Artificially Inflating Wait Times?

[wisblue]

NM

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Nothing like a good conspiracy theory to pass the day

Is it a conspiracy theory if it’s true? Publicly available data from tracking websites shows that Disney is clearly inflating it’s wait times.

 

[BK2014]

That's kind of hogwash. LiNES has accurate wait times all day long (crowd sourced). Disney can easily and accurately track accurate wait times via magic bands. Just like the old red cards. We already know they intentionally inflate wait times at park close to discourage riders and get people to leave. This is no different. They are attempting crowd manipulation.

Posted wait times are always estimates based on old, even if recent data. Someone turning in a red card (under the old system) after 45 minutes in line does not necessarily predict how long the wait is now going to be for someone who just joined the line at the same time that the red card was turned in. Even with the Lines app, just because someone reports an actual wait time of 30 minutes, that information in no way informs the user whether or not the line is still 30 minutes. In the 30 minutes that the reporter spent in line, more people may have joined behind them making the wait longer, fewer people may have joined making the wait shorter, or just enough people to maintain the reported 30 minute wait time. I would think the last scenario is largely based on luck.

In theory, if a ride has a posted wait time of 30 minutes, that is based on the current number of people in line. Meaning that everyone who joins after should expect a longer than 30 minute wait, as they have just added to the number of people in line. But people would be even less happy waiting in a longer than posted line than they are having wait times over estimated.

 

[Jennasis]

Posted wait times are always estimates based on old, even if recent data. Someone turning in a red card (under the old system) after 45 minutes in line does not necessarily predict how long the wait is now going to be for someone who just joined the line at the same time that the red card was turned in. Even with the Lines app, just because someone reports an actual wait time of 30 minutes, that information in no way informs the user whether or not the line is still 30 minutes. In the 30 minutes that the reporter spent in line, more people may have joined behind them making the wait longer, fewer people may have joined making the wait shorter, or just enough people to maintain the reported 30 minute wait time. I would think the last scenario is largely based on luck.

In theory, if a ride has a posted wait time of 30 minutes, that is based on the current number of people in line. Meaning that everyone who joins after should expect a longer than 30 minute wait, as they have just added to the number of people in line. But people would be even less happy waiting in a longer than posted line than they are having wait times over estimated.

They (Disney) have a constant stream of data. Everyone (for the most part) in line has a card or magic band. Everyone who joins the line has a card or magic band. It's not as if they're timing ONE guest through the line and basing their answer on that. They have, in real time, ACTUAL current running wait times of every single person in line.

 

[musicguy856]

They (Disney) have a constant stream of data. Everyone (for the most part) in line has a card or magic band. Everyone who joins the line has a card or magic band. It's not as if they're timing ONE guest through the line and basing their answer on that. They have, in real time, ACTUAL current running wait times of every single person in line.

Cards do not have long range transmitters and can only be read when tapped. Fewer people have MBs because Disney charges onsite guests for them now.

 

[BK2014]

They (Disney) have a constant stream of data. Everyone (for the most part) in line has a card or magic band. Everyone who joins the line has a card or magic band. It's not as if they're timing ONE guest through the line and basing their answer on that. They have, in real time, ACTUAL current running wait times of every single person in line.

This assumes that Disney is actively monitoring/tracking each of the magicbands or cards in the queues, especially since none of the standby lines that I am aware of require guests to scan in. I haven't seen any information other than speculation that they actually do this, but maybe your or others on this board have more information than I do (which is not much).

Even if Disney has data on everyone in line, and knows how long their wait is, it doesn't change my point that everyone else who joins makes the line subsequently longer. Additionally, it doesn't account for other variables, like longer/slower loading parties, line jumpers etc. At best, it is always an estimate.

 

[Jennasis]

Cards do not have long range transmitters and can only be read when tapped. Fewer people have MBs because Disney charges onsite guests for them now.

