Article: Can 'Avatar' Save Disney's Animal Kingdom?

[OnSpaceshipEarth]

1) Rohde sure messed up when he planned AK.
2) Now, they are trying to save it.
3) He thought Everest would do it.
4) NOPE.
5) Now, they are banking on Avatarland.
6) It might be a great attraction, but not enough for an ill-conceived park.

NOTE: The additions to DHS should help that park, as the attractions are
based upon VERY popular and well known movies-ideas-premises.

EE didn't give Animal Kingdom a huge boost?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Pointless exercise. DAK and DHS do not exist in a vacuum. Proximity to MK and Epcot is just one of several factors weighing in Disney's favor.

USF and IOA probably do have more to offer as stand-alone parks. But none of them are stand-alone parks.

I have to agree here...

This argument about the effect of MK and EPCOT is easily reversed. DHS and AK were built(and slashed)based partly upon the existence of the other two... So it's pointless.

If you have four kids, you buy enough spaghetti to feed all of them... You don't hypothesize about what would happen if two don't eat.

And I know there's this "thought" (loosely termed) about how universals attendance are actually bigger than ak and studios because of park hopping.

That is not true or even feasible... They hop "alot" at universal too... And the lead is too large to be explained away by hopping. Most 1st time visitors (they track this) still typically spend the day in the park... And if they really hate DAK...there is much higher defection to magic kingdom and EPCOT... Even downtown... Than studios. So that doesn't throw the little guys numbers off.
And in the case of animal kingdom... Almost nobody defects to it...probably 80% of entries are before noon... Which means its not benefitting in numbers from magic kingdom

 

[lockedoutlogic]

EE didn't give Animal Kingdom a huge boost?

It did...maybe.

True their numbers spiked in that period...but so did everybody's.
EE was built during the time when a significant portion of this country were in houses they had no hope to afford and were putting vacation club on their Amex they were pre approved yesterday for...so that is part of the reality.

They lagged in post 9/11 when travel was down... And grew during the bubble...now they've been flat and normal inflation has taken place for five years to keep it at bubble levels.

Mathematically there is a correlation.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

None of the numbered statements are true. The note is.

That is not true at all (you must be rohde's mother)

It wasn't necessarily "we'll conceived"... But what it definitely wasn't done was constructed with any sense of economic sense. What was built was completely blown overbudget...and that diminished what would be "tolerated" to be built.

The result was a half finished park which EISNER pulled the funding plug on and threw open the gates. Disney's claims of cost are artificially reduced...I believe Guinness that asserts that the park cost close to 2 billion ( more like 3 now) to build. It was DOA and so was its expansion "budget"

That dippy joe... Who apparently doesn't understand he doesn't have every penny in Disney's liquid value to spend. It's called stock price, genius... You have to fight the war...not try to thrown every dime into one "artistic" battle

That guy should be fired ten times over. I'm tired of paying to offset his "musings"

 

[PortMickey]

Panda Bears would help AK more than Pandora. Just ask any 5 year old. Maybe Their new friends in Shanghai can help get some Pandas to WDW.

 

[tjkraz]

Panda Bears would help AK more than Pandora. Just ask any 5 year old. Maybe Their new friends in Shanghai can help get some Pandas to WDW.

Pandas are cute and somewhat unique. But do you really think their presence would be the tipping point that prompts many new visits to WDW?

That's why Disney is interested in Avatar. They want the "Harry Potter" effect. With a $250 million investment in Harry Potter, Islands of Adventure's attendance went up a couple million guests.

Pandas wouldn't have that impact. An Australia "land" wouldn't have that impact. Beastly Kingdom wouldn't have that impact.

Avatar is certainly a gamble, but James Cameron's resume is virtually unblemished. If his film sequels and other ancillary marketing pan out, Avatar could easily drive new business to the park.

 

[Silock]

That is not true at all (you must be rohde's mother)

And you must be clueless. Nice to make your acquaintance.

That guy should be fired ten times over. I'm tired of paying to offset his "musings"

 

[ChipnDale79]

Pointless exercise. DAK and DHS do not exist in a vacuum. Proximity to MK and Epcot is just one of several factors weighing in Disney's favor.

USF and IOA probably do have more to offer as stand-alone parks. But none of them are stand-alone parks.

Not pointless, I think its fair to say that DAK and DHS don't have as much to offer as IOA and USF, on a park to park level.

Also think its fair to say that the Universal Resort does not have nearly as much to offer as WDW.

