Best time of year to buy

[Pluto777]

I've heard this debated but wanted some thoughts, when do you think the best time of year to buy (not sell) DVC is? I have heard winter time (though I don't know why). Anyone think prices will drop in the winter? increase next summer? Should I hold off buying for a particular season?

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

I've heard this debated but wanted some thoughts, when do you think the best time of year to buy (not sell) DVC is? I have heard winter time (though I don't know why). Anyone think prices will drop in the winter? increase next summer? Should I hold off buying for a particular season?

I would suggest December through March. When people get their dues statements, they have to decide whether to stick around for another year, particularly if they are no longer using it, or are in financial distress. This seems to trigger a lot of contracts coming on the market at that time of year.

 

[CraigInPA]

Typically, there's more availability November through February, as people are looking at their annual maintenance fee bills and decide to sell. Traditionally, there has been a slight (and I mean slight) dip during this period. However, past history is not a guarantee that it'll happen again. Right now, DVC is hot. In the last two years, resale prices have risen 20-30% with the change in the economy and Disney announcing new investments in DHS and AK to create new attractions. There is a possibility that prices will not seasonally drop and, instead, will continue at the present rate or even rise. Based upon the track record of resale prices, I wouldn't "hold off" looking now.

 

[glamdring269]

It's a good questions OP. We're looking to add a contract and I'm shocked by how much prices have risen just over the past few months. Normal expectation would be to see a dip over the next few months but not sure what normal means right now.

 

[kniquy]

Should I hold off buying for a particular season?

As mentioned above DVC prices have risen recently. If by chance the market gets a little more saturated towards the end of the year there will probably not be a significant drop in price per point. The best time to buy is really when you have researched and know what UY you need and the resort and size contract. If you have the cash to buy now and you find exactly what you want just buy.

Say you want an AKL contract -- right now prices vary, but say you find the right April 160 point contract for $95 per point = $15200 (not taking into consideration closing costs). But you wait until December and you only find October contracts and the 160 points are now at $92 per point = $14720. So now you have waited and yes the price is lower but the UY is not right for your travels and you have only saved yourself $480.

So my point is -- find the price you are comfortable paying for the points, UY and resort you want. Prices may continue to increase -- no one really knows. But DVC has been a strong timeshare in retaining some good value.

 

[Simba's Mom]

Gee, whenever I've bought resale, it took so long to find the right contract-right resort, UY, # of points-that the time of year was irrelevant. I remember one time, I started looking in the early spring, but it took us 8 months to find "the right one". In other words, you may not buy when you plan to.

 

[Pluto777]

I also spoke with a broker who said the exact OPPOSITE of what I read on these boards; he recommends summer/fall buying and says prices go higher from Xmas thru spring break. I have NO IDEA if this is true (frankly it doesn't seem right to me), but who knows. I haven't found any hard data to confirm any thesis on best time of year to buy OR sell...

 

[Pluto777]

Gee, whenever I've bought resale, it took so long to find the right contract-right resort, UY, # of points-that the time of year was irrelevant. I remember one time, I started looking in the early spring, but it took us 8 months to find "the right one". In other words, you may not buy when you plan to.

By the way you said "whenever I buy resale" - you mean you have intentionally sought to buy direct?

 

[Ben E N]

By the way you said "whenever I buy resale" - you mean you have intentionally sought to buy direct?

I would assume as direct add on, or for a new resort, such as Poly.

 

[mustinjourney]

honestly -- I think everyone's advice was based on past experience...which I don't think holds up right now. I say this because Disney had not really done any major expansions to the parks since DAK was built. yes, they added new fantasyland -- but that wasn't anything like they have in the works right now.

Also, the stock market is at an all time high, but most importantly, you have Pandora, Toy Storyland, and Star Wars land all opening up. This has resulted in some sellers to likely hold off on selling, while at the same time it has increased demand. So you basically have three different things colliding that all result in increased prices.

Also -- I think the latest announcement of member benefits has led to more people being aware of the resale market, which has led to an increase in pricing. As part of the sales pitch to buy direct, the guides mention that you get membership benefits only if you buy direct. There's probably a good chunk of people that had no idea resale was even an option, so by doing this, the sales guides are actually steering some people towards resales. Law of unintended consequences. This probably only accounts for a small increase though...since it didn't seem to affect prices much last year. The stock market and new lands at Disney are likely the biggest drivers.