They can scan your card or band for ride photos without "tapping in", they can scan it for timing. Somehow they knew I was in line for Everest...my name showed up on the interactive queue posters. It showed up at the end of Small World. Space Mountain photos magically appear in my MDE account. Not once did I scan my band for those. They can absolutely scan your band for timing.

 

[Jennasis]

This assumes that Disney is actively monitoring/tracking each of the magicbands or cards in the queues, especially since none of the standby lines that I am aware of require guests to scan in. I haven't seen any information other than speculation that they actually do this, but maybe your or others on this board have more information than I do (which is not much).

Even if Disney has data on everyone in line, and knows how long their wait is, it doesn't change my point that everyone else who joins makes the line subsequently longer. Additionally, it doesn't account for other variables, like longer/slower loading parties, line jumpers etc. At best, it is always an estimate.

As each person joins the line, others are leaving the line. Sometimes more are joining than leaving, hence wait times increase, and sometimes more people are leaving the line than are joining, hence a lessening wait time. Simply getting in line doesn't automatically make the wait longer. Ride breakdowns, slowdowns, and large influx of guests getting in line...that increases waits.

 

[musicguy856]

They can scan your card or band for ride photos without "tapping in", they can scan it for timing. Somehow they knew I was in line for Everest...my name showed up on the interactive queue posters. It showed up at the end of Small World. Space Mountain photos magically appear in my MDE account. Not once did I scan my band for those. They can absolutely scan your band for timing.

MagicBands can be read from a distance, but the plastic ticket cards that fit in your wallet cannot. They can also use some combination of Bluetooth and Location Services to tell where you are in the park via the app.

 

[musicguy856]

From Disney's website:

If you prefer, you may elect to use a card instead of a MagicBand. Cards contain a passive HF Radio Frequency chip and cannot be detected by the long-range readers.

https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/faq/my-disney-experience/frequency-technology/

 

[CAPSLOCK]

All technology aside, they should be able to make a very close estimate based on where the physical standby queue actually ends. That is basic information they have immediate access to and can see in real time as it changes.

 

[musicguy856]

All technology aside, they should be able to make a very close estimate based on where the physical standby queue actually ends. That is basic information they have immediate access to and can see in real time as it changes.

It could change quickly for higher tier rides in terms of wait times. Let's say a lower-tier ride such as Magic Carpets or Mad Tea Party shuts down. All Genie+ holders for that now have the ability to use their LL at most rides throughout MK, not just on the downed ride. Also anyone on the ride or in line at the time of the shutdown may receive a recovery pass. Now their Magic Carpets LL is good for rides such as Splash or Thunder Mountain, driving up the wait times there. I had a Pirates LL when it went down and it excluded Jungle Cruise, Peter Pan, 7DMT, and Space but included Thunder. When I got back to that side of the park after Pirates reopened, it was a 15 minute standby wait and Thunder was closer to an hour and I wanted to ride both. I waited standby for Pirates and used my replacement LL at Thunder. Me + others doing this drive up BTMRR's standby line and Disney wants to account for that possibility.

 

[wisblue]

All technology aside, they should be able to make a very close estimate based on where the physical standby queue actually ends. That is basic information they have immediate access to and can see in real time as it changes.

They pretty clearly do make estimates based on the physical length of the line, but how accurate they are can depend on things like how closely people in line stay to the groups ahead of them and how efficiently the groups ahead of them board.

You often hear the announcements to stay with the group ahead of you to make your wait time as short as possible. That’s kind of ridiculous because that only matters at the very end when you’re ready to board.

I‘ve always thought they want to do that to help them see how long the line really is.

But the physical length of the standby line isn’t the only factor. In addition to the line being held up by slow boarders, it can be held up if there is a sudden spurt of people coming in the LL.

I don’t understand getting bothered by WHY the posted wait times aren’t precisely accurate all the time. If people want to attribute this to some sinister plot to manipulate behavior and squeeze more money out of people, that’s your right. I prefer to think that, most of the time, it is done to minimize guest dissatisfaction about unexpectedly long waits.

