BCV and BWV may have reached peak value

[Brian Noble]

If you want to stay at BCV in a studio, for more than 3 nights during F&WF you must own there.

I managed to get a 1BR at BCV for a late October 2012 check-in via an RCI exchange....sitting in open inventory....at a discounted point value.

I figure I used up all my DVC luck in that one single trip.

 

[havoc315]

2042 will be interesting. I know the old key west extension was a disaster but have to think Disney does something.

There will be so many points disney will have to sell if they just acquire all the 2042 resort points. So I could definitely see current owners getting some kind of priority or discount. It’ll just be very different than what they did with OKW. Not that you buy into a 2042 resort with any sort of expectation of that.

Remember, Disney wants a new DVC to sell every 2-3 years. If they had it to do all over again, they would have staggered the older resorts and not have them all expire in 2042.

Note -- Through ROFR, they are slowly accumulating 2042 points. They have been ROFRing more points than they are directly selling. I'm not sure of their motive, but it appears they might want to reduce the number of points out there as we move closer to 2042.

So some speculation -- They won't just start selling new contracts for BCV, BWV, OKW, and BRV all at once in 2042.
OKW -- will just keep selling with 2057 contracts.
Between the other 3 resorts, don't be surprised if we see something like:
1 of the resorts immediately turned around with new 2092 contracts.
1 of the resorts undergo a massive refurb, even possible re-build, not go on sale until 2043-2044, with 2093-2094 contracts.
1 of the resorts get totally levelled, re-purposed, completely replaced.

For example, I could see BWV simply continued after a basic refurb..
Beach Club massive re-construct, with views into Epcot, far more rooms, etc.
Boulder Ridge levelled with the land re-purposed as a whole new resort or something entirely different.

I wouldn't expect any major perk to expiring owners, except maybe a little bit of an incentive towards a new contract at whatever resorts have open sales.

 

[Matty B13]

Remember, Disney wants a new DVC to sell every 2-3 years. If they had it to do all over again, they would have staggered the older resorts and not have them all expire in 2042.

Maybe....... depending on what DVC does with BCV & BWV, either tear them down or just slap some paint on them, I'm sure DVC won't mind selling a few million points at these resorts with new Point Charts. I'm guessing the guides won't sleep for a few months with all the calls for the NEW BCV & BWV points.

 

[Sandisw]

Remember, Disney wants a new DVC to sell every 2-3 years. If they had it to do all over again, they would have staggered the older resorts and not have them all expire in 2042.

Note -- Through ROFR, they are slowly accumulating 2042 points. They have been ROFRing more points than they are directly selling. I'm not sure of their motive, but it appears they might want to reduce the number of points out there as we move closer to 2042.

So some speculation -- They won't just start selling new contracts for BCV, BWV, OKW, and BRV all at once in 2042.
OKW -- will just keep selling with 2057 contracts.
Between the other 3 resorts, don't be surprised if we see something like:
1 of the resorts immediately turned around with new 2092 contracts.
1 of the resorts undergo a massive refurb, even possible re-build, not go on sale until 2043-2044, with 2093-2094 contracts.
1 of the resorts get totally levelled, re-purposed, completely replaced.

For example, I could see BWV simply continued after a basic refurb..
Beach Club massive re-construct, with views into Epcot, far more rooms, etc.
Boulder Ridge levelled with the land re-purposed as a whole new resort or something entirely different.

I wouldn't expect any major perk to expiring owners, except maybe a little bit of an incentive towards a new contract at whatever resorts have open sales.

Another thought I had with BWI is to convert some of that to DVC so they can start selling that prior to 2042, and then renovate current BWV to be added as another phase of the new DVC in some of the Inn rooms.

 

[havoc315]

Maybe....... depending on what DVC does with BCV & BWV, either tear them down or just slap some paint on them, I'm sure DVC won't mind selling a few million points at these resorts with new Point Charts. I'm guessing the guides won't sleep for a few months with all the calls for the NEW BCV & BWV points.

But BCV in particular is a missed opportunity. It's among the worst DVCs in terms of views. It got stuck on the worst part of the BC property as an after-thought. Granted that it would be hard to keep the New England theming with a tower, but a tower could give beautiful views into Epcot and Crescent lake. It would also allow them to add a lot more units to possibly the most popular DVC.

But the thing with just slapping a coat of paint on.... Beach Club Villas will be over 40 years old.... was the building really meant to stand for 90 years? It doesn't feel too old yet, but in another 19 years... those buildings may really start creaking.

 

[Huskerpaul]

I wouldn't expect any major perk to expiring owners, except maybe a little bit of an incentive towards a new contract at whatever resorts have open sales.

Makes sense to me. And in your example I could see them offering some incentives to owners still holding BWV contracts when they sell then new 50 year BWV association.

 

[thelionqueen]

Not that hard at all. Just find someone who has points to rent more than 11 months in advance, with arrangements for them to book at the 11 month mark. Several people with BWV points for rent on the board right now at 18-$20 per point.
Now yes, if you want until under 11 months, it will be hard to get F&W. But same if you own at BWV. Whether you own or rent, you need to make reservations at the 11 month mark.

