Better to buy resale in Q3 & Q4?

[nvrenoughdisney]

Someone mentioned in another thread (can't remember which one) that it is better to wait and buy during this time? Is this a reliable trend that might be worth waiting for? We are probably looking for between 100-160 additional points, although we haven't decided where we want to add on yet (we currently own at AKV). Would this correspond to the fiscal year used by the government?

• 1st quarter: 1 October 2014 – 31 December 2014
• 2nd quarter: 1 January 2015 – 31 March 2015
• 3rd quarter: 1 April 2015 – 30 June 2015
• 4th quarter: 1 July 2015 – 30 September 2015

Can you tell I'm not in a business related field! I follow an academic calendar instead

Thanks for your help!

 

[pangyal]

I think that prices drop and it becomes a buyer's market the closer it gets to owners having to pay the MFs for the upcoming year. So, 4th quarter would be October- December. The closer to the new year, the more you'll see prices going down or at least becoming more open to negotiation. This may not be the best time to buy for that reason. However- and I need to add that this is purely anecdotal- it did seem like Disney was ROFRing contracts like crazy leading up to January, and then there was a steep decline in buybacks. That may be more of a factor of the Polynesian needing to be focused on, though.

 

[nvrenoughdisney]

That makes sense. I can also see people needing to sell and less wanting to buy during the holiday season.

 

[disneynutz]

Just stay at all of the resorts, decide which one you love and buy there. Trying to time the market won't really buy you much and by then the prices may be up or down, who knows.

Bill

 

[chalee94]

I think that prices drop and it becomes a buyer's market the closer it gets to owners having to pay the MFs for the upcoming year. So, 4th quarter would be October- December.

yeah, this is true of timeshares in general but not so much for DVC...

 

[Breyean]

I think that prices drop and it becomes a buyer's market the closer it gets to owners having to pay the MFs for the upcoming year. So, 4th quarter would be October- December. The closer to the new year, the more you'll see prices going down or at least becoming more open to negotiation. This may not be the best time to buy for that reason. However- and I need to add that this is purely anecdotal- it did seem like Disney was ROFRing contracts like crazy leading up to January, and then there was a steep decline in buybacks. That may be more of a factor of the Polynesian needing to be focused on, though.

I think there's some of this, plus people have done their vacations for the year and if they were planning on selling and wanted to get in that one last trip, the end of a year is usually when that would happen.

 

[pangyal]

yeah, this is true of timeshares in general but not so much for DVC...

There's a graph from one of the resale broker's blogs showing that this is actually the case, with prices for DVC resale dipping down in Q4. I'll see if I can find the link.

 

[pangyal]

http://blog.fidelityresales.com/when-is-the-best-time-to-buy-dvc-resale

These prices should logically be closing/ deed recording dates, so they actually sold in Q4 .

 

[nvrenoughdisney]

Thanks Pangyal! I understand buying where you love to stay, but if I'm not really in a hurry to buy it is something worth considering. I'm not sure if this also translates into more contracts to choose from but that could be helpful as well. I'm looking for a specific use year (December) so more options is always better.

 

[nvrenoughdisney]

Interesting read. Evidence for a trend but certainly a lot of variability, especially between resorts. I agree it is not worth putting off a purchase because of a trend, but something to consider nonetheless.

 

[Friendlyadvice2]

http://blog.fidelityresales.com/when-is-the-best-time-to-buy-dvc-resale

These prices should logically be closing/ deed recording dates, so they actually sold in Q4 .

I could write volumes regarding the information found at that link but I've decided to just be brief and suggest that one be careful on the data they rely on:

First, Fidelity is a very small piece of the DVC resale contract business and the types of contracts they happen to broker can skew the data significantly. Secondly, there are way too many variables in a contract that affect its price/pt. One of the major factors in a contract is whether or not it is loaded. Along with other variables, the data as they presented it does not take that into consideration. Loaded contracts typically sell at a higher price per point than stripped, but will yield a much lower effective price per point because of the extra points available. How many of those contracts allegedly sold in Q4 were stripped/loaded? We have no idea!

If one is looking to purchase a contact, I would not rely on skewed statistics such as these and try to "time" the purchase, but rather suggest that the person compile all of the variables that are important to them and make an offer on that contract when it presents itself; regardless of the time of year.

Also, this company just sold a non-stripped 160 point BC contract about a minute after listing it yesterday at $75/pt (for those that don't know, not at all reflective of current market conditions).......hmmm, I wonder if that will skew the data in a future chart?!

