AP's to get 20 FP+ per quarter

[dadddio]

Perhaps, but not for the headliners. The Rides only have so much ride capacity, and thus only so many FPs available. Once the pre-selections are done, there won't be any left.

We have no way of knowing how many FPs will be left after preselection. We do not know how many FPs there will be in total nor do we know if any will be held back for same-day use or what FP rules will be in effect if same-day FPs are offered.

 

[Robbi]

Well of course there will be leftover fastpasses that can be obtained throughout the day. But those will be for those opting out of the FP+ or for those who haven't used their allotted three. Also, don't forget everybody on the bracelet will have the ability to switch their three FP+ choices out for new ones all day long.

There's no way you can know this. What about offsite guests? If they feel they are being treated as second class, then they won't bring their $$$$ to WDW- something Disney does not want to happen.

 

[mbrittb00]

We have no way of knowing how many FPs will be left after preselection. We do not know how many FPs there will be in total nor do we know if any will be held back for same-day use or what FP rules will be in effect if same-day FPs are offered.

It is a fairly well known fact that most highliner attractions have a daily ride capacity of between 20k and 25k. And that FPs take up approx 80% of that. So for said attraction there will be 16k - 20k FPS. Considering that all the parks hold 3x -5x that number, it is safe to say that most if not all of the FPs for the headliners will be gone prior to anyone entering the park for that day.

 

[Melodious]

It is a fairly well known fact that most highliner attractions have a daily ride capacity of between 20k and 25k. And that FPs take up approx 80% of that. So for said attraction there will be 16k - 20k FPS. Considering that all the parks hold 3x -5x that number, it is safe to say that most if not all of the FPs for the headliners will be gone prior to anyone entering the park for that day.

I don't think we have near enough information to say that. I think it is very possible that some amount of FPs, even headliners will be head back for day of. The system only really works if everyone participates. So I think there will have to be some incentive for last minute day guests, offsite guests, etc, otherwise they'll opt out and the system will fail.

 

[bcrook]

We have no way of knowing how many FPs will be left after preselection. We do not know how many FPs there will be in total nor do we know if any will be held back for same-day use or what FP rules will be in effect if same-day FPs are offered.

Mbrittb00 has sound mathematical logic. Also I don't know how any FP could be held back for the day of. If I went online to book my advanced FP for RnR and I was told that all FP were gone, and then I went to the park to see people grabbing them for day of use, it was weaken the integrity of the FP+.

There's no way you can know this. What about offsite guests? If they feel they are being treated as second class, then they won't bring their $$$$ to WDW- something Disney does not want to happen.

All offsite guests can get the bracelet (or rfid card) and have all access to FP+. Disney wants everyone on the bracelet.

 

[dadddio]

Mbrittb00 has sound mathematical logic. Also I don't know how any FP could be held back for the day of. If I went online to book my advanced FP for RnR and I was told that all FP were gone, and then I went to the park to see people grabbing them for day of use, it was weaken the integrity of the FP+.



All offsite guests can get the bracelet (or rfid card) and have all access to FP+. Disney wants everyone on the bracelet.

The two halves of your post seem contradictory. If the same dayer cannot schedule FPs, he doesn't have 'all access to FPs'.

To your first point, it would all depend on the message that was given when you tried to get the advance FP. They need not say that all FPs are gone. Instead, they can say that none are available for advanced scheduling.

 

[mom2rtk]

So I'm really curious now whether you would even be able to see what FPs are available for advance reservations BEFORE you decide whether to opt into the system. I know right now you can see what ADRs are available before you decide whether to sign up for the dining plan.

Can you imagine the frustration of signing up, then logging in to see that all the headliners were gone, only to find out that if you hadn't opted in, you would have the option at least of getting some same day? But instead of Space and Thunder Mountain, you get Philharmagic and the Tiki Room? I'd probably cancel my package at that point and stay offsite.

I do believe Disney has opened a Pandora's box. It's going to be interesting to see how it goes.

 

[Hollywoodhaha]

How will it work for cast members? When I'm on the college program ill be going In with a cast ID and not sure how that would even work

 

[mbrittb00]

I don't think we have near enough information to say that. I think it is very possible that some amount of FPs, even headliners will be head back for day of. The system only really works if everyone participates. So I think there will have to be some incentive for last minute day guests, offsite guests, etc, otherwise they'll opt out and the system will fail.