I was referring to a non BCV owner trying to reserve BCV at 7 months, not renting or having a BCV owner book for you. This supports my comment that reserving at these resorts at 7 months (studios mainly) is difficult

 

[thelionqueen]

But BCV in particular is a missed opportunity. It's among the worst DVCs in terms of views. It got stuck on the worst part of the BC property as an after-thought. Granted that it would be hard to keep the New England theming with a tower, but a tower could give beautiful views into Epcot and Crescent lake. It would also allow them to add a lot more units to possibly the most popular DVC.

But the thing with just slapping a coat of paint on.... Beach Club Villas will be over 40 years old.... was the building really meant to stand for 90 years? It doesn't feel too old yet, but in another 19 years... those buildings may really start creaking.

All DVC resorts will age, and as historically shown, will get updated as needed.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I’ll be keeping my BCVs contract to expiration.
I paid $170 pp on a fully loaded with 21 years remaining and the trip I just booked for 196 points was $7000 for 12 nights on the hotel side. (We only stay studios)
Over the remaining life we’ll be saving quite a bit for our BCV stays. And if any owner rents their points out at $18 pp they’re leaving a significant amount of money on the table vs rack rate. Should be more like $25-$27 pp rental based on the demand for these locations and the renter would still get a 20% savings compared to rack rate.
There’s a lot being made about the remaining term left on these contracts but based on the costs of the hotel side, I think owners are in the drivers seat either with savings on their own vacations or a significant rental profit at either BCV or BWV.
We’ll be buying more when either the Yacht Club goes DVC or when BCVs 2 eventually goes on sale. The location and resorts can’t be beat.

Longtime bcv owner. Agree will hold until it expires. In terms of 22 to 25 pp. You have to compare to cash rate because at that point I think you are close to cash inwhich case I think most renters will go towards cash rate. I think for people who want to stay at bcv or bwv every year they may want to consider buying there or renting from an owner.

 

[havoc315]

I was referring to a non BCV owner trying to reserve BCV at 7 months, not renting or having a BCV owner book for you. This supports my comment that reserving at these resorts at 7 months (studios mainly) is difficult

Yes… agreed. But equally difficult whether renting points or owning. Easiest is cash guests booking at BWI.

 

[havoc315]

All DVC resorts will age, and as historically shown, will get updated as needed.

Hard goods refurb and coat of paint isn’t the same thing as 100 year old building collapsing.

 

[BruinEd03]

Remember, Disney wants a new DVC to sell every 2-3 years. If they had it to do all over again, they would have staggered the older resorts and not have them all expire in 2042.

Note -- Through ROFR, they are slowly accumulating 2042 points. They have been ROFRing more points than they are directly selling. I'm not sure of their motive, but it appears they might want to reduce the number of points out there as we move closer to 2042.

So some speculation -- They won't just start selling new contracts for BCV, BWV, OKW, and BRV all at once in 2042.
OKW -- will just keep selling with 2057 contracts.
Between the other 3 resorts, don't be surprised if we see something like:
1 of the resorts immediately turned around with new 2092 contracts.
1 of the resorts undergo a massive refurb, even possible re-build, not go on sale until 2043-2044, with 2093-2094 contracts.
1 of the resorts get totally levelled, re-purposed, completely replaced.

For example, I could see BWV simply continued after a basic refurb..
Beach Club massive re-construct, with views into Epcot, far more rooms, etc.
Boulder Ridge levelled with the land re-purposed as a whole new resort or something entirely different.

I wouldn't expect any major perk to expiring owners, except maybe a little bit of an incentive towards a new contract at whatever resorts have open sales.

I think they turn 2 of the 3 into hotel rooms and level the other one. Then once that one is online, level another one and rebuild. When I say level, they could level the hotel side, too.

If I had to guess, it would be, 2042 - level BW, and rebuild. The BC DVC rooms will help fill hotel room demand from BW. 2044, level BR and rebuild. 2046, level BC and rebuild.

 

[AdamsMum]

But buying BCV at $170pp

But many of us bought when those resorts were newer 15-20 years ago and at much lower prices. I doubt many would be buying at those prices to rent the points out now.

 

[havoc315]

I think they turn 2 of the 3 into hotel rooms and level the other one. Then once that one is online, level another one and rebuild. When I say level, they could level the hotel side, too.

If I had to guess, it would be, 2042 - level BW, and rebuild. The BC DVC rooms will help fill hotel room demand from BW. 2044, level BR and rebuild. 2046, level BC and rebuild.

Very possible. It's impossible to know with any reliability -- Disney probably doesn't know yet either, but will start to make a plan in the coming years.
The point is, once they build a DVC, they are stuck with that building for 50 more years.
So they only get the opportunity to truly re-build once every 50 years.
Now look at Las Vegas, where they are knocking down massive hotels every 30-40 years to start all over from scratch. Now, WDW isn't Las Vegas. But still, people want modern hotels, preferences and style changes over time. I don't think Disney will just sit on their laurels and slap a coat of paint on.
For example -- hotel room sizes have mostly increased in recent years. The 2042 resorts tend to have smallish rooms. BRV, BCV and BWV all have studios of 350-360 sf... Riviera, Poly, and the newest studios are all 420-450 sf. A major difference.
What if by the late 2030's... 450sf is smallish, and the new normal is 500sf? Then slapping a coat of pain on 350sf rooms might not be a great seller.