 

[pangyal]

I could write volumes regarding the information found at that link but I've decided to just be brief and suggest that one be careful on the data they rely on:

First, Fidelity is a very small piece of the DVC resale contract business and the types of contracts they happen to broker can skew the data significantly. Secondly, there are way too many variables in a contract that affect its price/pt. One of the major factors in a contract is whether or not it is loaded. Along with other variables, the data as they presented it does not take that into consideration. Loaded contracts typically sell at a higher price per point than stripped, but will yield a much lower effective price per point because of the extra points available. How many of those contracts allegedly sold in Q4 were stripped/loaded? We have no idea!

If one is looking to purchase a contact, I would not rely on skewed statistics such as these and try to "time" the purchase, but rather suggest that the person compile all of the variables that are important to them and make an offer on that contract when it presents itself; regardless of the time of year.

Also, this company just sold a non-stripped 160 point BC contract about a minute after listing it yesterday at $75/pt (for those that don't know, not at all reflective of current market conditions).......hmmm, I wonder if that will skew the data in a future chart?!

Oh, for sure you have to take it with a grain of salt. However, the data on the ROFR thread fully supports the data from that blog post. I've been tracking the prices and they went up around February both this year and last. It may be connected to Disney raising prices on direct, yes, but I think there are more factors at play.

 

[Friendlyadvice2]

Oh, for sure you have to take it with a grain of salt. However, the data on the ROFR thread fully supports the data from that blog post. I've been tracking the prices and they went up around February both this year and last. It may be connected to Disney raising prices on direct, yes, but I think there are more factors at play.

Way more factors at play, none of which were taken into consideration in the crude presention/analysis of that data. I just don't think DVC is like a stock price that you can compare month-to-month or year-to-year. Especially when almost no two DVC contracts are the same....way too many variables in a contract, and in my opinion, seasonality is near the bottom of material variables.

One thing for sure, when it comes to DVC, everybody analyzes things differently. We'll have to agree to disagree. One thing I think we can all agree on however, is that finding the right contract that fits one's variables is a wonderful thing!!

 

[pangyal]

Way more factors at play, none of which were taken into consideration in the crude presention/analysis of that data. I just don't think DVC is like a stock price that you can compare month-to-month or year-to-year. Especially when almost no two DVC contracts are the same....way too many variables in a contract, and in my opinion, seasonality is near the bottom of material variables.

One thing for sure, when it comes to DVC, everybody analyzes things differently. We'll have to agree to disagree. One thing I think we can all agree on however, is that finding the right contract that fits one's variables is a wonderful thing!!

I do agree with this whole-heartedly . On a personal level, I feel like the deal we just found now was almost as good as the one we found back in December, and it definitely feels wonderful!

 

[disneynutz]

Doesn't matter if there is an annual period when DVC resale prices may dip or the number of available contracts increase. If the prices continue to increase as Disney builds new projects and sets higher direct prices, you will pay a higher resale price if you wait.

Bill

 

[supersnoop]

Just keep an eye out and be prepared to act when you see a great deal. I've purchased a 40 point SSR at $68/point and a 25 point BWV at $80/point, both in the last six months. Those prices were below average for a normal contract; they're a steal for such small contracts. You'll do better acting on a great price when it pops up rather than trying to time the market.

 

[Dean]

Someone mentioned in another thread (can't remember which one) that it is better to wait and buy during this time? Is this a reliable trend that might be worth waiting for? We are probably looking for between 100-160 additional points, although we haven't decided where we want to add on yet (we currently own at AKV). Would this correspond to the fiscal year used by the government?

• 1st quarter: 1 October 2014 – 31 December 2014
• 2nd quarter: 1 January 2015 – 31 March 2015
• 3rd quarter: 1 April 2015 – 30 June 2015
• 4th quarter: 1 July 2015 – 30 September 2015

Can you tell I'm not in a business related field! I follow an academic calendar instead

Thanks for your help!

NO, it is not worth waiting strictly hoping for lower prices, esp when you're looking for a smaller contract that may be hard to find anyway. You're a lot better off spending the time looking for the right contract. Basically one that's the right price, number of points, UY and is as loaded as possible. What is worth waiting on is getting educated and getting past the emotions of a possible DVC purchase. IMO these are far more important than getting that next trip on points. Technically prices may go down a little and you might or might not pay a little less on fees but you'll give up potential banked points and time in the current UY, factors that will always overshadow seasonal price fluctuations.

 

[summabreeze85]

Also, this company just sold a non-stripped 160 point BC contract about a minute after listing it yesterday at $75/pt (for those that don't know, not at all reflective of current market conditions).......hmmm, I wonder if that will skew the data in a future chart?!

Did Sharon tell you I snatched it that fast?

Here's to hoping it passes ROFR!