Let's say that a particular park has 3 headliners (Epcot for example). And each of those headliners has ~18k FPs avalaible, that's 54k FPs avaliable for the 3 headliners. Now assuming that everyone is limited to select only one of these headliners as part of their advanced FP+ reservations. Now on a typical day 50k-75k people visit Epcot, even if ALL the FPs are used for pre-reservations, there won't be enought for everyone to get one, let alone have some left over for day of.

 

[mbrittb00]

The two halves of your post seem contradictory. If the same dayer cannot schedule FPs, he doesn't have 'all access to FPs'.

To your first point, it would all depend on the message that was given when you tried to get the advance FP. They need not say that all FPs are gone. Instead, they can say that none are available for advanced scheduling.

I beleive the confusion stems from the ideal that off-site people won't be able to reserve FP+ in advance. The T&C clearly states that anyone with a MYW ticket (not just those staying onsite) will be able to make advanced reservations (60 days in advance).

bcrook is simply staying that he/she doesn't see how advances and day of could exist together. If Disney decided to only make so many avalaible for advanced reservations (i.e. hold some back for day of), then at some point during the advanced reservation process they would "run out" of selections. Then, on the day of your visit, everyone beats you to grabbing the remaining FP+ selections, that some may not even have known could be gotten. I don't think those are feelings that Disney wants to deal with.

The other 1/2 of the problem is that if they held some back (say 50%) for use day of, there won't be enough of the headliners for everyone to get one as an advanced reservations. See my previousl Epcot example. If only 50% of those FPs are avaliable for pre-selection, what are the remaining 25k people supposed to select for the top tier selection? Nemo? Living with the Land?

 

[Robo]

I beleive the confusion stems from the ideal that off-site people won't be able to reserve FP+ in advance. The T&C clearly states that anyone with a MYW ticket (not just those staying onsite) will be able to make advanced reservations (60 days in advance).

bcrook is simply staying that he/she doesn't see how advances and day of could exist together. If Disney decided to only make so many avalaible for advanced reservations (i.e. hold some back for day of), then at some point during the advanced reservation process they would "run out" of selections. Then, on the day of your visit, everyone beats you to grabbing the remaining FP+ selections, that some may not even have known could be gotten. I don't think those are feelings that Disney wants to deal with.

The other 1/2 of the problem is that if they held some back (say 50%) for use day of, there won't be enough of the headliners for everyone to get one as an advanced reservations. See my previousl Epcot example. If only 50% of those FPs are avaliable for pre-selection, what are the remaining 25k people supposed to select for the top tier selection? Nemo? Living with the Land?

These are the same points that I (and several others) have been posting.

A- If the "advance reservation FP" system is promoted, to be of value it must have enough FP's to be worth the scheduling.

B- If the "day-of reservation FP" system is to survive, to be of value it must have enough FP's to be worth the scheduling.

I don't see how there could be enough FP's to make both A and B successful simultaneously.

 

[mbrittb00]

These are the same points that I (and several others) have been posting.

A- If the "advance reservation FP" system is promoted, to be of value it must have enough FP's to be worth the scheduling.

B- If the "day-of reservation FP" system is to survive, to be of value it must have enough FP's to be worth the scheduling.

I don't see how there could be enough FP's to make both A and B successful simultaneously.

I have to agree. I'm starting to realize based on the numbers that when we have gone in the past we have gotten more than our "equal" share of FPs, especially for the headliners. I don't feel bad about this in anyway, as everyone one else had the exact same opportunity but either wasn't willing to do what was necessary, or didn't do the proper research, etc. Now while there will still be some people who don't take advantage of FP+ there will be enought that number if FPs we are going to be able to get will be significantly reduced from what we have grown acustome to. That will no doubt have the effect of reducing our enjoyment.

Now with all that said, Disney really doesn't care about people like me. The people who only go once every 4-5 years or once or twice in their lifeimtes is likely to spend more money on souvineers, food etc, than say someone that goes once per year or multiple times per year. I know that there will be exceptions, but that would be the general trend. What if Disney could create a situation where they replace those that come say once per year (i.e. those that spend less per trip) with those who would have other wise only come once in their lifetimes or not at all (i.e. those that would spend more per trip). If they did that in a one trip to one trip swap, they would make more $$.