Given you only get 1 chance every 50 years to make MAJOR changes.... I doubt Disney will just do a soft good swap at most of the 2042 resorts.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Very possible. It's impossible to know with any reliability -- Disney probably doesn't know yet either, but will start to make a plan in the coming years.
The point is, once they build a DVC, they are stuck with that building for 50 more years.
So they only get the opportunity to truly re-build once every 50 years.
Now look at Las Vegas, where they are knocking down massive hotels every 30-40 years to start all over from scratch. Now, WDW isn't Las Vegas. But still, people want modern hotels, preferences and style changes over time. I don't think Disney will just sit on their laurels and slap a coat of paint on.
For example -- hotel room sizes have mostly increased in recent years. The 2042 resorts tend to have smallish rooms. BRV, BCV and BWV all have studios of 350-360 sf... Riviera, Poly, and the newest studios are all 420-450 sf. A major difference.
What if by the late 2030's... 450sf is smallish, and the new normal is 500sf? Then slapping a coat of pain on 350sf rooms might not be a great seller.

Given you only get 1 chance every 50 years to make MAJOR changes.... I doubt Disney will just do a soft good swap at most of the 2042 resorts.

As a construction consultant with over 40 years in the business (nearly 30 years in construction forensics and building failure analysis), I keep trying to tell people this.

Those old buildings are going to be woefully outdated structurally and technologically (think smart functionality, green energy, etc.), and will fall well below the amenities that will be expected by guests when we hit the middle of the 21st Century. In many instances, updating or upgrading to current building codes and standards and technology, even today, is oftentimes cost-prohibitive, or impossible, from a practicality standpoint.
Many on here think those 60 year old resorts can simply be flipped with Disney making the mother of all windfalls, and I say that they may need to rebuild several of them, and at the very least do MAJOR, not minor renovation and reconstruction.

I'm also not so sure halfway to the 22nd Century, with a real colony on the Moon and Mars highly probable, and technology enjoying another 20 or 30 years of advancement, that guests will be super happy to spend the same purchasing dollars on what we would view today, relatively speaking, as a motel from 1965, versus whatever has been built in the intervening years.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I'm also not so sure halfway to the 22nd Century, with a real colony on the Moon and Mars highly probable, and technology enjoying another 20 or 30 years of advancement, that guests will be super happy to spend the same purchasing dollars on what we would view today, relatively speaking, as a motel from 1965, versus whatever has been built in the intervening years.

That is a fantastic question. WDW is now 50 years old and is certainly showing its age in many regards. What will it look and feel like in 2042 or in 2072 at 100 years old? And at what cost?

 

[DonMacGregor]

That is a fantastic question. WDW is now 50 years old and is certainly showing its age in many regards. What will it look and feel like in 2042 or in 2072 at 100 years old? And at what cost?

Just look at the advancement of technology over the past 20 years, versus the 20 years prior to that. Now, extrapolate that forward. Arguably, technological growth may be increasing or slowing, depending on your benchmark (see Moore's law), but even at a slowed linear growth (versus exponential), we're talking about 30 more years of advancement.

 

[havoc315]

As a construction consultant with over 40 years in the business (nearly 30 years in construction forensics and building failure analysis), I keep trying to tell people this.

Those old buildings are going to be woefully outdated structurally and technologically (think smart functionality, green energy, etc.), and will fall well below the amenities that will be expected by guests when we hit the middle of the 21st Century. In many instances, updating or upgrading to current building codes and standards and technology, even today, is oftentimes cost-prohibitive, or impossible, from a practicality standpoint.
Many on here think those 60 year old resorts can simply be flipped with Disney making the mother of all windfalls, and I say that they may need to rebuild several of them, and at the very least do MAJOR, not minor renovation and reconstruction.

I'm also not so sure halfway to the 22nd Century, with a real colony on the Moon and Mars highly probable, and technology enjoying another 20 or 30 years of advancement, that guests will be super happy to spend the same purchasing dollars on what we would view today, relatively speaking, as a motel from 1965, versus whatever has been built in the intervening years.

Not so sure about the Mars colony but yes to all the rest. Some structures will age better than others. But what passed as a nice hotel in 1982 may not seem so nice in 2082.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Not so sure about the Mars colony but yes to all the rest. Some structures will age better than others. But what passed as a nice hotel in 1982 may not seem so nice in 2082.

I think it will be advanced expectations on the part of guests, regardless of what it's wrapped in.

Oh, and don't be hating on Buzz:

 

[Brian Noble]

Speaking of astronauts, I saw this excellent Neil Gaiman anecdote about impostor syndrome yesterday (yes there is an astronaut connection if you read it):

https://journal.neilgaiman.com/2017/05/the-neil-story-with-additional-footnote.html

I've met only one of the Three Neils, and as it happens the one I met was the Neal, not one of the Neils. He (Neal) is an interesting dude.