In conclusion -- while the cyclical nature of DVC might be true -- waiting for prices to go down due to upcoming maintenance fees would be like waiting for the tide to go down from high to low tide while there is an approaching hurricane. Sure, the tide will go down a few inches, but the storm surge brings in 10 feet.

 

[anitatina]

I also spoke with a broker who said the exact OPPOSITE of what I read on these boards; he recommends summer/fall buying and says prices go higher from Xmas thru spring break. I have NO IDEA if this is true (frankly it doesn't seem right to me), but who knows. I haven't found any hard data to confirm any thesis on best time of year to buy OR sell...

I'm not sure what's true since I'm new to DVC, but if what the broker said is opposite of what the veterans are saying then maybe the broker just wants to sell with higher commission?

 

[Dean]

I've heard this debated but wanted some thoughts, when do you think the best time of year to buy (not sell) DVC is? I have heard winter time (though I don't know why). Anyone think prices will drop in the winter? increase next summer? Should I hold off buying for a particular season?

My opinion is that timing is unreasonable Time to use or rent the points has value as does time to find the right contract. While there might be a few $$$ savings retail if you buy later in the year, it's a minimal difference and the lost time to use the points has value as well as well as the risk of missing UY points, price increases and missing specials. If I had extra time before I needed the points, I'd use it to educate myself if new enough to DVC that the education was needed or to look for a great contract. But I would not delay just hoping prices were $3-5 a point lower in a few months.

 

[Bing Showei]

My opinion is that timing is unreasonable Time to use or rent the points has value as does time to find the right contract. While there might be a few $$$ savings retail if you buy later in the year, it's a minimal difference and the lost time to use the points has value as well as well as the risk of missing UY points, price increases and missing specials. If I had extra time before I needed the points, I'd use it to educate myself if new enough to DVC that the education was needed or to look for a great contract. But I would not delay just hoping prices were $3-5 a point lower in a few months.

I would second what Dean said.

If you're looking to buy in for the first time, figure out where you want to be, which 2-3 UYs fits your travel needs, and what fair rate to you would be (current market rate, historical data trends, financial situation, willingness to wait, immediacy of point needs should all factor in). And then just keep an eye out for a contract that matches that criteria. This is not unlike researching a company you want to invest in. Once you have that well thought-out criteria as a guide for the right contract, just watch for it. If after some time, you find your expectations are unrealistic or you misjudged the market, re-evaluate. But at least you'll have a sensible starting place based on reason.

If you're looking to add on, I would take the first contract you see that suits your needs; primarily UY, resort, size, with cost probably being secondary. This market (especially for small contracts) moves fast. This distribution can also give you a sense for how rare/common your UY will be:

http://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-pr...ar-distribution-charts-updated-september-2015

 

[Dean]

I would second what Dean said.

If you're looking to buy in for the first time, figure out where you want to be, which 2-3 UYs fits your travel needs, and what fair rate to you would be (current market rate, historical data trends, financial situation, willingness to wait, immediacy of point needs should all factor in). And then just keep an eye out for a contract that matches that criteria. This is not unlike researching a company you want to invest in. Once you have that well thought-out criteria as a guide for the right contract, just watch for it. If after some time, you find your expectations are unrealistic or you misjudged the market, re-evaluate. But at least you'll have a sensible starting place based on reason.

If you're looking to add on, I would take the first contract you see that suits your needs; primarily UY, resort, size, with cost probably being secondary. This market (especially for small contracts) moves fast. This distribution can also give you a sense for how rare/common your UY will be:

http://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-pr...ar-distribution-charts-updated-september-2015

I don't think this is what you're suggesting but for clarity, IMO it's almost never (basically never) a good choice to rush around trying to buy to get that next trip on points as a "savings" if it means one doesn't have time to due their due diligence otherwise. It leads to poor choices far too often.

 

[mustinjourney]

I don't think this is what you're suggesting but for clarity, IMO it's almost never (basically never) a good choice to rush around trying to buy to get that next trip on points as a "savings" if it means one doesn't have time to due their due diligence otherwise. It leads to poor choices far too often.

I know you say this a lot -- but one thing to think about is that even if someone makes a poor choice, DVC is not impossible to get out of and the costs of getting out aren't too punitive.

