BLT vs. Resale at Other DVC Resorts

[Brownie54]

I have been kicking around the idea of DVC and after six months reading here I have thought that resale would be better for me. I knew MF's would be the largest expense over the life of the contract, but wasn't sure how much. So I took the MF's of BLT, BCV, and VWL and put in a conservative 3% increase. The results surprised me a little. If I were to buy resale at BCV or VWL I would pay mf's of $262.49 or $264.63 per point in the remaining 32 years. In those same 32 years the mf's for BLT would be $192.67 per point. In other words, by the time BCV and VWL expire I would have paid about $70 per point more in mf than BLT and I would still have 18 years left before expiration. This would make BLT a much better choice economically.
Yes, I know most say to buy where you want to stay. That is important. I also know this is assuming the mf's at BLT won't go at a higher rate than others in the future. I thought this was just a different way to look at things.

I will use an example to show how it might look for someone buying 200 points. I will figure $96 a point for BLT(current incentives), $80 for BCV and $70 for VWL.

BLT: $19,200 + $38,534(mf for 32 years) = $57,734

BCV: $16,000 + $52,498(mf for 32 years) = $68,498

VWL: $14,000 + $52,926(mf for 32 years) = $66,926


With the above example there are still 18 years left on BLT. To be fair, BLT cost more points to rent than the other resorts. I'm sure I have left out other information, so feel free to comment. The real Wild Card is the fact that Disney holds pretty much all the cards and can change things at any time.

 

[hellerjw]

The one variable is the BLT MFs. Nobody knows how accurate their intial estimates are when they priced out this first year's MFs. Its possible there won't be any major adjustments and they will increase the average 3-5% that all the other resorts have. However, it is possible the expenses will be more than they think and they will have to do some 10-15% increases in there somewhere.

As you already mentioned the point cost is higher for equivalent units at BLT than the other resorts, which somewhat negates the MF savings if you have to purchase more points to get the same length vacation as VWL, etc.

MFs are the biggest cost over the long term so if that is a big concern for you then BLT might be the best choice. However, if there are things about the other resorts that you prefer over BLT then that should be your deciding factor.

 

[mjfox]

You really need to look at it from a daily use bases. Figure out how many nights your points will get at each resort and then you can compare.

 

[Brownie54]

" As you already mentioned the point cost is higher for equivalent units at BLT than the other resorts, which somewhat negates the MF savings if you have to purchase more points to get the same length vacation as VWL, etc."


This is the part of the equation I couldn't figure out. Care to take a guess of how many extra points would be needed using the 200 point example. It looks to me that it wouldn't be more then a couple points, but looks can be deceiving.

 

[hellerjw]

That would depend on the room category, particularly MK view units, and your travel habits.

For example, in mid-September 2009 (during the lowest point cost "Adventure" season) a 1BR MK-view at BLT for a week is 270 pts, a 1BR at VWL during the same time period is only 200 pts. However, if you take a standard view 1BR unit at BLT during this time period its only 202 pts, only 2 points more than VWL.

The difference is even larger the week of Christmas (during "Premier" season), where its 1BR MK-view BLT @ 468pts vs. 1BR VWL @ 350 pts, a difference of 118 pts!

For me, BLT loses all its luster if I couldn't regularly stay in a MK-view unit. VWL would be my first choice if I had to settle for a BLT lake or standard view.

So, if you must have a MK-view villa you will pay a significantly higher point cost for it vs. the same size unit at VWL. So, if that view is important to you then the higher point requirements would easily outweigh the lower MFs. If however, you were happy to stay in any unit at BLT then the point disparity with other resorts becomes almost negligible as you move from MK-view to Lake View to Standard View.

 

[Brownie54]

That would depend on the room category, particularly MK view units, and your travel habits.

For example, in mid-September 2009 (during the lowest point cost "Adventure" season) a 1BR MK-view at BLT is 270 pts, a 1BR at VWL during the same time period is only 200 pts. However, if you take a standard view 1BR unit at BLT during this time period its only 202 pts, only 2 points more than VWL.

The difference is even larger the week of Christmas (during "Premier" season), where its 1BR MK-view BLT @ 468pts vs. 1BR VWL @ 350 pts, a difference of 118 pts!

For me, BLT loses all its luster if I couldn't regularly stay in a MK-view unit. VWL would be my first choice if I had to settle for a BLT lake or standard view.

So, if you must have a MK-view villa you will pay a significantly higher point cost for it vs. the same size unit at VWL. So, if that view is important to you then the higher point requirements would easily outweigh the lower MFs. If however, you were happy to stay in any unit at BLT then the point disparity with other resorts becomes almost negligible as you move from MK-view to Lake View to Standard View.

Thank you, that makes sense. I think for me I have moved from leaning towards resale to a definate.....undecided. Not a problem as I am still saving my pennies. I don't want to finance, so I will play the waiting game.

 

[Sandisw]

I just bought in to DVC in the last few months. I have been waiting for BLT and decided to become a member once it became a reality. I started out with a VWL contract via resale (50 points--my 2nd choice resort) so that I could add on at BLT come summer.

