Are we ever guilty of Over-Analyzing?

[bwbuddy5]

Ok, I’ve been a financial geek for over 35 years, and I’ve always joked that if you just let me know what result you want, I can manipulate the numbers to get you there My family and friends joke about how tight I am with my money, but they know I like to splurge and enjoy my vacations.

So, I feel I am qualified to ask: Do we ever over-analyze our DVC purchases? When I bought, I didn’t pay that much attention to what I felt it would be worth down the road if I sold it. I only compared it to what my vacation accommodations would have cost me if I didn’t own DVC.

So, the moral to this post is buy what you want at the price you want, and then don’t beat yourself up about it, and don’t look back; ENJOY! Remember, if Walt had paid much attention to Roy’s “analysis”, we may never have had Disneyland!

What say ye?

 

[DenLo]

Us, over analyze stuff? Naw! I just hope that some comment I make doesn't prevent someone from buying where they will be happy.

 

[disneynutz]

I think that most of us over analyze. For DVC we should take the time to understand the product, the pluses and minuses take the time to learn about the resorts, rooms, and views.

The thing that I don't understand is that owning a DVC isn't a life long commitment, you can sell and walk away or buy a different home resort if you have booking issues but most people seems to think that they will own forever.

Bill

 

[Drewski77]

Ok, I’ve been a financial geek for over 35 years, and I’ve always joked that if you just let me know what result you want, I can manipulate the numbers to get you there My family and friends joke about how tight I am with my money, but they know I like to splurge and enjoy my vacations.

So, I feel I am qualified to ask: Do we ever over-analyze our DVC purchases? When I bought, I didn’t pay that much attention to what I felt it would be worth down the road if I sold it. I only compared it to what my vacation accommodations would have cost me if I didn’t own DVC.

So, the moral to this post is buy what you want at the price you want, and then don’t beat yourself up about it, and don’t look back; ENJOY! Remember, if Walt had paid much attention to Roy’s “analysis”, we may never have had Disneyland!

What say ye?

I would definitely agree that many of us over-analyze a potential DVC purchase and probably many other things. I also think that we generally underestimate the consumption value of any given purchase including DVC in comparison to instruments that are purely financial in nature such as stocks or mutual funds.

Many of the purely "numbers" evaluators will often reference the "opportunity cost" when it comes the the financial side of DVC, but at the same time do not add any offset to the consumption value that is inherent to a DVC purchase VS simply buying additional stocks or bonds. Certainly a person needs a financial plan and not merely DVC contracts, but a balanced approach makes sense to me.

Buy DVC for the savings on vacations over the long run along with guaranteeing vacation time with friends and family, it can really be that simple.

 

[bwbuddy5]

Buy DVC for the savings on vacations over the long run along with guaranteeing vacation time with friends and family, it can really be that simple.

Amen, brother (or sister, as the case may be)

 

[OKW Lover]

I think the fact that you asked this question pretty much says the answer is yes.

 

[jekjones1558]

Just to balance off you over-analyzers, there are DVCers like us. We bought on a whim within an hour after just wandering into the BWV model. We didn't ask about the other DVC resort (OKW). We didn't wonder about whether we should purchase resale. We didn't even compare the price for DVC accommodations to the price we were paying for other Disney rooms. We didn't consider future resale value. We didn't try to figure out the best use year. We took the sales guy's advice on a good number of points to buy as a start (220). We liked the room and the BW so we bought totally on emotion. Terrible financial planning but I would be hard-pressed to think of a purchase that has brought us more joy. And to this day BWV remains our favorite resort and October is a perfect use year for us. Ironically, we could sell at a profit if we were so inclined. Sometimes life is upside down.

 

[crisi]

There are three kinds of DVC Disboarders when it comes to the numbers.

The first kind is like Jean - don't care.

The second is the type that likes to play with numbers, have fights about the numbers, figure out if a straight ROI calculation is best, what is the probable salvage value and uses words like NPV. Accountants and other finance geeks. The number puzzle is the fun in it - the results are really just something to talk about. I used to be one of them.