 

[dadddio]

How will it work for cast members? When I'm on the college program ill be going In with a cast ID and not sure how that would even work

It seems that they could either simply chip your IDs or issue cast members RFID cards. New IDs with RFID chips seem the better solution, but who knows?

 

[doconeill]

Let's say that a particular park has 3 headliners (Epcot for example). And each of those headliners has ~18k FPs avalaible, that's 54k FPs avaliable for the 3 headliners. Now assuming that everyone is limited to select only one of these headliners as part of their advanced FP+ reservations. Now on a typical day 50k-75k people visit Epcot, even if ALL the FPs are used for pre-reservations, there won't be enought for everyone to get one, let alone have some left over for day of.

The flaw here is that while you have reasonable numbers for the number of visitors per day, how accurate is the guess that the headliners only issue 18k FPs a day?

 

[dadddio]

Let's say that a particular park has 3 headliners (Epcot for example). And each of those headliners has ~18k FPs avalaible, that's 54k FPs avaliable for the 3 headliners. Now assuming that everyone is limited to select only one of these headliners as part of their advanced FP+ reservations. Now on a typical day 50k-75k people visit Epcot, even if ALL the FPs are used for pre-reservations, there won't be enought for everyone to get one, let alone have some left over for day of.

Under the current system, using your math, everyone isn't able to obtain a fastpass for their preferred ride, so I guess that I'm not seeing the issue. Just because every single park goer isn't able to obtain a FP (or FP+), doesn't mean that FPs won't (or aren't) offered.

 

[dadddio]

I beleive the confusion stems from the ideal that off-site people won't be able to reserve FP+ in advance. The T&C clearly states that anyone with a MYW ticket (not just those staying onsite) will be able to make advanced reservations (60 days in advance).

In my mind, I was equating 'off-site' in his post with 'same day'. It was clearly a mental disconnect that I was having. Thanks for helping me clear that up.

bcrook is simply staying that he/she doesn't see how advances and day of could exist together. If Disney decided to only make so many avalaible for advanced reservations (i.e. hold some back for day of), then at some point during the advanced reservation process they would "run out" of selections. Then, on the day of your visit, everyone beats you to grabbing the remaining FP+ selections, that some may not even have known could be gotten. I don't think those are feelings that Disney wants to deal with.

We all already deal with this issue when getting an airplane seat assigned or a meal reservation or a golf reservation or a thousand other scenarios. Still, we fly, eat, and play.

The other 1/2 of the problem is that if they held some back (say 50%) for use day of, there won't be enough of the headliners for everyone to get one as an advanced reservations. See my previousl Epcot example. If only 50% of those FPs are avaliable for pre-selection, what are the remaining 25k people supposed to select for the top tier selection? Nemo? Living with the Land?

Interestingly (or not), my family never misses Nemo and the Land, but almost never ride Test Track and only bother with Space about half the time or less. I have little doubt that this will change as the kids get older. My point is, not everyone has the same 'must dos'. My family is very likely to use our advance FP+s on parades, shows and characters (and IASW. My wife isn't leaving the park without riding that ride). Other families will concentrate on 'big three' rides and others will go after whatever their must-dos are.

Either way, they are going to run out of FPs (or FP+s) if every guest wants one for a particular ride. That mere fact hasn't stopped them from offering FPs previously and I don't see why it would necessarily forbid them from offering some amount of same-day FP+s in the future.

 

[dadddio]

I have to agree. I'm starting to realize based on the numbers that when we have gone in the past we have gotten more than our "equal" share of FPs, especially for the headliners. I don't feel bad about this in anyway, as everyone one else had the exact same opportunity but either wasn't willing to do what was necessary, or didn't do the proper research, etc. Now while there will still be some people who don't take advantage of FP+ there will be enought that number if FPs we are going to be able to get will be significantly reduced from what we have grown acustome to. That will no doubt have the effect of reducing our enjoyment.