Personally, I'd love to see both DHS and DAK offer more night time dinning and entertainment. Looks like we are going to get that with DAK.

Blue sky, I'd love to see DHS turn Streets of America into some sort of area sort of like World Showcase in the evening, meaning different types of places to dine and shop.

 

[Son of Gadsden]

I'm in agreement with several of the posters here. I don't see how AK needs "saving". It's definitely a special park compared to the others, as you either could stay there forever, or you're bored after an hour.

I always thought it was rather boring. My DW, however, is crazy about animals and zoos and all that. She could go there every day and not get bored. But since we've been going together, I've grown to like it a bit, too. Pizzafari is something I look forward too, Yeti (of course), and Dinoland is something different from what you see everywhere else. I'm not crazy about the animals or the safaris, but they're interesting for a little while, anyway. And, I'm totally excited to try Flame Tree next time. Love BBQ and I'm hearing it's a must do that i somehow havent done.

I don't think Avatar will be a game changer. Like I said above, if you love animals and zoos, you love the park. If you're not that into animals and zoos, you're not going to be into it.

Avatarland will likely add a few more hours of entertainment to those who already enjoy the park.

 

[tjkraz]

Not pointless, I think its fair to say that DAK and DHS don't have as much to offer as IOA and USF, on a park to park level.

Also think its fair to say that the Universal Resort does not have nearly as much to offer as WDW.

You're welcome to compare and contrast the parks if you wish. But the comment I was responding to was: "Let's ask this question, what would the attendance be at DHS and AK if WDW did not include MK and Epcot?"

Again, that's a pointless topic to ponder. Disney isn't going to make investment decisions based upon some hypothetical scenario in which its two most attended Florida parks don't exist. And Disney doesn't appear to be losing visits to USF/IOA despite the fact that there's less to do at DHS/DAK.

DHS and DAK DO outdraw both USF and IOA by a sizable margin...at least through 2012. (And Disney has claimed record attendance for multiple quarters in FY 2013.)

The elephant in the room is more Harry Potter stuff at US/IOA. Disney could be viewing that as a threat to its own numbers. If so, DHS and DAK are the logical expansion parks to help fend-off that impact.

 

[ChipnDale79]

And Disney doesn't appear to be losing visits to USF/IOA despite the fact that there's less to do at DHS/DAK.

I personally think that's debatable, and I think that's why Disney is expanding DAK, and if any of the rumors are true about DHS.....

I think all roads lead back to Harry Potter, Disney has seen what something of the magnitude of Harry Potter could do, and for the first time they believe they actually have a competitor on their hands.

For example, if most families take a week vacation to Orlando and historically have stayed at WDW with 7 or 8 day park hoppers, and then suddenly decide to spend 2 days at Universal and only purchase 5 or 6 day park hoppers, then yes it does effect Disney. I think you're starting to see more and more of that.

That describes my family perfectly, and I know we arent alone. My wife and I havent been to Universal since the 90s, however we've been to WDW about 10-15 times since then, we'll be making the trek to Universal to see what it's all about.

 

[DPCummerbund]

That describes my family perfectly, and I know we arent alone. My wife and I havent been to Universal since the 90s, however we've been to WDW about 10-15 times since then, we'll be making the trek to Universal to see what it's all about.

I agree completely. I haven't been to WDW in several years - since 2006. If I were going back now, I can't think of anything at WDW that would be all that different, there haven't been any "must see" attractions in 7 years. But I will absolutely be visiting WWOHP the next time we're in Orlando. It's a "must see".

 

[lockedoutlogic]

And you must be clueless. Nice to make your acquaintance.

Woah there, "Cast"...

Pour the Koolaid and see if I'm drinking today...

I'm all for Conversation and debate... It's the whole Point of this...but what I'm not here for is "rotfl" being schlepped off as an intelligent thought...or one at all....

I'm all ears

 

[OnSpaceshipEarth]

I don't think that Avatarland will be a "game-changer" in the competition with Universal as much as it will be a "game-changer" for Animal Kingdom.

Will it draw *more* visitors to WDW than before? Doubtful. But it will help solidify Disney's dominance in overall attendance and push AK firmly into third place amongst their parks.

A good addition to WDW that really won't affect the blazing growth of Universal.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I personally think that's debatable, and I think that's why Disney is expanding DAK, and if any of the rumors are true about DHS.....
.

I personally (respectfully ) don't think it's debatable at all. The amount of time spent on disproving hard numbers around here is mind boggling at some times.

