It really depends. Sadly the AP discounts aren't across the board (something that really grinds my gears as it's heavily advertised as a perk) so there's no guarantee that if you book a room now it'll be one that's discounted. Also, the more rooms that are booked at rack rates, the less that Disney will discount when the time comes (because they've been "sold" at full price so there's no point in discounting them). I've gotten some of my best deals the month before I go, probably because either people are cancelling (because they didn't get a discount they were banking on) or Disney discounts more rooms last minute when they're not as full as they'd hoped. If you book in advance you absolutely can call when the discounts come out - just know there's no way to tell if you'll actually get that discount. Sorry I couldn't be more help! What I do is I book a room at the price I can afford. When discounts come out, I look & see if there are any better rooms that are now in my price range, and I keep checking as time goes by.