Paying cash to stay on-site is ridiculously expensive. A weeklong stay during adventure season at the grand floridian will run you about $4300 after taxes. A weeklong stay at VGF would be about 150 points. You can get 150 points for about $22000 including closing costs, which means your cost per point is between $12-$14 depending on your person discount rate. This would mean your weeklong stay on points would be about $2000...so by jumping on a contract quickly, you can save at least $2000 in your lodging costs if you can get your next trip using points.

If someone makes a bad choice and needs to get out, they can likely sell the contract for about what they paid for it (assuming they didn't pay top of the market). Yes, they'll have to pay a commission -- 8.5 to 10% So on a $22000 purchase, they'll lose about $2200 in selling it; however, they saved at least $2000 by using the points. So at the end of the day, they're not out a significant amount of money.

So in that scenario, they are risking about $200 on the upside of saving more than $2000. I personally like that risk profile.

Sure, there are other risks involved (e.g., market completely tanks in the interim, loss of a job, etc...). However, these risks are there no matter what, so they are not unique to the decision of buying quickly.

Obviously, everything depends on each person's finances, so if tying up the money for a year would be potentially catastrophic, then it's not the way to go. But if that's the case, buying DVC shouldn't be on the table to begin with.

 

[Dean]

I know you say this a lot -- but one thing to think about is that even if someone makes a poor choice, DVC is not impossible to get out of and the costs of getting out aren't too punitive.

Paying cash to stay on-site is ridiculously expensive. A weeklong stay during adventure season at the grand floridian will run you about $4300 after taxes. A weeklong stay at VGF would be about 150 points. You can get 150 points for about $22000 including closing costs, which means your cost per point is between $12-$14 depending on your person discount rate. This would mean your weeklong stay on points would be about $2000...so by jumping on a contract quickly, you can save at least $2000 in your lodging costs if you can get your next trip using points.

If someone makes a bad choice and needs to get out, they can likely sell the contract for about what they paid for it (assuming they didn't pay top of the market). Yes, they'll have to pay a commission -- 8.5 to 10% So on a $22000 purchase, they'll lose about $2200 in selling it; however, they saved at least $2000 by using the points. So at the end of the day, they're not out a significant amount of money.

So in that scenario, they are risking about $200 on the upside of saving more than $2000. I personally like that risk profile.

Sure, there are other risks involved (e.g., market completely tanks in the interim, loss of a job, etc...). However, these risks are there no matter what, so they are not unique to the decision of buying quickly.

Obviously, everything depends on each person's finances, so if tying up the money for a year would be potentially catastrophic, then it's not the way to go. But if that's the case, buying DVC shouldn't be on the table to begin with.

Plus maintenance fees, aggravation and human nature plus lost earnings on the amount. And it sounds like you didn't add in a discount for the GF stay. IMO this is only secondarily a math issue, the reality is that buying the wrong thing and trying to change to something else is more in the $1000 to 2000 difference on 150 points and it locks you in to choices and out of other choices. And if buying in was a bad choice completely, the cost could be even more But as I've said before, IF you're going to buy in quickly, go low end then adjust later.

 

[mustinjourney]

Plus maintenance fees, aggravation and human nature plus lost earnings on the amount. And it sounds like you didn't add in a discount for the GF stay. IMO this is only secondarily a math issue, the reality is that buying the wrong thing and trying to change to something else is more in the $1000 to 2000 difference on 150 points and it locks you in to choices and out of other choices. And if buying in was a bad choice completely, the cost could be even more But as I've said before, IF you're going to buy in quickly, go low end then adjust later.

I guess I look at it from the perspective of a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

I KNOW if I get the contract to use for my upcoming trip, I'll save $2000. Even using your $2000 amount for potential loss -- that's not guaranteed. So that amount needs to be discounted by the likelihood of it being a mistake. So even if there is a 90% I make a mistake, I'm still better off jumping in early since 2000*1>2000*0.9.

Obviously, I fully agree that you shouldn't just immediately jump in -- but at the same time, I do not think it takes months and months and months of researching and then going to tour all the resorts. That costs a lot of money to do.

In my own experience, I had stayed at POR and GF and knew for sure that I didn't want to stay at moderates again. I knew I wanted a monorail resort, since I wanted to be able to avoid buses going to MK (I have two young daughters). Of the three resorts, VGF was my preferred, and based on availability charts (shout out to @skier_pete), I recognized quickly that owning at VGF was practically a must for us if we wanted to go in December (which we're doing this year).

