Boardwalk Villas Value as Expiration Date Looms Larger

[rdevans_2000]

I know this is something that no one knows, but I am curious to hear opinions. We own 220 points at BWV, a DVC contract with less than 19 years left. How long before buyers begin to expect a discount off the resale price considering the 2042 expiration date? I don't see the prices being effected at all presently, and I suspect that will be the case for several more years. But... once we hit the 15 year mark? Hmmm....

THANKS ALL

 

[CarolynFH]

It seems to me that people here on DISboards have been predicting for the last ten years that resale for the 2042 resorts will begin dropping any minute ! But the lack of ROFR this year seems to have correlated with significant decreases in resale price, especially for BWV, and I’m thinking that even if DVD starts taking contracts back, the 2042s might not rebound like the other resorts will.

 

[rdevans_2000]

It seems to me that people here on DISboards have been predicting for the last ten years that resale for the 2042 resorts will begin dropping any minute ! But the lack of ROFR this year seems to have correlated with significant decreases in resale price, especially for BWV, and I’m thinking that even if DVD starts taking contracts back, the 2042s might not rebound like the other resorts will.

Really good point. I had not though about that. THANKS

 

[kilik64]

I think 10 years left or around there is when they will drop like a rock.

 

[zavandor]

I was wrong before, thought at 25 years left contracts would start to go down, but that didn't happen. Maybe a bit for BRV, certainly not for BCV or BWV. So, I have no idea, the current prices seem already overpriced to me.

 

[Bearval]

It seems to me that people here on DISboards have been predicting for the last ten years that resale for the 2042 resorts will begin dropping any minute ! But the lack of ROFR this year seems to have correlated with significant decreases in resale price, especially for BWV, and I’m thinking that even if DVD starts taking contracts back, the 2042s might not rebound like the other resorts will.

I think the ROFR beast is dead for awhile, at least until RIV, Poly expansion and the GF expansion are close to being sold out. With RIV & GF being priced at $217 direct and as a legacy example BLT at $275. Who is buying a resort with 10+ less years , restrictions and ~ $60 more per point? DVC has set the price point for the legacy resorts to drive you to buy the new ones. They don't need or want to have an inventory of the legacy resorts.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

BWV sells at like a 30% discount to VGF and PVB both of which have far worse point charts, so I’d say….it already has.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I would also add that I think that other than beach club, the 2042 resorts are properly valued vis-a-vis the other resorts in terms of long term ROI.

 

[Sandisw]

My guess is that they will slowly start to decline but agree that the lack of RoFR has certainly caused the floor to go lower for the resorts.

And, just do not see them going back up.

 

[Bearval]

My guess is that they will slowly start to decline but agree that the lack of RoFR has certainly caused the floor to go lower for the resorts.

And, just do not see them going back up.

I believe we are going to see DVC's value behave more like a "true" timeshare in that as the remaining years go down so will the price. The days of it going up in value year after year as the remaining time goes down will pretty much be gone. But then again I may be wrong, I go to work everyday to be right sometimes since I an never right when at home with the wife..............

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Let’s say you owned a BWV contract was 5 years of points left right now. That contract is really easy to value!

You can safely toss inflation or time value of money out the window in this scenario - yes they always matter, but the effect doesn’t have much time to compound, so it’s trivial. We can just straight line it.

How much is it worth? Well, one way to value it would be to compare it to renting. https://dvcrequest.com/dvc-guests/cost-calculator charges $23 per point for BWV. Disney wants ~$8.50 in dues. So the contract is inherently worth $23 x 5 = $115, minus the $8.50 x 5 = $42.5. A grand total of $72.50. Whoever owns it will get roughly $72.50 of value out of it with 5 years left.

And you could argue (incorrectly) that I should deflate that a little for rising dues or (correctly) that time value of money has some impact here, but even at $65, it’s still worth most of what it sells for today.

It may trade a little lower than that, sure. But I see no reason to think people won’t scoop them up, as the value is very, very clear - I get a Disney vacation for the next 5 years at this substantially discounted price vs rack rate.

So I don’t think we’re going to hit a cliff. I think it’s going to continue to slowly decouple from the other resorts.

 

[RoseGold]

I think the 2042s are going to be very attractive as starter contracts.

Plenty of people don't want to drop 40K on a 50 year commitment and 10ish years sounds about right. Combine that with the legacy chart, which will look even cheaper next to whatever comes next, it looks even better.

I think they will hold. I regret not buying BW when it was low.

As they get within a few years left, yea, those are people who have to sell. But I can see a lot of people actively choosing 2042s around 2030ish.

 

[Nursemanit]

I think the 2042s are going to be very attractive as starter contracts.

Plenty of people don't want to drop 40K on a 50 year commitment and 10ish years sounds about right. Combine that with the legacy chart, which will look even cheaper next to whatever comes next, it looks even better.

I think they will hold. I regret not buying BW when it was low.

As they get within a few years, yea, those are people who have to sell. But I can see a lot of people actively choosing 2042s in a few years.

2042 works well for me since that is 2 years past my retirement- I will want some MF to drop off once I retire. My RR will then be my smaller retirement contract for 2 weeks stay.

 

[SheSingsAlong]

I think the 2042s are going to be very attractive as starter contracts.

Plenty of people don't want to drop 40K on a 50 year commitment and 10ish years sounds about right. Combine that with the legacy chart, which will look even cheaper next to whatever comes next, it looks even better.

I think they will hold. I regret not buying BW when it was low.

As they get within a few years left, yea, those are people who have to sell. But I can see a lot of people actively choosing 2042s around 2030ish.

This is exactly why I was not turned off to the 2042 resorts - I *like* that we're only making a 19 year commitment. Granted, you could always buy a longer contract with plans to sell whenever it stops being useful/financially viable, but selling comes with its own headaches and time commitment.

 

[LadybugsMum]

I bought my BWV contracts in the last 2 years knowing that I would just hold on to them through the expiration as I'll be 67 when they expire. I do have a couple of VGF contracts so those are good for much longer, but can still sell those if needed with plenty of time left on the contracts.

 

[808blessing]

There will be many ways to sell or justify Boardwalk in the last 10 years. Point chart & starter contract, baby. If I were a sales person I would throw in a little magic math too. 10 years left, 100 points, 10 points a night- What do you think you would pay for 10 nights a year for 10 years with access to 2 parks (half of your trip) with boat, buses, and skyliner? $10,000? Yes!!! That's like $1000 a year or $100 a stay.


What's that- maintenance? It's just a drop in the - nobody worries about that

 

[BL2020]

While I think there will always be buyers for these properties, there are also those who are steering clear, which will ultimately reduce the demand/price. When we bought our first resale contract in 2020, we just couldn't justify the price of BWV, though they were my preferred location with great point charts. We ended with a BLT contract in the $5-10 dollar a point range above what BWV was going for. Part of our rationale is that we can sell our contract and get what we paid for it, or more, for at least 20 years or around the time BWV will expire.