The flaw here is that while you have reasonable numbers for the number of visitors per day, how accurate is the guess that the headliners only issue 18k FPs a day?
Fairly accurate. Both Sorian' and Mission Space can be calculated with relative accuracy and Test Track can be fairly accurately estimated. Let me take them one at a time.
Here is a link for some reference
http://www.wdwinfo.com/wdwinfo/ridelength.htm
Sorain'The ride itself last approx 5 minutes (or 300 seconds). Add to that about a 90 seconds for unloading, loading, safety system check, etc . . ., and you have a "launch rate" of ~390 seconds. There are two theaters that operate independantly of each other, and they each seat 87 people.
Launch Rate : 390 sec
Vehicles : 2 (since they operate independantly of each other)
Riders per Vehicle : 87
Launches per hour = 9.23 = 3600 (sec/hr) / 390 (sec per launch)
Riders per launch = 174 = 2 * 87
HRC (Hourly Ride Capacity) = Launches per hour * Riders per launch
or 9.23*174 =
1606 Riders per Hour.
Now if we expand that out over a 9am - midnight day (i.e. high season) or 15 hours, we have a daily ride capacity of
24090
Mission Space:
For the ride length, I've seen data stating the ride lengh anywhere from 4 minutes to 6 minutes. Let's take the lower of those two and say the ride is 4 minutes (or 240 sec). Add to that about 90 seconds of loading, unloading, safety check, etc, and you get a launch rate of 330 sec. Mission Space has 4 independant simulators, each holding 40 people. So . . .
Launch Rate : 330 sec
Vehicles : 4 (since they operate independantly of each other)
Riders per Vehicle : 40
Launches per hour = 10.9 = 3600 (sec/hr) / 330 (sec per launch)
Riders per launch = 160 = 4 * 40
HRC (Hourly Ride Capacity) = Launches per hour * Riders per launch
or 10.9 * 160 =
1744 Riders per Hour.
Now if we again expand that out over a 9am - midnight day (i.e. high season) or 15 hours, we have a daily ride capacity of
26160
Test Track:
Test track is a bit different from the other two as it isn't a fixed simulator, where the launch of one vehicle is depending on the launch of the previous vehicle. For attractions like this it doesn't matter how many vehicles are ont he track, it only matter how often a new vehicle is launched (i.e. leaves the safety check) onto the track. vehicles are dependant on each other. For Test Track I would estimate the launch rate to be around 12 seconds. Each car holds 6 people.
Launch Rate : 12 sec
Vehicles : 1 (since they each dependant on each other)
Riders per Vehicle : 6
Launches per hour = 300 = 3600 (sec/hr) / 12 (sec per launch)
Riders per launch = 6
HRC (Hourly Ride Capacity) = Launches per hour * Riders per launch
or 300 * 6 =
1800 Riders per Hour.
Now if we again expand that out over a 9am - midnight day (i.e. high season) or 15 hours, we have a daily ride capacity of
27000
So How many FPs are avaliable? :Now the only real questionable part is what percentage of that ride capcacity is used for FPs. The number I've commonly seend floated around is 80%. I can't really see it being any higher than that, so if we accept the 80% number then the number of FPs are:
Soarin' : 24090 * .80 = 19272
Mission Space : 26160 * .80 = 20928
Test Track : 27000 * .80 = 21600
for a total number of FPs for the three combined =
61800
Also remember that these numbers were taken based on high season operating hours where the typical number of visitors in the park would be in the 60k to 75k range. And while you say that not everyone wants to ride all of those, I would submit that almost everyone will want to ride at least one of them.