Ak and studios have higher numbers than even the great IOA because Disney has an insurmountable lead in reputation and worldwide appeal than uni can muster...it's not gonna be close. Even if we believe Disney is being poorly managed and degrading its product - which most of us agree.

But we chase herrings...
There's this conspiracy that somehow not only does crossing over between USO and IOA doesnt occur... While DAK is being falsely bloated by 5 million park hoppers. It's obvious why this keeps getting pushed: the wishful thinking that Disney is aware of the truth, they're hiding it, and they're about to build a couple of billion in rides to respond...and more than likely roll the pricing back to 1998 so we all can Kumbaya at the park gate every morning...
It's just completely false. Have to take the fan/wishful thinking blinders off and reject this nonsense.

Two other herring I saw on here recently...

That fastpass+ will prevent all those "freeloading" off siters from abusing EMH...

First, those that do are almost statistical outliers... Which means that is a grasp at marginal straws.
Second, fastpass+ and my magic are designed to direct market, reduce the need for staff and possibly hours,, and steer you towards giftshops...
That is it. Think of how they're "weeding out the abusers" all you want if it helps you sleep...but I just told you what's behind the curtain.

The other was how credit guarantees will eliminate evil ghost reservations and allow walk ups at restaurants
The fist part is true... But again chasing margins that don't affect you nearly as much as you think...and the second is fools errand. This will allow partial shutdowns of restaurants based on more accurate forecasting to save on overhead. This has been going on for almost ten years...it's just being expanded.
Think about it: why go hard reservations on rides and loosen up meals? Makes no sense whatsoever...so that ain't what's going on.

My point is we need to ramp up the skepticism a little more to become better consumers...the fox is in the henhouse at this point.

 

[tjkraz]

For example, if most families take a week vacation to Orlando and historically have stayed at WDW with 7 or 8 day park hoppers, and then suddenly decide to spend 2 days at Universal and only purchase 5 or 6 day park hoppers, then yes it does effect Disney. I think you're starting to see more and more of that.

That describes my family perfectly, and I know we arent alone. My wife and I havent been to Universal since the 90s, however we've been to WDW about 10-15 times since then, we'll be making the trek to Universal to see what it's all about.

Problem is you're making generalizations about your own habits--and those of personal acquaintances--without really having any knowledge of how many people follow those same patterns.

Disney loses and gains business all the time. I've been to Universal a couple times. Once was about 6 years ago and the other time about 4 years ago. So on those occasions you could argue that Disney "lost" a few days of my business. More recently, they haven't.

Every day families outgrow the Disney parks. And every day there are other families discovering the Disney parks.

In many ways, improvements at Universal will actually help Disney. There are people who used the Harry Potter attractions as their reason for visiting central Florida...and proceeded to spend a few days at WDW while in town.

I'm not saying there isn't concern deep in the executive offices at WDW. Attendance at DAK and DHS has flatlined in recent years and the next wave of Harry Potter additions is on the horizon.

But Harry Potter is the proverbial genie who has been let out of the bottle. Even if Disney spends a billion dollars to build Star Wars Land and Pandora, there will STILL be people who want to visit WWoHP.

As has been the case over the last decade, Disney's park investments will be very calculated. The days of Eisner's knee-jerk spending are gone. I suspect the primary goal of the DAK expansion is to extend operating hours.

Consider something as basic as food sales. Right now, the only viable meal at DAK is lunch. The park closes at 5pm most days. The number of guests eating dinner at DAK is miniscule. Just getting dinner crowds into the park could double food & beverage revenues. Not to mention all of the other retail sales that accompany longer operating hours.

Avatar itself is a calculated move. Disney is gambling that more film sequels will reignite worldwide interest in the franchise. If so, then you will have people saying "hey, lets go to Walt Disney World to see that Pandora area." Best case scenario, the park will eventually host fan events and move a lot of Avatar merchandise.

A generic expansion like "Australia" or "Beastly Kingdom" would never have as great of an upside.

lockedoutlogic nailed it with this:

Ak and studios have higher numbers than even the great IOA because Disney has an insurmountable lead in reputation and worldwide appeal than uni can muster...it's not gonna be close. Even if we believe Disney is being poorly managed and degrading its product - which most of us agree.

Forget the die-hard, message-board-reading Disney fans. Most of their business comes from families making those ritualistic once-in-a-lifetime visits to that place where they can get the photos with Mickey Mouse.