For me, having a MK view is not all that important. I want to be at BLT so I can walk to/from the park. We have stayed at the Contempoary a lot and have been in the garden rooms and still loved it, even though we couldn't "see" MK.

I ended up so excited about BLT that I am in the process of adding on now and with the new incentives, got a 130 points for almost the same thing I was going to pay a month ago for 115.

Because I am not looking to spend the extra for MK view, it is very comparable to VWL, and in some cases, the same. So much so, that I am now in the process of selling my VWL contract so that I can just have all my points at BLT. I will be much happier and the extra 18 years will more than make up, for me, the extra I will be paying. But I think that "home resort" and it's importance is different for everyone. For me, it is worth more than the cost of the points and I would rather be at BLT for 5 nights than at any other DVC resort for more.

My best advice is go with a decision that will make you the happiest. That is what I did! Good luck!

 

[Crystal_27]

For me, BLT loses all its luster if I couldn't regularly stay in a MK-view unit. VWL would be my first choice if I had to settle for a BLT lake or standard view.

So, if you must have a MK-view villa you will pay a significantly higher point cost for it vs. the same size unit at VWL. So, if that view is important to you then the higher point requirements would easily outweigh the lower MFs. If however, you were happy to stay in any unit at BLT then the point disparity with other resorts becomes almost negligible as you move from MK-view to Lake View to Standard View.

This statement is why DVC is so great for people in that it provides so many options. We are BLT members, but, for me, I could care less if we get a MK view or not, I just love that we'll be on the monorail and walking distance to MK.

To the OP, it definitely sounds like you are really thinking this decision through, which is great. Before we bought, like you, DH and I kicked around the idea of resales but, in the end, I knew that we would want to stay at BLT 90% of the time, so we opted for the higher buy-in. Anyway, best of luck with your decision!

 

[dwelty]

I think MF's should remain fairly low on this property. The biggest factor for keeping Member Fees low is how many points are issued during the sales phase. Due to the high points requirements for this resort, there are alot of points per unit resulting in alot of evental owners for a relatively small resort. (More members sharing the cost). The same holds true for VGC. I also think the building and landscaping are such that fees associated with upkeep will be contained quite well. I think as far as member fees go, BLT would be a good bet. However, when a resort like SSR is seeing stripped resales go for $70.00 per point in some cases accoring to resale brokers I have spoke to recently, there is a good argument for buying there. You still get a long contract, and low member fees as well. I'll bet if you do the calculation using SSR instead of BCV, you will find it holds up quite well against BLT.

 

[hellerjw]

This statement is why DVC is so great for people in that it provides so many options.

Exactly, which is why I qualified my statement with the "For me" part. There is enough variety in the DVC system to appeal to everyone and that is why most advice inevitably includes the remark "buy where YOU want to stay" since opinions vary widely on resort preference.

 

[Brownie54]

I think MF's should remain fairly low on this property. The biggest factor for keeping Member Fees low is how many points are issued during the sales phase. Due to the high points requirements for this resort, there are alot of points per unit resulting in alot of evental owners for a relatively small resort. (More members sharing the cost). The same holds true for VGC. I also think the building and landscaping are such that fees associated with upkeep will be contained quite well. I think as far as member fees go, BLT would be a good bet. However, when a resort like SSR is seeing stripped resales go for $70.00 per point in some cases accoring to resale brokers I have spoke to recently, there is a good argument for buying there. You still get a long contract, and low member fees as well. I'll bet if you do the calculation using SSR instead of BCV, you will find it holds up quite well against BLT.

That makes sense. I'll give it a try. However, SSR contract runs for 44 years placing the expiration between BLT(50 years) and BCV(32 years). I will be generous and say you can buy 200 points at SSR for $66(not imposible IMHO). First I'll figure for the first 32 years to compare with my first post. The mf's would be $45,568(using the same 3% yearly increase). That puts it smack in the middle of BLT and BCV mf's for that time. Because the purchase price is cheaper($13,200), the total is $58,768. BLT is $1,000 cheaper.
Because SSR runs for 44 years, let put in the same numbers for when SSR expires:

SSR: $13,200 + $76,890(mfs for 44 years) = $90,090

BLT: $19,200 + $65,358(mfs for 44 years) = 84,558


So by the time the contract runs out at SSR you would have spent $5,532 more that BLT and there would still be 6 more years left on the BLT contract. This is using a conservative 3% increase in mfs. If we put in 5% it would increase the spread.

I'm not saying everyone would be better off buying BLT. I'm not even sure it would be better for me. The one thing I have learned on this forum is that because of all the variables and different needs of the vacationer, each person has to decide for themselves which is better for them. I do believe that mfs have to be factored in, not just for now, but the entire length of the contract. I think many buyers don't do that. I hope my math makes more people think about it.

 

[Brownie54]

To the OP, it definitely sounds like you are really thinking this decision through, which is great. Before we bought, like you, DH and I kicked around the idea of resales but, in the end, I knew that we would want to stay at BLT 90% of the time, so we opted for the higher buy-in. Anyway, best of luck with your decision!