The third kind is the kind that needs to make the numbers work to justify a purchase. DVC will be a stretch, and if they won't save money over what they are doing today and likely to do in the future, DVC could be a burden. Those are the people the second kind need to be careful of when talking their numbers. Because the second kind knows that the interest rate they throw in or if they use NPV or if they calculate average stock market return makes a big difference. And that TCO is another factor that gets left out (TCO in this case being park tickets, airfare, bringing grandma, trying the Poly with those high point values, addonitis, etc.). Finance geeks tend to understand the concept of risk - they may not factor it in or talk to it, but they know its there. The third kind doesn't tend to have the sort of financial knowledge to understand the devil in the details - they'll weight heavily the opinion of the person that sounds knowledgeable and is saying what they want to hear - and frankly, some of the second kind can make it sound like DVC is some sort of magic money bag where you put in a few dollars and gold coins drop out.

I'm now of the opinion that the analysis is this 1) Can you afford DVC EVEN IF it ends up costing you a little money when it all plays out? If no, stop. If yes, proceed to step two. YOU define afford - maybe you really like rice and beans. But do at least consider the overall picture - retirement savings, college savings, your job security, etc. - when figuring what you can afford. 2) Looking at the non-financials, is DVC a good fit - the availability, planning ahead, the room configurations, your travel patterns, what you like in a vacation? If not - stop. If so, continue to research for a few months - and proceed with caution being careful not to snort too much pixie dust.

 

[crisi]

sorry double post

 

[RobbW]

Pshaw! I have NO idea what all this over-analyzing talk is about!

 

[Dean]

Ok, I’ve been a financial geek for over 35 years, and I’ve always joked that if you just let me know what result you want, I can manipulate the numbers to get you there My family and friends joke about how tight I am with my money, but they know I like to splurge and enjoy my vacations.

So, I feel I am qualified to ask: Do we ever over-analyze our DVC purchases? When I bought, I didn’t pay that much attention to what I felt it would be worth down the road if I sold it. I only compared it to what my vacation accommodations would have cost me if I didn’t own DVC.

So, the moral to this post is buy what you want at the price you want, and then don’t beat yourself up about it, and don’t look back; ENJOY! Remember, if Walt had paid much attention to Roy’s “analysis”, we may never have had Disneyland!

What say ye?

Sure but unfortunately far too many don't analyze enough or spend enough time to get educated or get past the emotions. I think it's far better to not buy when it was perfect than to make a bad purchase. Actually over analyzing isn't the problem not acting on the analysis in the correct manner is.

 

[com_op_2000]

So, the moral to this post is buy what you want at the price you want, and then don’t beat yourself up about it, and don’t look back; ENJOY! Remember, if Walt had paid much attention to Roy’s “analysis”, we may never have had Disneyland!

What say ye?

Whoever pays the piper calls the music.

 

[deedisneydream97]

Ok, I’ve been a financial geek for over 35 years, and I’ve always joked that if you just let me know what result you want, I can manipulate the numbers to get you there My family and friends joke about how tight I am with my money, but they know I like to splurge and enjoy my vacations.

So, I feel I am qualified to ask: Do we ever over-analyze our DVC purchases? When I bought, I didn’t pay that much attention to what I felt it would be worth down the road if I sold it. I only compared it to what my vacation accommodations would have cost me if I didn’t own DVC.

So, the moral to this post is buy what you want at the price you want, and then don’t beat yourself up about it, and don’t look back; ENJOY! Remember, if Walt had paid much attention to Roy’s “analysis”, we may never have had Disneyland!

What say ye?

Nope, never overanalyzed on the financial side....more like making sure we had enough points to stay in type of rooms we like and at the resorts we prefer. We are not wealthy people....but we started early and also purchased some resales at good prices. No intention of ever selling, unless some kind of disaster strikes and if our children ever say they could care less about DVC.

Buy DVC for the savings on vacations over the long run along with guaranteeing vacation time with friends and family, it can really be that simple.

Yes, exactly.

