would say pretty good maybe 50/50
that said some guests have already realized that BLT is a good place for the food/wine festavial at Epcot (if BCV and BWV are booked)
so since you are going when the food/wine festavil - maybe?
would wait (if you can) for 30 days before - because of the 30 days rule - if they have not canceled by then the points will go into holding. So lots of wait list are filled in the last few days