Now with all that said, Disney really doesn't care about people like me. The people who only go once every 4-5 years or once or twice in their lifeimtes is likely to spend more money on souvineers, food etc, than say someone that goes once per year or multiple times per year. I know that there will be exceptions, but that would be the general trend. What if Disney could create a situation where they replace those that come say once per year (i.e. those that spend less per trip) with those who would have other wise only come once in their lifetimes or not at all (i.e. those that would spend more per trip). If they did that in a one trip to one trip swap, they would make more $$.

Regardless of whether same-day FP+s are offered, it's pretty obvious that the way you and I attack a park will be changed by FP+. We will almost certainly not be able to get as many FPs as before and definitely won't be able to get as many same-ride FPs as before. (The days of riding riding a headliner 5 times in one day without standing in a long line are gone.)

It is also certainly true that the company profits more per visit from a first-time or once-every-several-years visitor then they do from a frequent visitor as our closets are already full of Mickey Ts and hats so we don't buy them very often.

That being said, I don't see this change chasing too many of us (frequent guests) away. The last FP change didn't drive us off. The regular price increases don't drive us off. Massive increases in the price of airline tickets and gas diesn't drive us off. Many of us diehards are going to keep going and adapt to whatever changes come our way. Disney is our happy place.

I also suspect that for every one of us that reaches whatever limit he has and stops being a regular visitor, there will be a person who loves the changes and becomes a regular visitor.

 

[carol-lamb]

Regardless of whether same-day FP+s are offered, it's pretty obvious that the way you and I attack a park will be changed by FP+. We will almost certainly not be able to get as many FPs as before and definitely won't be able to get as many same-ride FPs as before. (The days of riding riding a headliner 5 times in one day without standing in a long line are gone.)

It is also certainly true that the company profits more per visit from a first-time or once-every-several-years visitor then they do from a frequent visitor as our closets are already full of Mickey Ts and hats so we don't buy them very often.

That being said, I don't see this change chasing too many of us (frequent guests) away. The last FP change didn't drive us off. The regular price increases don't drive us off. Massive increases in the price of airline tickets and gas diesn't drive us off. Many of us diehards are going to keep going and adapt to whatever changes come our way. Disney is our happy place.

I also suspect that for every one of us that reaches whatever limit he has and stops being a regular visitor, there will be a person who loves the changes and becomes a regular visitor.

You summed up perfectly what I have been thinking about the new fastpass+. At first I was dreading it becoming a reality and just wished it would go away. Now that I see it is happening, I have decided to go with it and it most likely won't be as bad as I think. I go to WDW about four times a year and if we don't get a "headliner" in on a trip, we don't really care that much because we will plan on doing it on our next trip. That is the one good thing - at least for me - I have done all of the attractions so many times, that I can skip a few of the good ones on a trip and it isn't that big of a deal. I'm more about just being there and the food! I think over time we will all get used to the new system and planning attractions ahead - even though that just seems so stupid to me. We had to get used to it when table service restaurants got so popular when they started the dining plan. I didn't think I would ever want to schedule reservations from home, but now it is normal part of the trip planning process.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Now with all that said, Disney really doesn't care about people like me. The people who only go once every 4-5 years or once or twice in their lifeimtes is likely to spend more money on souvineers, food etc, than say someone that goes once per year or multiple times per year.

I disagree. Disney has always sought to be a cradle-to-grave company; they play a long game with their customers. I'd argue that they are definitely interested in lifetime-spend figures, and you may well be far more valuable than the person who goes once every 4-5 years. Between APs, DVC, TIW, D23, special events, etc., Disney has many offerings for repeat visitors -- there's a reason for this.

Almost everything on DIS about FP+ at this point is conjecture. What we know is that they've built a FLEXIBLE system. Let's see how they use it. (my 2 cents )

These are the same points that I (and several others) have been posting.

A- If the "advance reservation FP" system is promoted, to be of value it must have enough FP's to be worth the scheduling.

B- If the "day-of reservation FP" system is to survive, to be of value it must have enough FP's to be worth the scheduling.

I don't see how there could be enough FP's to make both A and B successful simultaneously.

