it had made $871.3 million. If you add in the $16 million domestic, which is a very reasonable number compared to what it still could make, that's $887 million. It is still early with Japan too. Through 3 weeks in Japan it's numbers are above where Zootopia was at, and only 2 million off of where Finding Nemo was at as it gets into their prime movie season. But it will be hurt by the competition (Jungle Book and Pets) in Japan. Regardless, Zootopia made an additional $42 million after week 3 (and we already said it was doing better than Zootopia) and Finding Nemo made an additional $69 million, and Finding Dory is doing close to the same pace. With the competition it won't be able to match Finding Nemo, but it certainly should exceed the $40 Million of Zootopia. So let's just go with $35 million to be cautious. That puts it at $922 million. UK is also similar to Japan. it typically has smaller drops week to week, and decent week numbers before the weekend. Finding Dory has nearly identical numbers to Finding Nemo after 2 weekends (10 release days). Finding Nemo was at $27.1 million, Finding Nemo was at $26.4 million. It is well ahead of the numbers for Zootopia. What finding Dory doesn't have to compete with is Secret Life of Pets - that released back in June. So what life does Finding Dory have in UK. Well after Day 10 Zootopia made 16 million, and Finding Nemo made 40 million. It certainly will make more than Zootopia, but let's be conservative and not put it near the Finding Nemo numbers even though it is tracking right with them. Let's go with 28 million more which seems relatively conservative. Now Dory is at $950 million.

So what countries does Finding Dory have left spread out over just over a month? Lithuania, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweeden, Greece, Turkey, Italy, Austria, and Germany. All it needs is $50 million. Finding Nemo made $53.9 million in Germany. Overall Finding Nemo made over $100 million in these countries, while Zootopia made $68.1 million. Jungle Book has outperformed Zootopia in nearly every country (except China interestingly enough). So it seems like $50 million should be in its grasp. Also a note - Finding Dory is not done in quite a few other countries, and will make some money there. I can't pinpoint exactly but it will be several million cumulative.

We've discussed in other threads, but I do believe you are too bullish on Dory. It drops to under 1,000 theaters in US yesterday, and was already making less than $500k/day. This will drop considerably this weekend, especially with Secret Life of Pets and Pete's Dragon as competition. Last weekend was a sub $2M run, this weekend will be sub-$1.5M probably pushing closer to $1M. Unlikely to even pass $10M domestic in additional inflow Aug 8 forward. Overseas, especially Europe, markets have been very weak this year. Germany is having one of its weakest years ever, France has performed poorly, and UK doesn't have a >$75M movie yet. Need to account all that in as well. I think your UK, Japan, and Germany numbers are a fair bit high. It's close, but likely Jungle Book numbers. I think the real measure is does Dory get to #3 or settle for #4 YTD.

What is throwing the Dory numbers off, is for some reason, Domestic release was phenomenal. Just the right time/mix. US receipts are up 4%, and Dory is the #1 movie. In no other market (except Australia) is Dory #1, or close to #1. Its also not expected to get there in UK, Germany, or Japan.

Anyhow, as we've done for the past 2 months, my prediction is sub $950Million for Dory. As with any Disney movie, I'm a proponent of beating the projections, and maybe it'll surprise in Germany and/or have legs in UK or Japan, and beat $1Billion... but I think it'll stretch and be neck and neck with Jungle Book for #3.

P.S. As always, receipts from overseas lag in the mid to smaller markets. So its already above BvS even though officially they are close to tied. There might be $10M laying on the table that isn't accounted for yet. By all measures, Dory is a success. The $950 vs $1B game is just interesting... in the end its less than a 5% swing and $50M is neither here nor there. It'll pick it up at some point in the future and cross $1B in a summer re-release, just as Jungle Book will.

 

[Goofy2015]

We've discussed in other threads, but I do believe you are too bullish on Dory. It drops to under 1,000 theaters in US yesterday, and was already making less than $500k/day. This will drop considerably this weekend, especially with Secret Life of Pets and Pete's Dragon as competition. Last weekend was a sub $2M run, this weekend will be sub-$1.5M probably pushing closer to $1M. Unlikely to even pass $10M domestic in additional inflow Aug 8 forward. Overseas, especially Europe, markets have been very weak this year. Germany is having one of its weakest years ever, France has performed poorly, and UK doesn't have a >$75M movie yet. Need to account all that in as well. I think your UK, Japan, and Germany numbers are a fair bit high. It's close, but likely Jungle Book numbers. I think the real measure is does Dory get to #3 or settle for #4 YTD.