Thank you for the kind words. With my dd starting college in the fall, I have to budget DVC around that. So I have plenty of time to think DVC through. I may only get a 50 point contract to start. I'm hoping BLT(resale) may become available by this fall. At this point I haven't even seen the rooms at BLT, but will be at Disney this summer so I'll check them out then. Until then, I have DISboards to help me think it all through. Thanks again.

 

[5forDiz]

That makes sense. I'll give it a try. However, SSR contract runs for 44 years placing the expiration between BLT(50 years) and BCV(32 years). I will be generous and say you can buy 200 points at SSR for $66(not imposible IMHO). First I'll figure for the first 32 years to compare with my first post. The mf's would be $45,568(using the same 3% yearly increase). That puts it smack in the middle of BLT and BCV mf's for that time. Because the purchase price is cheaper($13,200), the total is $58,768. BLT is $1,000 cheaper.
Because SSR runs for 44 years, let put in the same numbers for when SSR expires:

SSR: $13,200 + $76,890(mfs for 44 years) = $90,090

BLT: $19,200 + $65,358(mfs for 44 years) = 84,558


So by the time the contract runs out at SSR you would have spent $5,532 more that BLT and there would still be 6 more years left on the BLT contract. This is using a conservative 3% increase in mfs. If we put in 5% it would increase the spread.

I'm not saying everyone would be better off buying BLT. I'm not even sure it would be better for me. The one thing I have learned on this forum is that because of all the variables and different needs of the vacationer, each person has to decide for themselves which is better for them. I do believe that mfs have to be factored in, not just for now, but the entire length of the contract. I think many buyers don't do that. I hope my math makes more people think about it.

I see what you're saying re initial purchase price and MFs - especially important if member plans to keep contract for its entire duration, many will but many may not .

I'm guessing it would also be helpful to factor into the comparison that more points per night are, in most cases (based on villa size/season) going to be needed to stay at BLT over SSR; so # SSR points needed for stay of 7 nights at SSR will often be less (or maybe will always be less) than # of BLT points needed to stay 7 nights at BLT. Comparing point for point may not be as easy to determine as the $ to $. BLT may ultimately still give $ edge but a large part of decision for many who've purchase DVC is that something about a particular DVC resort ' speaks ' to them. It's great that there are so many choices
Enjoy the planning process - it's the beginning but important part of the overall DVC adventure

 

[DisneyWalker44]

You really need to look at it from a daily use bases. Figure out how many nights your points will get at each resort and then you can compare.

That's only a major factor if you only intend to stay in your home resort. Most DVCers stay at lots of different resorts.

I'm just about to purchase an add-on. We bought VGC points (the math at BLT is similar) because we think they will be significantly cheaper over their lifetime than buying resale.

 

[DisneyWalker44]

I see what you're saying re initial purchase price and MFs - especially important if member plans to keep contract for its entire duration, many will but many may not .

For those that don't keep it the whole time, resale value comes into play. I expect BLT/VGC will have greater resale than the existing resorts.

 

[Brownie54]

For those that don't keep it the whole time, resale value comes into play. I expect BLT/VGC will have greater resale than the existing resorts.

I agree. The lower mfs won't hurt either.

 

[Brownie54]

I see what you're saying re initial purchase price and MFs - especially important if member plans to keep contract for its entire duration, many will but many may not .

I'm guessing it would also be helpful to factor into the comparison that more points per night are, in most cases (based on villa size/season) going to be needed to stay at BLT over SSR; so # SSR points needed for stay of 7 nights at SSR will often be less (or maybe will always be less) than # of BLT points needed to stay 7 nights at BLT. Comparing point for point may not be as easy to determine as the $ to $. BLT may ultimately still give $ edge but a large part of decision for many who've purchase DVC is that something about a particular DVC resort ' speaks ' to them. It's great that there are so many choices
Enjoy the planning process - it's the beginning but important part of the overall DVC adventure

This reverts back to the "mantra" I read hear all the time..."Buy where you want to stay the most."
Can't really argue with that either. Sometimes I think it would be great to stay at VWL in early December. I know I would most likely need that to be my home resort for that. But I wouldn't have to go there every year. Perhaps a small contract that I could borrow, bank points to go every two or three years. Maybe do the same thing for a purchase later at BLT, then again at BCV, then again at .......ut-oh, people here warned me about this!

 

[5forDiz]

This reverts back to the "mantra" I read hear all the time..."Buy where you want to stay the most."
Can't really argue with that either. Sometimes I think it would be great to stay at VWL in early December. I know I would most likely need that to be my home resort for that. But I wouldn't have to go there every year. Perhaps a small contract that I could borrow, bank points to go every two or three years. Maybe do the same thing for a purchase later at BLT, then again at BCV, then again at .......ut-oh, people here warned me about this!

LOL ! Yes, the dreaded addonitis !! Your comparison is a good one; the numbers don't lie

( BLT vs SSR ) so I totally agree that is an important consideration