I guess I don't see how you could have enough info to say this at this point in time. By definition, "enough FP's" for advanced vs. same-day FP's would be driven by demand for each. I can't see how we could have enough info on these boards to accurately estimate what demand will be for different types when this entire system isn't even in place yet.

I'm sure Disney can't be sure about their demand projection models on this at this point... thus the beauty of a flexible system that they can easily adjust as they collect REAL data.

In a bigger picture sense, with any change there is bound to be a percentage of current users who are unhappy -- no matter what adjustments are made subsequent to implementation. That doesn't mean the change isn't still in the long-term best interests of the company (and the majority of current and future customers). Not that anyone here is necessarily arguing the contrary.

Again - just my 2 cents.

 

[mbrittb00]

The flaw here is that while you have reasonable numbers for the number of visitors per day, how accurate is the guess that the headliners only issue 18k FPs a day?

Fairly accurate. Both Sorian' and Mission Space can be calculated with relative accuracy and Test Track can be fairly accurately estimated. Let me take them one at a time.

Here is a link for some reference
http://www.wdwinfo.com/wdwinfo/ridelength.htm


Sorain'The ride itself last approx 5 minutes (or 300 seconds). Add to that about a 90 seconds for unloading, loading, safety system check, etc . . ., and you have a "launch rate" of ~390 seconds. There are two theaters that operate independantly of each other, and they each seat 87 people.

Launch Rate : 390 sec
Vehicles : 2 (since they operate independantly of each other)
Riders per Vehicle : 87

Launches per hour = 9.23 = 3600 (sec/hr) / 390 (sec per launch)
Riders per launch = 174 = 2 * 87

HRC (Hourly Ride Capacity) = Launches per hour * Riders per launch
or 9.23*174 = 1606 Riders per Hour.

Now if we expand that out over a 9am - midnight day (i.e. high season) or 15 hours, we have a daily ride capacity of 24090


Mission Space:
For the ride length, I've seen data stating the ride lengh anywhere from 4 minutes to 6 minutes. Let's take the lower of those two and say the ride is 4 minutes (or 240 sec). Add to that about 90 seconds of loading, unloading, safety check, etc, and you get a launch rate of 330 sec. Mission Space has 4 independant simulators, each holding 40 people. So . . .

Launch Rate : 330 sec
Vehicles : 4 (since they operate independantly of each other)
Riders per Vehicle : 40

Launches per hour = 10.9 = 3600 (sec/hr) / 330 (sec per launch)
Riders per launch = 160 = 4 * 40

HRC (Hourly Ride Capacity) = Launches per hour * Riders per launch
or 10.9 * 160 = 1744 Riders per Hour.

Now if we again expand that out over a 9am - midnight day (i.e. high season) or 15 hours, we have a daily ride capacity of 26160


Test Track:
Test track is a bit different from the other two as it isn't a fixed simulator, where the launch of one vehicle is depending on the launch of the previous vehicle. For attractions like this it doesn't matter how many vehicles are ont he track, it only matter how often a new vehicle is launched (i.e. leaves the safety check) onto the track. vehicles are dependant on each other. For Test Track I would estimate the launch rate to be around 12 seconds. Each car holds 6 people.

Launch Rate : 12 sec
Vehicles : 1 (since they each dependant on each other)
Riders per Vehicle : 6

Launches per hour = 300 = 3600 (sec/hr) / 12 (sec per launch)
Riders per launch = 6

HRC (Hourly Ride Capacity) = Launches per hour * Riders per launch
or 300 * 6 = 1800 Riders per Hour.

Now if we again expand that out over a 9am - midnight day (i.e. high season) or 15 hours, we have a daily ride capacity of 27000


So How many FPs are avaliable? :Now the only real questionable part is what percentage of that ride capcacity is used for FPs. The number I've commonly seend floated around is 80%. I can't really see it being any higher than that, so if we accept the 80% number then the number of FPs are:

Soarin' : 24090 * .80 = 19272
Mission Space : 26160 * .80 = 20928
Test Track : 27000 * .80 = 21600

for a total number of FPs for the three combined = 61800

Also remember that these numbers were taken based on high season operating hours where the typical number of visitors in the park would be in the 60k to 75k range. And while you say that not everyone wants to ride all of those, I would submit that almost everyone will want to ride at least one of them.