Are higher direct prices going to increase or decrease resale for some resorts?

[poohbear6]

just want thoughts...higher direct which for a few resorts are substantially higher could that mean lower resale because less people will buy direct for bcv poly gfv and bcv? Thoughts?? I contemplated selling a small bcv and gfv but kids said they want them...

 

[WALTSAGOD]

just want thoughts...higher direct which for a few resorts are substantially higher could that mean lower resale because less people will buy direct for bcv poly gfv and bcv? Thoughts?? I contemplated selling a small bcv and gfv but kids said they want them...

Resale will surely parallel direct.

 

[DisDad-]

The spread between direct vs resale prices for the Poly and GFV has been around $30-$40 per point depending on contract size. With the increases in those resorts, I expect resale prices to rise to the same spreads. So you’re looking at $180-$190 per point. It’ll take a few months to get there as demand will eventually push prices to those levels.

 

[Jelly563]

I cant understand why resale would do anything but go up in price. Ticket prices go up (Superbowl), Stubhub charges more. Price of coffee beans goes up, Starbux raises prices. Price of Oil/gas goes down, price at the pumps STILL goes up.

 

[zavandor]

At some point the price for the 2042 resorts is going to go down. Will less years remaining on the RTU, price will have to be lower and lower to still make sense buying. It seems we have not reached that point yet.

 

[DisDad-]

I believe we’ll see Disney offer extensions on some of those 2042 resorts, especially at the BCV and BWV.
It wouldn’t make any business sense for Disney to let those contracts expire. It would be more profitable and help sustain current price levels to extend the expiration dates on those resorts. Due to their popularity along with changes coming at Epcot and the new lands at Hollywood Studios, you wouldn’t see the same results as what we saw with OKW.

 

[Ben E N]

I believe we’ll see Disney offer extensions on some of those 2042 resorts, especially at the BCV and BWV.
It wouldn’t make any business sense for Disney to let those contracts expire. It would be more profitable and help sustain current price levels to extend the expiration dates on those resorts. Due to their popularity along with changes coming at Epcot and the new lands at Hollywood Studios, you wouldn’t see the same results as what we saw with OKW.

I highly doubt they will extend those two resorts. Riviera will come out with studios costing 20+ points a night. Standard view at BWV for 10 points a night is not sustainable. They will end the contracts, renovate, and sell as "new" with a higher point structure.
It is possible that they extend one for 5-10 years in order to stagger new sales.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I would expect VWL-BRV to really increase next year. It has been undervalued IMO compared to BWV and BCV resales having the same points chart and same end date of 2042.

 

[Ben E N]

I would expect VWL-BRV to really increase next year. It has been undervalued IMO compared to BWV and BCV resales having the same points chart and same end date of 2042.

While it possible, I don't see a huge increase there. It busses to three parks and takes a boat to the 4th.
People love BWV and BCV because of their walkability to two parks, both of which are getting massive improvements over the next 4 years. Very popular with the F&W crowd.

 

[DisDad-]

While it possible, I don't see a huge increase there. It busses to three parks and takes a boat to the 4th.
People love BWV and BCV because of their walkability to two parks, both of which are getting massive improvements over the next 4 years. Very popular with the F&W crowd.

I agree. While BRV at the Wilderness Lodge is a beautiful resort, it location is not as convenient as the monorail or Boardwalk resorts.
The location of those areas is what drives up demand and pricing.

 

[TeresaNJ]

Fingers crossed that BRV resale doesn't increase much more over the next year. Planning on that for my next resale purchase, hopefully within the next 6-8 months!

 

[Ben E N]

Fingers crossed that BRV resale doesn't increase much more pver the next year. Planning on that for my next resale purchase, hopefully within the next 6-8 months!

I'm pretty sure it will increase, though, just due to all the DVC resort direct price increases. I just don't see it going to $120/pt, but I could be wrong. Best of luck to you!

 

[Dtw002]

In 2042 when the resorts expire, who ownes then? I presume DVC but they are still worth a lot of money (buildings, property, etc). Do they have to ‘buy them back’ at the salvage value somehow? Or are the properties just theirs to do whatever they want with?

 

[CraigInPA]

In 2042 when the resorts expire, who ownes then? I presume DVC but they are still worth a lot of money (buildings, property, etc). Do they have to ‘buy them back’ at the salvage value somehow? Or are the properties just theirs to do whatever they want with?

I believe the land is leased from Disney itself, which means the improvements would revert to Disney. BRV, BWV, and BCV are all expiring simultaneously. If Disney put these rooms into CRO, it would negatively affect the "occupancy rate" Disney reports to Wall Street, which could have a negative affect on share price. So, I think it's likely Disney would then enter into a new lease with DVD, which would "re-develop" the property and sell it as new timeshares.

As to whether there will be an extension, or what the extension would be priced at, is anyone's guess for the 2042 properties. My guess is there will not be an extension offered on BWV, BRV, and BCV. DVD will re-develop those properties, and re-sell them at whatever the price is at the time. DVC is committed to running OKW through 2057, with some percentage of contracts expiring in 2042. I think it's likely that there will be an offer to OKW members in the future to buy the 15 year extension once again. In addition, DVC has been buying back OKW contracts, and then reselling them with the extension. This practice will continue. With a 15 year upgrade offer to existing contracts, and DVC's resale of OKW, it's likely that by 2042, there will not be many 2042 OKW contracts still around.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I agree. While BRV at the Wilderness Lodge is a beautiful resort, it location is not as convenient as the monorail or Boardwalk resorts.
The location of those areas is what drives up demand and pricing.

That said, yesterday was the first time I was shut out from booking at BRV in over 10 years of ownership. So demand is there, and the new pool, restaraunts, now paid concierge definitely has increased demand there. Never thought I would have to walk a reservation at VWL-BRV!

 

[Jerry@dvcstore]

As Disney's direct prices increase, the resale market tends to increase as well. The Resales will not increase over night (like Disney), but over time (a month or two) the resale prices will increase. A lot would depend on Disney's Right of Refusal and the supply and demand of the properties.

 

[frabjous]

Resorts that are sold out without an official wait list (VGF, VGC, etc), are going to have a tiny percentage of owners who will have paid the new rates, and so I expect that most owners selling will be willing to accept near where the market is today, since it’s already close to what a direct purchaser originally paid. Additionally I think the premium is high enough relative to other DVC properties, that buyers will be reluctant to meet these significantly higher rates. I expect the biggest influence will be how Disney executes their ROFR relative to these new rates. I predict there won’t be a dramatic change there since they are avoiding selling these in the first place, so don’t have much to gain by pushing the resale price up nor acquiring more inventory.

In short, I predict a modest (10 points or so) increase to VGF and VGC pricing as a result of this.