What is throwing the Dory numbers off, is for some reason, Domestic release was phenomenal. Just the right time/mix. US receipts are up 4%, and Dory is the #1 movie. In no other market (except Australia) is Dory #1, or close to #1. Its also not expected to get there in UK, Germany, or Japan.

Anyhow, as we've done for the past 2 months, my prediction is sub $950Million for Dory. As with any Disney movie, I'm a proponent of beating the projections, and maybe it'll surprise in Germany and/or have legs in UK or Japan, and beat $1Billion... but I think it'll stretch and be neck and neck with Jungle Book for #3.

P.S. As always, receipts from overseas lag in the mid to smaller markets. So its already above BvS even though officially they are close to tied. There might be $10M laying on the table that isn't accounted for yet. By all measures, Dory is a success. The $950 vs $1B game is just interesting... in the end its less than a 5% swing and $50M is neither here nor there. It'll pick it up at some point in the future and cross $1B in a summer re-release, just as Jungle Book will.

It isn't much but most years. The big summer Pixar movie will get an increased theater increase on Labor Day weekend, as a 'Last Time To See It In Theaters'. Like last year, Inside Out made around $4.5MM over labor day weekend. Again, it isn't a big boost. But, it will help it out a little bit.

 

[OnSpaceshipEarth]

Pete's Dragon to barely make 7 million today for a 21 million weekend.

Disney's third boxoffice flop of the summer.

Ouch!

 

[TwoMisfits]

Pete's Dragon to barely make 7 million today for a 21 million weekend.

Disney's third boxoffice flop of the summer.

Ouch!

Spring and Dory saved their year - this is their 3rd misfire of 4 films (Alice, BFG, and now Pete) and each probably was a $100M+ loser...their movie division has lost their buffer for the rest of the year and probably needs Rogue One and Moana to pull them back into the strong black...

 

[rteetz]

Pete's Dragon to barely make 7 million today for a 21 million weekend.

Disney's third boxoffice flop of the summer.

Ouch!

That sucks. The weekend isn't over yet though maybe it will go up a bit. I still want to see it.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

Pete's Dragon to barely make 7 million today for a 21 million weekend.

Disney's third boxoffice flop of the summer.

Ouch!

Where are you getting that number from?!?

 

[TwoMisfits]

Where are you getting that number from?!?

Most sites are reporting it as an estimate - you can hit deadline (that's my favorite) to see it...

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

We've discussed in other threads, but I do believe you are too bullish on Dory. It drops to under 1,000 theaters in US yesterday, and was already making less than $500k/day. This will drop considerably this weekend, especially with Secret Life of Pets and Pete's Dragon as competition. Last weekend was a sub $2M run, this weekend will be sub-$1.5M probably pushing closer to $1M. Unlikely to even pass $10M domestic in additional inflow Aug 8 forward. Overseas, especially Europe, markets have been very weak this year. Germany is having one of its weakest years ever, France has performed poorly, and UK doesn't have a >$75M movie yet. Need to account all that in as well. I think your UK, Japan, and Germany numbers are a fair bit high. It's close, but likely Jungle Book numbers. I think the real measure is does Dory get to #3 or settle for #4 YTD.

What is throwing the Dory numbers off, is for some reason, Domestic release was phenomenal. Just the right time/mix. US receipts are up 4%, and Dory is the #1 movie. In no other market (except Australia) is Dory #1, or close to #1. Its also not expected to get there in UK, Germany, or Japan.

Anyhow, as we've done for the past 2 months, my prediction is sub $950Million for Dory. As with any Disney movie, I'm a proponent of beating the projections, and maybe it'll surprise in Germany and/or have legs in UK or Japan, and beat $1Billion... but I think it'll stretch and be neck and neck with Jungle Book for #3.

P.S. As always, receipts from overseas lag in the mid to smaller markets. So its already above BvS even though officially they are close to tied. There might be $10M laying on the table that isn't accounted for yet. By all measures, Dory is a success. The $950 vs $1B game is just interesting... in the end its less than a 5% swing and $50M is neither here nor there. It'll pick it up at some point in the future and cross $1B in a summer re-release, just as Jungle Book will.