I looked into DVC on a Sunday and spent the entire week researching everything. I probably spent 40+ hours reading everything i could find and putting together spreadsheets. I started submitting offers that Friday and was under contract the following Sunday.

So for me, personally, I think you can really educate yourself quite quickly now with all this board (and others) has to offer. Now that I've been a member for 18 months, I'm not sure there's much I'd change at this point. The only thing I might do differently is instead of buying a second VGF contract in a different UY, I would probably buy an SSR contract and use that contract to travel during Jan/Feb. But I got that second VGF contract for $123 a point, so it was worth the risk to me.

 

[Dean]

I guess I look at it from the perspective of a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

I KNOW if I get the contract to use for my upcoming trip, I'll save $2000. Even using your $2000 amount for potential loss -- that's not guaranteed. So that amount needs to be discounted by the likelihood of it being a mistake. So even if there is a 90% I make a mistake, I'm still better off jumping in early since 2000*1>2000*0.9.

Obviously, I fully agree that you shouldn't just immediately jump in -- but at the same time, I do not think it takes months and months and months of researching and then going to tour all the resorts. That costs a lot of money to do.

In my own experience, I had stayed at POR and GF and knew for sure that I didn't want to stay at moderates again. I knew I wanted a monorail resort, since I wanted to be able to avoid buses going to MK (I have two young daughters). Of the three resorts, VGF was my preferred, and based on availability charts (shout out to @skier_pete), I recognized quickly that owning at VGF was practically a must for us if we wanted to go in December (which we're doing this year).

I looked into DVC on a Sunday and spent the entire week researching everything. I probably spent 40+ hours reading everything i could find and putting together spreadsheets. I started submitting offers that Friday and was under contract the following Sunday.

So for me, personally, I think you can really educate yourself quite quickly now with all this board (and others) has to offer. Now that I've been a member for 18 months, I'm not sure there's much I'd change at this point. The only thing I might do differently is instead of buying a second VGF contract in a different UY, I would probably buy an SSR contract and use that contract to travel during Jan/Feb. But I got that second VGF contract for $123 a point, so it was worth the risk to me.

Several issues here. Certainly it isn't difficult to investigate the nuts and bolts of DVC but it takes time to get enough experience to make an informed decision and often, to do a rental and/or make a trip and investigate the resorts. While technically there is benefit to moving quickly, there is risk and it's far more than $200 even in the best case. More importantly, it's emotionally draining and takes time to change over from one home resort to another if that's where one needs to be. Most won't do it even when they should. Probably more importantly, the time can help get one past many of the emotions and into making a more rational decision. It might take one from buying retail at the high end to buying BLT/SSR/AKV and that's not a $2000 difference, it's far greater. And since financing is a poor choice, it also gives one time to position themselves accordingly. But each situation is different and the actual best answer will vary with the situation. OTOH, we've all seen the stories of those that should have bought 10 years ago and haven't. As for your example, the real comparison is to renting vs owning, not the rack rates of the hotel.

 

[RichVIII]

I look back at a week-long cash ressie at BLT and kick myself. Even if I had just round rentals first. Oh well....that stay was what hooked us. Three contracts later...

 

[crisi]

My take - start fifteen months before you want to use the points. That will give you four months to find the contract and close before the eleven month window opens. You could cut it as close as about eight months - you could find a contract quickly, close quickly, and still be within the seven month window.

Once you know you want to buy (as Dean says, that isn't a decision to be rushed), not taking a trip using your points will eat into your total savings (if savings is what you are looking for) more than trying to time a market. So decide to buy, and buy so that you can use your points. If you are a frequent Disney goer, that will be very soon. If you are an infrequent Disney goer with a trip two years out, you can take your time looking for exactly the right contract.

This assumes a cash purchase. If you will be financing, then the time value of money equations all get changed - and the advice on saving money with DVC also changes.

(Disclaimer: I STRONGLY believe that saving money should not be your only concern when buying DVC. Its my feeling that most members will spend more with Disney over time owning DVC than if they didn't buy. If you need the numbers to work on the savings side, DVC isn't a good choice. If you do manage to save money, its a bonus. And that's part of why deciding IF you should buy is different than deciding WHEN you should buy)