The AP rate will usually beat the % off bounceback deals. I'd go ahead and book it though, just in case AP discounts don't come out during the time you're looking for. That's what I did last month. When I was there Dec 12th-20th I booked the 35% bounceback at moderates for CSR in May. In order to get it and the
DDP I had to buy a one day park ticket I didn't need. About 1 1/2 weeks after we got back, the AP discounts were announced. The discount at moderates was 35%, plus I didn't have to buy that one day park ticket I didn't need (since AP holders can get the DDP without having to buy park tickets--unless it's
free dining or the bounceback % off offers). The AP discount only saved me $165.00 over the bounceback, but every bit helps.

It just costs the $200.00 deposit to book the bouncebacks, so I'd go ahead and do it and then if a better deal comes out, Disney will easily transfer or refund your money as long as you do it at least 45 days prior to your trip.
I did three different bounceback deals when I was there last month for 2010 (May, Oct, and Dec). If an AP or PIN code can beat the 35% off moderates that I have right now, then I'll be switching all three of them, but at least I know I have
some kind of discount for all the trips. You know what they say about a bird in the hand being worth more than a bird in the bush. Hey, I also booked a free dining bounceback when I was there last Sept/Oct for Sept/Oct 2010. I'll probably either be canceling or moving my dates up on that one too, but will wait awhile and see what happens. The good thing with the bounceback deals are that you can always switch resorts or move the dates around later (as long as it still falls within the dates of the orginal offer and that resort has openings). I've already switched the dates a little for both bounceback deals in Sept and Oct and switched resorts for my upcoming May trip. As long as you book something while you are down there, you can always play around with them once you get home and cancel them if a better deal comes out. That's also what I did with my trip last Sept/Oct. I had booked the free dining bounceback when I was there in 2008. Once I got home I switched from AS Music to CSR. Then my husband decided not to go, so the AP discount round up being a better deal, so I canceled the free dining bounceback and went with the AP discount. WDW just refunded my credit card.