As always you can make numbers say anything you want. Your numbers say one thing and mine say another. Only time will tell, but it will take over a month to actually find out result, and these predictions will be long forgotten by then. But your right, 50 million can be pickup or lost very easily when you consider it all

One thing is clear, it won't be very long till jungle book passes Deadpool domestically

 

[TwoMisfits]

As always you can make numbers say anything you want. Your numbers say one thing and mine say another. Only time will tell, but it will take over a month to actually find out result, and these predictions will be long forgotten by then. But your right, 50 million can be pickup or lost very easily when you consider it all

One thing is clear, it won't be very long till jungle book passes Deadpool domestically

Yes, but now it looks like (after this weekend's hold), Pets will pass both before the end of its run for #3...Pets only dropped 19% and will be at $336M+ after this weekend with a $9.4M weekend...

 

[ChloesDaddy]

We've discussed in other threads, but I do believe you are too bullish on Dory. It drops to under 1,000 theaters in US yesterday, and was already making less than $500k/day. This will drop considerably this weekend, especially with Secret Life of Pets and Pete's Dragon as competition. Last weekend was a sub $2M run, this weekend will be sub-$1.5M probably pushing closer to $1M. Unlikely to even pass $10M domestic in additional inflow Aug 8 forward. Overseas, especially Europe, markets have been very weak this year. Germany is having one of its weakest years ever, France has performed poorly, and UK doesn't have a >$75M movie yet. Need to account all that in as well. I think your UK, Japan, and Germany numbers are a fair bit high. It's close, but likely Jungle Book numbers. I think the real measure is does Dory get to #3 or settle for #4 YTD.

What is throwing the Dory numbers off, is for some reason, Domestic release was phenomenal. Just the right time/mix. US receipts are up 4%, and Dory is the #1 movie. In no other market (except Australia) is Dory #1, or close to #1. Its also not expected to get there in UK, Germany, or Japan.

Anyhow, as we've done for the past 2 months, my prediction is sub $950Million for Dory. As with any Disney movie, I'm a proponent of beating the projections, and maybe it'll surprise in Germany and/or have legs in UK or Japan, and beat $1Billion... but I think it'll stretch and be neck and neck with Jungle Book for #3.

P.S. As always, receipts from overseas lag in the mid to smaller markets. So its already above BvS even though officially they are close to tied. There might be $10M laying on the table that isn't accounted for yet. By all measures, Dory is a success. The $950 vs $1B game is just interesting... in the end its less than a 5% swing and $50M is neither here nor there. It'll pick it up at some point in the future and cross $1B in a summer re-release, just as Jungle Book will.

I agee that the sluggishness in Europe outside the UK is the big drag, but I think it could still get to $1B. Germany's take for recent animated movies has either fallen short or only slightly exceeded the take in France. The big recent exception to this was Minions, where it made around 50% more in Germany than France. Toy Story 3 only did $17MM in Germany compared to $40MM in France.

Dory is pretty much done in France at $20MM. That's probably the best that could be expected in Germany, probably less. Italy did about half of what France did for both Nemo and TS3, so another $10MM there. Dory is tracking Nemo in the UK, so it may have another $30-40MM there. If there's another $5MM from other European countries that's $65-75MM remaining in Europe. That gets it to $950-960. There may be $5MM more left domestically, so that puts it around $955-965.

That brings us to Japan. Nemo did $102MM. TS3 did $127MM. Monsters U did $90MM in a July release. MU was at $47MM at week 4. Dory is at $41MM. Based on MU it may end up around $80MM, which is $40MM remaining. That would get it to ~$1B. I don't think it will easily get there, but there's a decent chance.

Note: I'm staring from current totals on boxofficemojo, which stands at $475MM domestic and $887MM worldwide.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

That sucks. The weekend isn't over yet though maybe it will go up a bit. I still want to see it.

I was thinking of taking the kids to see it but afraid opening seen will be too much/too scary for them and then they will be done for the rest of the movie

 

[rteetz]

I was thinking of taking the kids to see it but afraid opening seen will be too much/too scary for them and then they will be done for the rest of the movie

I've heard good things about the movie. I can't imagine it would be that scary.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I've heard good things about the movie. I can't imagine it would be that scary.