I don't really foresee a day when Gru or Optimus Prime or Ron Weasley replace Mickey and Minnie in those photos placed on fireplace mantles throughout middle America.

 

[Shaden]

I personally think that's debatable, and I think that's why Disney is expanding DAK, and if any of the rumors are true about DHS.....

I think all roads lead back to Harry Potter, Disney has seen what something of the magnitude of Harry Potter could do, and for the first time they believe they actually have a competitor on their hands.

For example, if most families take a week vacation to Orlando and historically have stayed at WDW with 7 or 8 day park hoppers, and then suddenly decide to spend 2 days at Universal and only purchase 5 or 6 day park hoppers, then yes it does effect Disney. I think you're starting to see more and more of that.

That describes my family perfectly, and I know we arent alone. My wife and I havent been to Universal since the 90s, however we've been to WDW about 10-15 times since then, we'll be making the trek to Universal to see what it's all about.

I don't think Disney has to save AK by any means. WDW seems to be doing extremely well, and with the increase revenue of magic bands (even if its only small, but I imagine it will be a good chunk of change) from the same number of people, they will be even more fine.

BUT, its funny we have done Orlando several years in a row, and the last couple only WDW ... we did universal 3 years ago when in Orlando though, but didn't really seem the need to go back. When we were there Harry Potter was being built, heck it was all but done, we got to ride "dueling dragons" which became the Potter roller coaster... we had a good time too.

But Disney is where our hearts are, we love it there. I dream of buying DVC, I keep thinking how great of an investment it would be now, before we even have kids, a whole life of Disney as a family....

However, visiting my sister this weekend, talking about our upcoming May trip, and she turns and says to me ... "I think we want to do a Universal Day, we want to do Harry Potter .... "

I reply, "yea, I wouldn't mind doing Islands of adventure again too if we are going to do Universal ... " cuz it WAS fun after all last time.

We wont do these on separate days, our Universal just turned into 2 days.


So yea, its only 2 days of our 2 week trip, true enough, and we are still staying on Disney property, true enough. But that's 2 days we will be in universal, spending out money there, buying snacks there, maybe even a Mug or keepsake of some sort ... Lets say $100. Probably the minimum we will spend in 2 days ... But if every family spent $100 less at WDW and $100 more at Universal ... that would make a pretty big difference to WDW.

 

[tjkraz]

So yea, its only 2 days of our 2 week trip, true enough, and we are still staying on Disney property, true enough. But that's 2 days we will be in universal, spending out money there, buying snacks there, maybe even a Mug or keepsake of some sort ... Lets say $100. Probably the minimum we will spend in 2 days ... But if every family spent $100 less at WDW and $100 more at Universal ... that would make a pretty big difference to WDW.

And if my grandmother had wheels she'd be a wagon.

From 2008 to 2012...through the worst US economy in decades...through IOA attendance increasing over 50%...DAK not only held steady but its attendance went up 5%. And DHS went up 3%.

We've had 4 years of doom-and-gloom predictions now for WDW in the wake of WWoHP and it just hasn't happened.

Now, Disney's attendance may have gone up more if they had built more at those two parks. But that would have required additional capital expense. You don't just recoup a $500m - $1b investment overnight!

And at the end of the day, Star Wars Land and/or Pandora is not going to keep people from visiting Universal. Disney could spend a billion dollars on Star Wars Land at DHS. But realistically all you're going to get is 2-3 new attractions, a couple restaurants and a themed region of the park. It may be enough to get you excited for a trip or two, but it can't compete with the DOZENS of unique experiences 20 minutes up the road at USF.

Like I said in my last post, for over 20 years now people have been trimming days from Disney trips to visit the Universal parks. Just because YOU are doing it now doesn't mean it's either a unique phenomenon, nor that it's harmful to Disney.

Disney may be losing a few hundred dollars of your ticket and souvenir money, but they aren't going to green light a billion-dollar park expansion just to maybe...possibly convince you not to spend a day at USF.

 

[N365PA]

I'll join the group that says animal kingdom does not need "saving." Spend this money on Cars Land at DHS or something else new at DHS.

 

[Silock]

Woah there, "Cast"...

Pour the Koolaid and see if I'm drinking today...

I'm all for Conversation and debate... It's the whole Point of this...but what I'm not here for is "rotfl" being schlepped off as an intelligent thought...or one at all....

I'm all ears

It doesn't matter what I write. You're just going to disagree with it. So, what's the point?