But, as a matter of STRATEGY (which is what this board is supposed to be about) I would just advise that posted wait times are frequently (but not always) higher than the actual wait time you will experience. Experienced guests can often recognize when the posted wait times are significantly overstated, especially at attractions where most of the queue is visible from outside.

I would also advise that if you enter a line assuming that your actual wait will be shorter than the posted wait, you might be disappointed, and shouldn’t get angry.

 

[MikeandReneePlus5]

I always thought the higher than actual wait time posted was so you felt a bit of magic when you arrived at the ride early!

 

[reddog21]

Is it a conspiracy theory if it’s true? Publicly available data from tracking websites shows that Disney is clearly inflating it’s wait times.

I watch way to many vloggers to realize there are days and times that wait times are spot on(close enough) and others that are way off. I don't think it's anything other than simple crowd control.

 

[DavidNYC]

One thing that I see so few people ever acknowledge at this discussion is that wait times are still basically A GUESS!!!! There is no such thing as a truly accurate current wait time because there is no way to know it. Think about it. Someone who enters a ride vehicle after waiting an hour does not mean that the wait is an hour. That means 1 hour ago the wait time was an hour. And that is the majority of the hard data that Disney has - how long did a person who just got on a ride actually wait. Everything else is based on an estimate of what has happened over the past hour in terms of whether flow of people to the ride had decreased or increased for both standby and LL, whether the ride has operated at full capacity, etc. There is clearly some element of inflation (both for crowd control and also for the underpromise/overdeliver aspect) but I don't think nearly as much as people think there is. I think the fact that wait time is a lagging indicator plays a much bigger role than people think. I'm seeing just as many reports of people saying wait times were accurate or even that they waited longer than the posted wait time. (And I'm excluding the first 30 minutes when we all know the wait times fluctuate too fast for posted times to accurately capture the real situation and end of day - although end of day is also part lagging indicator combined with them wanting to shut down the ride as soon as they can post-closing time.

 

[lentesta]

This assumes that Disney is actively monitoring/tracking each of the magicbands or cards in the queues, especially since none of the standby lines that I am aware of require guests to scan in. I haven't seen any information other than speculation that they actually do this, but maybe your or others on this board have more information than I do (which is not much).

This US patent application from 2014 indicates how they'd use (for example) RFID chips in MagicBands for tracking guest movement in the parks. IIRC, some of these ideas were used in the switch from the old, red "Flik" cards, to embedded RFID sensors in the lines. There are similar patents but my USPTO search skills seem to have left me at the moment.

For what it's worth, we've looked at whether G+ and ILL wait times are artificially inflated to boost sales. As of last month, we can't say that's what's happening - the posted wait times are too all over the place. They tend to be inflated, but enough of them are underestimates that it clouds the analysis.

 

[mickeymom629]

When we went in January, wait times were posted long and they were long waits. Sometimes we might have waited a little less but other times we waited more than the posted wait times.

 

[Orsino]

My feeling is that it doesn’t quite make sense for the people in charge of published wait times to care about boosting genie+ sales. In large corporations like Disney, the rewards for such a thing aren’t going to go to whoever is doing wait times. More genie+ sales will give credit the genie+ people. Disney wouldn’t even be able to know how much messing with wait times help genie sales.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

This US patent application from 2014 indicates how they'd use (for example) RFID chips in MagicBands for tracking guest movement in the parks. IIRC, some of these ideas were used in the switch from the old, red "Flik" cards, to embedded RFID sensors in the lines. There are similar patents but my USPTO search skills seem to have left me at the moment.

For what it's worth, we've looked at whether G+ and ILL wait times are artificially inflated to boost sales. As of last month, we can't say that's what's happening - the posted wait times are too all over the place. They tend to be inflated, but enough of them are underestimates that it clouds the analysis.

Thank you. Any theories on why Disney, which has access to much more raw data than you do, nonetheless so consistently trails the accuracy of your Lines app? I use your app on every trip and with very rare exceptions usually involving breakdowns it always seems to be plus or minus 5 minutes from how long I actually wait.