Reviews I read says it starts with pretty intense scene in which the boy's parents die/how he got in the woods

My kids are funny in that any conflict/drama scares them (they thought Frozen was scary) but then love roller coasters (Everest is my daughter's favorite ride)

 

[rteetz]

Reviews I read says it starts with pretty intense scene in which the boy's parents die/how he got in the woods

My kids are funny in that any conflict/drama scares them (they thought Frozen was scary) but then love roller coasters (Everest is my daughter's favorite ride)

Ok. It's up to you then I would say on how intense you think they can handle. I think that goes for any movie you know your kids best. I'm hoping to see it sometime within the next few days.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

looks like a pretty rough start for Pete's Dragon - only $21.5m. Sausage Party definitely performed well.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Numbers)
1. Suicide Squad – $43.8 million ($222.9 million total)
2. Sausage Party – $33.6 million ($33.6 million total)
3. Pete’s Dragon – $21.5 million ($21.5 million total)
4. Jason Bourne – $13.6 million ($126.8 million total)
5. Bad Moms – $11.5 million ($71.5 million total)
6. Secret Life of Pets – $8.8 million ($335.9 million total)
7. Star Trek Beyond – $6.8 million ($139.7 million total)
8. Florence Foster Jenkins – $6.6 million ($6.6 million total)
9. Nine Lives – $3.5 million ($13.6 million total)
10. Lights Out – $3.2 million ($61.1 million total)

 

[kcbonnies]

Pete's was a great film. The opening scene is done very well. Many little kids and no one seemed to upset by it. My 8 year old loved and big applause at the end.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

Apparently Box Office Mojo won't have a preview article this week, the week that Pete's Dragon comes out. I always look forward to those articles, especially with a Disney movie coming out.

It seems my prediction for Pete's Dragon is going to be off the mark though. Most of the articles I can find that are making long term predictions for Pete's Dragon have it making between 30-33 million this weekend, and a total of around $117 million overall domestically. I am hopeful it does better, but it doesn't seem realistic for it to make $200 million

There are a couple other big questions for Disney movies. I know a couple of people on here don't think either has a chance at all, but by the numbers it looks like it is going to be really close. For those that like numbers maybe you will enjoy this, but maybe not...

(1) Will Jungle Book get to $1 Billion worldwide.

Currently Jungle book is just about at $941.2 million. On Thursday they open in their final country - Japan. While they will still make a marginal amount in other countries and domestically, essentially it will need 58-59 million in Japan. To look deeper, let's look how the other Disney Live action remakes did. I think you can throw out Alice (which made 133.6 million in Japan) as it is extremely unlikely that the Jungle book will be as popular as Alice was in Japan. You can also throw out the Great and Powerful Oz (18.8 million in Japan) as it is extremely likely that Japan will be drawn to the Jungle book more (Oz was not very popular in the other Asian Countries, making less in every Asian Country compared to nearly every Disney Live Action Movie, including the Jungle book, where it has already made nearly $200 million more in the Asian Countries having made significantly more in every Asian Country than Oz). So the best two comparisons are Maleficent and Cinderella. Maleficent made $63.2 million in Japan while Cinderella made $47.1 million. Well Jungle Book did easily outperform Maleficent and Cinderella in the Asian Countries, but two countries maybe should be removed from this consideration. India obviously loved Jungle Book for obvious reasons, so the numbers are astronomical there compared to the others. I also took out China where it made $150 million (Maleficent, Cinderella and Oz combined for 92 million). So if you remove China and India, the Jungle Book still outperformed both Maleficent and Cinderella in the Asian Countries. It's going to make more than Cinderella, but can it keep up the trend in the Asian Countries and outperform Maleficent this long after coming out. It will also have more competition, and not just from the Olympics. Also releasing in Japan this week is Secret Life of Pets and X-men Apocalpyse, as well as a limited release of Ghostbusters (as well as 5 other movies). But it is important to note that this month is the best month of the year for the box office in Japan, it is the only month that schools are all out.

One note - Japan is not like the US in how their box office numbers go. They have a much better staying power. Movies will not have big drops from week to week, and it actually makes a good bit of money mid week as well. Take Finding Dory for example. Finding Dory's 3rd weekend in Japan (July29-31) was nearly identical to it's second weekend (Weekend 2 - $4.5m, Weekend 3 - $4.3m). Zootopia made more money in Weekend 4 then weekend 3, the list goes on and on. So it will start slow but just keep going.