 

[zavandor]

Fully understanding the system is an important prerequisite to make a good purchase. It's not only buying DVC or not, but which resort,direct or resale, number of points, UY...
I spent 5 months reading the forums before I purchased and one more year before an addon. Is it over analyzing? It's certainly not an impulse buy, but I think spending less time wouldn't have been wise. And in fact I think I made the best luxury purchase I ever did.
However I do think sometime you can read people trying to cruch the number too much and "bending" the numbers to what they want. People ignore time for value of money, or using full rack rates to compare savings. On the other end of the spectrum people make the assumption that DVC will be worth nothing in 10 years and then cannot justify the savings with that risk. It's a safe assumption, but too safe if it makes you loose on a good deal.
At the end of the day, I enjoy reading all these posts and try to make my own mind about it.
The problem is not over analyzing, the problem is focusing on one kind of calculation instead of keeping an open mind and try to see all the different facets of the problem.

 

[CarolMN]

IMO, DVC is a luxury - as are all other timeshares, and luxuries should only be purchased with discretionary income.

If that's the case, the only "analyzing" I'd do is to compare DVC to the other timeshares that interest me. For us, it wasn't a hard decision since none of the other choices had what we (okay, I) wanted. (OK, I did also compare DVC to vacationing every year at a WDW moderate paying cash and it wasn't hard to make the numbers support what I had already decided to do, LOL).

 

[DVCcurious]

I overanalyze everything. It really annoys my wife when it comes to the lovemaking. "well, according to my spreadsheet we've done position A more than position B or C so we should mix it up tonight"

 

[nabi]

There's more than one?!?! Now I'm curious!

 

[Dean]

IMO, DVC is a luxury - as are all other timeshares, and luxuries should only be purchased with discretionary income.

If that's the case, the only "analyzing" I'd do is to compare DVC to the other timeshares that interest me. For us, it wasn't a hard decision since none of the other choices had what we (okay, I) wanted. (OK, I did also compare DVC to vacationing every year at a WDW moderate paying cash and it wasn't hard to make the numbers support what I had already decided to do, LOL).

To a degree but at the end of the day it's simply a discounted room (hopefully discounted). Personally I think it would be irresponsible to purchase on a whim without having some advanced knowledge of how it fits in. Those that have enough to just throw the money away without thinking about it aren't likely to buy DVC at all, they'll just pash cash likely in suites. But certainly vacations in general, esp Disney, are luxury items.

 

[ziravan]

To a degree but at the end of the day it's simply a discounted room (hopefully discounted). Personally I think it would be irresponsible to purchase on a whim without having some advanced knowledge of how it fits in. Those that have enough to just throw the money away without thinking about it aren't likely to buy DVC at all, they'll just pash cash likely in suites. But certainly vacations in general, esp Disney, are luxury items.

It's more than a discounted room, it's a club. Lol, now I don't mean that in the naive sense that naming it a club intends to instill, but still.

Saying it's just discounted rooms ignores some of the better advantages of DVC.

DVC combined with AP combined with generally cheap flights from SWA Austin to MCO (or an equivalent cost to drive if better airline tix aren't avail), plus being a routine traveler not so much interested in trinkets and knowing how to eat on the economy, all of these things work to make a trip to WDW for $2000 compared to $6-8 grand without all of the above.

And. DVC is the linchpin.

So. Because I can go to WDW for about $2K, we go much more often then if the trip were 3-4X that amount. In fact, that's exactly how much more often we go: 3-4X as much.

DVC changed the way we do Disney. In that way, it really is a club. More to the point of this thread, there's value for me and my family that goes beyond the straight up cost.

Or. As somebody said on a different forum about economics: at the end of the day, you only have one item to trade, your time, and one item to gain, your satisfaction. All economics is some evaluation of that equation.

Is the time you spent to gain your membership worth the satisfaction you get out of it?

In our case, absolutely.

 

[ziravan]

To take the time vs satisfaction argument further: in addition to the time cost of purchasing DVC, every poster in this subforum spends additional time on DVC, here.

Call it hobby or whatever, all of you have at least enough satisfaction, or interest, to extend your time expenditure here.

Dean, if it's just a discounted room, why post so much about it? I know, I know, you want others to discriminate better at whether this is a good fit them. I appreciate that. But, that says to me that you care very much that satisfaction = expenditure.