(2) Will the Jungle Book catch Deadpool

This one will be close. After yesterday, the Jungle book will be less than $400,000 from Deadpool. It made $517,355 last week, but should see closer to a 30% loss this week which is higher than it had been losing. I think Disney will keep it in theaters long enough to break it. In fact, based on its current tracking, it might do it in 2 weeks. this will stay in theaters till the end of August at least, but it will really see insignificant returns in September (note - Zootopia just ended its box office run today! it made over $3 million dollars in the us box office AFTER its release to DVD/Blu-ray...maybe I need to reconsider how much Jungle Book will make domestically...hmm)

(3) Will finding Dory get to $1 Billion worldwide

I find this one a lot more interesting. Dory is still making a good bit of money in several countries. It also has 10 countries it hasn't release in yet. It is also still making a good amount of money in Japan and UK, and should make around $16 million more domestically at least (and if it has the staying power like Zootopia towards the end of its run it could make quite a bit more than that and still challenge for the $500,000 mark). As of August 7th worldwide it had made $871.3 million. If you add in the $16 million domestic, which is a very reasonable number compared to what it still could make, that's $887 million. It is still early with Japan too. Through 3 weeks in Japan it's numbers are above where Zootopia was at, and only 2 million off of where Finding Nemo was at as it gets into their prime movie season. But it will be hurt by the competition (Jungle Book and Pets) in Japan. Regardless, Zootopia made an additional $42 million after week 3 (and we already said it was doing better than Zootopia) and Finding Nemo made an additional $69 million, and Finding Dory is doing close to the same pace. With the competition it won't be able to match Finding Nemo, but it certainly should exceed the $40 Million of Zootopia. So let's just go with $35 million to be cautious. That puts it at $922 million. UK is also similar to Japan. it typically has smaller drops week to week, and decent week numbers before the weekend. Finding Dory has nearly identical numbers to Finding Nemo after 2 weekends (10 release days). Finding Nemo was at $27.1 million, Finding Nemo was at $26.4 million. It is well ahead of the numbers for Zootopia. What finding Dory doesn't have to compete with is Secret Life of Pets - that released back in June. So what life does Finding Dory have in UK. Well after Day 10 Zootopia made 16 million, and Finding Nemo made 40 million. It certainly will make more than Zootopia, but let's be conservative and not put it near the Finding Nemo numbers even though it is tracking right with them. Let's go with 28 million more which seems relatively conservative. Now Dory is at $950 million.

So what countries does Finding Dory have left spread out over just over a month? Lithuania, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweeden, Greece, Turkey, Italy, Austria, and Germany. All it needs is $50 million. Finding Nemo made $53.9 million in Germany. Overall Finding Nemo made over $100 million in these countries, while Zootopia made $68.1 million. Jungle Book has outperformed Zootopia in nearly every country (except China interestingly enough). So it seems like $50 million should be in its grasp. Also a note - Finding Dory is not done in quite a few other countries, and will make some money there. I can't pinpoint exactly but it will be several million cumulative.

My prediction:

All there of these are accomplished. The odd release schedule has made it a much slower build, but each of these movies still is on target to beat the marks. Of course no movie will do well in every country, but overall it seems both movies will have enough gas to get to $1 billion and Jungle Book will have enough to pass Deadpool. But you never know for sure... (yes, I love numbers...too much I am afraid)

Now go out and watch Pete's Dragon. It derserves a better box office then it will likely get.

(3) Still a long ways to go...but Finding Dory continues to trend well in UK and Japan. In the UK, it has already made more than Zootopia. It is tracking very similar to Finding Nemo, which made 30 million more from this point in the cycle on. I would expect less from Finding Dory due to competition, but still expect between 10 to 20 million more there. In Japan, it is well ahead of the pace Zootopia had and very similar to the pace of Finding Nemo. I just can't imagine it can have the same legs that Finding Nemo had in the UK, it made an additional 55 million in the UK AFTER 4 weeks. Zootopia made 26 million after 4 weeks, and Finding Dory still is ahead per week vs Zootopia (Zootopia made 6.4 million, Finding Dory made 10.3 million) so I would expect something similar in Japan from Finding Dory, maybe around 30 million more. 11 countries still to be released in, and at 900 million currently.

(1) Jungle Book made around 6 million in Japan for the first weekend. That is ahead of Zootopia's opening weekend by a good bit, and just behind Finding Dory. Zootopia made 70 million, and Finding Dory made 41 million after just 4 weeks (week 5 numbers for Japan haven't been released yet). it currently sits at 947.5 million, so it would need 52 million more from Japan which seems right around par. Will be close

(2) Jungle Book Domestically is just $81,236 shy of Deadpool as of Sunday. It will pass Deadpool before the weekend.